From 27 April:
1. Kenya update: tourism down for 2nd year: insecurity & declining wildlife blamed. We judge further decline for 2014 as terror acts to be up.
Our comment: The biggest factor will remain the insecurity within Kenya due to terrorism that is mostly attributable to Al-Shabaab. Well publicized spectacular attacks will deter tourists who in return will opt for safer albeit similar destinations such as Botswana.
From 29 March:
2. IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly: "robbery and civil unrest risks remain high for FIFA World Cup". We have articulated this previously on 13 March & 30 January. To have such a trusted intel firm assess same as us, but after we did bring credibility to us.
Our comment: It is always flattering to have a world renowned open source intelligence consultancy organization come to the same conclusions as us. IHS Jane's did so later than us.
From 07 March:
3. Sochi update: we judge that Paralympics to be terror free for Games sites. Out of area events cannot be discounted.
Our comment: We were right. This was based on our same standard analytical procedures that make us successful in keeping our clients safer while abroad.
From 29 January:
4. @HockeyCanada Based on what we know, Sochi Games will be terror free within the Olympic venues. No guarantees for out of area.
Our comment: See above.
From 06 January:
5. "Thai tourism under threat" (http://online.wsj.com - 05 Jan) We accurately assessed this on 18 Dec. Rely on us with confidence; consult us.
Our comment: A few months worth of statistics cannot make a trend of things to come however as 2014 begun, the number of tourists to Thailand has gone down. Two major factors seem to be prevalent: the insurgency in the south of the country as well as the recent public unrest in and around Bangkok. These are likely not to deter some travellers nevertheless several other circumstances may influence. Our tweets are often superficial and additional work is required to have a clearer picture of a particular situation.
From 18 December 2013:
6. @InSightCrime We judge that transnational organized crime aka drug cartels, etc will severely impact governance in Central America. Huge degrade by 2020.
Our comment: We also carry out long term assessments but they usually require a different analytical methodology. Since there are no positive indications upon the biggest focal points such as corruption, law enforcement and effective governance...this is likely to result in security degradation from today's levels.
From 02 December 2013:
7. Thailand: Of the few options available to Thai PM, perhaps calling elections is proper course of action. Either way this week is critical for a solution; Thursday is King Bhumibol Adulyadej's birthday. BTW Thai military has a 18 coup track record since 1930s...
Our comment: Within a week of our tweet being posted, Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved parliament on 09 December and called a snap election set for 02 February. This was not a "gut feeling" or a baseless prediction but made sense and followed our intelligence analysis process.
From 16 November 2013:
8. Malaysia update: Tourists in Sabah state are at a higher risk of kidnap for ransom. Consult us prior to travel there.
Our comment: The kidnapping of a Chinese tourist and a resort employee early in April 2014 illustrates the fidelity of insight that we at PAR-SEC Consulting offer for our clients. This tweet was done following a highly publicized kidnapping of a Taiwanese couple in which the husband was killed. Despite of the time, Sabah was always a high risk for abduction since 2000.
From 03 September 2013:
9. Daily intelligence: more civil unrest to be observed in Bahrain. Contact us prior to travel there.
Our comment: Civil unrest in the Kingdom of Bahrain is making headlines periodically since early 2011. Martial law, curfews and declaring a state of emergency were responses to "civil resistance" that has several causes at the root. It likely debuted during the "Arab spring" that was witnessed across northern Africa. During the bouts of protests, many accusations of human rights violations emerged against the Bahraini authorities, to include detention of children and torture. Soon after our tweet, over 745 protests occurred within the small Gulf country. So far in 2014, several IEDs seem to characterize the unrest to date. The exact number of deaths is difficult to estimate since 2011 but usually agreed upon at well over 100. The majority of Bahrainis are Shia Muslims while the ruling circle and government are mostly Sunni Muslims and Shias are demanding more power.The implication of Iran in Bahrain unrest cannot be discounted...
Our outlook: While not all of our tweets come to realization, one must bear in mind that our tweets constitute small snippets of a bigger picture and we often offer indicators, new information elements that are part of a trend or pattern as well as a predictive element for our followers and clients alike in order to produce insight for awareness purposes. Our intelligence assessments constitute the complete and accurate picture and are available upon request for information from prospective clients.
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