CUIABA VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT DURING 2014 FIFA WORLD CUP

Note: This vulnerability assessment is disseminated as a product demonstrator that best illustrates our particular services to travellers to higher risk countries. We strive to provide our clients with fidelity of insight that is tailored to their specific destination and requirements. Reports are never reproduced for third party use as circumstances are continually evolving, even for identical endpoints. Two types of reports are usually produced: vulnerability assessments aimed for tourists and distinct assessments for corporations and business travellers. This courtesy report is intended for tourists to the city of Cuiaba, Brazil for the duration of the 2014 FIFA World Cup from 12 June until 13 July. Readers should also note that the following constitutes a condensed and generic variety of what we research, analyze, assess and deliver to the end user. If you have to travel to Cuiaba or other higher risk areas, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

*** Updated 21 May: see para 7 "Health"***

INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This vulnerability assessment provides actionable intelligence for travel to Cuiaba, during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Four findings are identified up front: gang related violence, civil unrest, a high crime rate as well as the presence of health hazards. Upon arrival register at your nearest consulate and exchange contact information. Always leave an updated itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information. Get proper vaccinations prior to travel. Obey direction from local authorities. Safe keep your passport and make copies for re-issue in case of loss. Four matches are scheduled at the Arena Pantanal. Enjoy your worry free vacation!

ASSESSMENT OF THREAT & RISK FACTORS

1.  Government/security forces: The law enforcement agencies that operate in Cuiaba have the reputation for being corrupt and have been accused of human rights violations and some members are known to participate in illegitimate activities such as drug trafficking. Illegal arrests and demands for bribes have been reported. Armed clashes have occurred in the past between police and gangs. To contact the local police dial 190 (military police) or 194. Always inform your nearest consulate if experiencing legal problems. Police capability and readiness remain a concern. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated from government or security forces are assessed as LOW and likely to be collateral in nature. (See annexes A and B for full definitions).

Our recommendations: Use common sense while in Cuiaba. Abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted.

2.  Kidnappings: Kidnappings targeting tourists is a concern during the scheduled games and are likely to be opportunistic. Express kidnappings (a method of abduction that is used to obtain small amounts of money by driving the victim from one ATM to another to withdraw the victim’s account limit) have been reported. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated with kidnappings are assessed as LOW if our recommendations are followed.

Our recommendations: Do not show obvious signs of affluence when in public; avoid wearing watches, jewellery or finer type clothing. Remain in groups when practical and maintain a low profile while enjoying your stay.

3.  Crime: Petty crimes and thefts are common occurrences for Cuiaba.  Thefts from hotel rooms happen. Violent crimes against tourists and locals alike such as homicides, armed assaults, robberies, sexual assaults, and home invasions are regularly reported. There was a 50% increase in murders in the first three months of 2014, mostly driven by drug trafficking. Gangs and organized crime groups are present in the area. Be aware that it is likely that little will be done by law enforcement to recover stolen goods or to resolve actual crimes. The vulnerability factors associated from crimes are assessed as MEDIUM at this time but could be elevated with little or no warning. 
Our recommendations: Be situationally aware of your surroundings. Do not openly handle money. Never openly display your cell phone or other valuables as “snatch and run” crimes can happen. Do not leave any of your personal belongings unattended. Avoid showing signs of affluence. You are advised against public transportation due to pick pockets and being alone especially after sun dawn. Do not offer opportunities to become a victim of crime; consult our booklet for appropriate courses of action.

4.  Biases: There have been reports of discrimination and abuses based on sexual orientation, gender and race. We remind travellers that local culture, religious and social perceptions, opinions and sensitivities can differ from what is accustomed. Brazil has legislated anti-discrimination laws and are fully part of the country's constitution. Nonetheless, assaults and even murders targeting the LGBT community have been reported. The vulnerability factors associated from biases towards tourists are assessed as LOW, if our recommendation is followed.
Our recommendation: Some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary.

 

5. Terrorism/Insurgencies: There are no known terrorist groups operating in Brazil. Insurgent groups have been identified however none are believed to operate in the Cuiaba area. These groups have political motives and would highly unlikely target westerners. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year. The vulnerability factors associated from terrorism or insurgencies to tourists are assessed as NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

6.  Civil unrest/violent protests: The Brazilian franchise of the Black Bloc is the most likely antagonizing group that is likely to cause and stir civil unrest with varying degrees of violence during the FIFA world Cup. Gatherings can be hasty and it is possible to get caught in a crowd without warning. We judge with confidence that demonstrations will occur periodically prior to and during the scheduled games for media attention to various causes. Fights may erupt between fans during games in and out of arena site. The vulnerability factors associated from civil unrest and violent protests to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM, based on indicators available to us at this time.
Our recommendations: Even though it may be difficult, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings as acts of violence can suddenly arise. Be proactive and ask your hotel staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS

7.  Health: Many prevalent diseases are present in Brazil and in the Cuiaba area. Air pollution is also a concern. Local food and water supplies may be contaminated. Poor sanitation exist and is not at western standards. Earlier this month there was a person who reportedly contracted H1N1. Reportedly, Brazil has 1,4 millions cases of Dengue since 2013. Some of those cases were in four of the FIFA host cities while Sao Paolo had over 1000 cases since early May 2014 alone. The hazard factors associated from health and diseases to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Ensure you do consult with your local vaccination clinic for all required immunization prior to travel. If ill go to private clinics while in Cuiaba. To date there are no known vaccines  for Dengue fever. Common sense practices such as drinking from sealed bottles and to avoid consuming ice are prescribed. Purchase medical insurance prior to departure and inquire about the policy limitations.

8.  Risks from climate: Cuiaba does present only one major hazard related to its climate as it is a tropical and highly humid destination which can be challenging for travellers from more temperate climates and the elderly. The months of June and July are usually the coolest (if one considers +20 Celsius as such, plus being in the southern hemisphere). Most of the rainy season is over by the month of June. The hazard factors associated from climactic issues to FIFA fans while in Cuiaba are assessed as LOW.

Our recommendations: The lowest temperatures recorded were at +6 during some nights. Bring a sweater!

9.  Topography: The Cuiaba area sits at less than 200 meters above sea level. Flooding have occured for the Cuiaba river basin, however not for the months of June and July.  Earthquakes have not been recorded recently. There are NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from topographical issues to tourists.

10. Infrastructure: Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected.Hospitals are other medical services are not to western standards. Use taxis of reliability for commuting around the city. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Do choose to fly in/out of Cuiaba. Telecommunications and internet services are modest but usually reliable. Cell phone outages are possible in stadiums for Sao Paolo and Curitiba and 4G networks could very well be affected the most due to lack of antennas to accommodate concentration of fans. As much as 80% of Brazil's hydro power is generated by dams and most areas of the country are presently experiencing a drought. The low reservoir levels have raised the possibility of electricity rationing during the World Cup and while rain is forecasted regularly for the region surrounding Cuiaba for the next two weeks, we still judge that interruptions cannot be discounted. There are NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD factors associated from infrastructure in Cuiaba.

THREAT FACTORS	ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES	LOW
KIDNAPPINGS	LOW
CRIMES & GANGS	MEDIUM
BIASES	LOW
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY	NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS	MEDIUM

HAZARDS	ASSESSMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES	MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS	LOW
TOPOGRAPHY	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD

Our assessment: Crime, civil unrest and health hazards during the FIFA World Cup in Cuiaba are the three main risk factors to tourists. Our overall assessment remains unchanged.

Recommended courses of action: Plan to fly in and out of Cuiaba. Overland travel is not recommended. Be part of a group to/from Arena Pantanal. Hire a taxi from the recommendations of travel forums and blogs or from trusted hotel staff. After sun dawn, it is preferred to stay within the confines of your hotel, which should be fully accredited for safety purposes. Do not forget travel insurance to cover hospitalizations and airline cancellations, etc. Get prescribed immunization associated for travel to Brazil, avoid being a target for crime by heading our recommendations and enjoy your stay in Cuiaba.

Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

 Threat Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No imminent threats have been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threats are mitigated if certain precautions are taken. Risk is assessed at less than 25%.
MEDIUM:  Incentive to carry out hostile intent. This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Review our recommendations. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: High likelihood to commit a hostile act. The associated undertaking is to be avoided. This is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard has been identified.

LOW: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 
MEDIUM: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.
HIGH: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.

Annex B – Terminology

 Our definitions & associated key words

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: Actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.
Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.
Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.
Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.
Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.

References:

Full disclosure and attribution are available upon request.Three confidential sources will be intentionally omitted.

We stand fully behind our accurate assessments.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
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