We will go back to some of our tweets of interest
of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we
presented as they affect the security situation of a country. When we
produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed
and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are
identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of
our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that
we do.
From 09 May:
1. Thailand update: We have indications of serious
potential for violence over the week-end. Bangkok again is assessed focal
point. Beware!
2. The week ahead: Street protests with potential
for violence: Brazil, Thailand and India. Consult us for details.
From 14 May:
3. As earlier stated by us: we reiterate to avoid
travel to southern Thailand due to collateral risks from Muslim insurgency.
Our comment: We
have been tweeting indicators to the degrading security situation in the
Kingdom of Thailand since November 2013, which was soon before the mainstream
protests in Bangkok by opposition supporters against what is believed to be
originating from a proposed amnesty bill that was perceived by many to allow
Thaksin Shinawatra (brother of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra) to return
from exile in Dubai to Thailand without facing any jail time. The Kingdom
has a history of popular protests going back as far as 1973 when student riots
in Bangkok brought about the fall of the military government of the time. By
the way, the country has had nine coups since the end of World war two! What it
means for travellers to Thailand is that civil unrest and violent
protests have the potential to affect them with many
collateral risks. Our two tweets dated 09 May were accurate advice for
travellers as large scale pro-Government rallies have been
ongoing in the outer west of Bangkok since 10 May.
Another clear threat to tourism is the existence of
a Muslim insurgency in the south of the country who have been demanding autonomy
from Thailand for the Pattani region, which comprises the southern Thai provinces of
Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, and for the neighboring parts of Songkhla province. Terrorism is not new to the south but
became prominent starting in 2004 following a wave of attacks blamed on
Islamic militants there. Besides of the necessity to avoid travel to
those southern provinces, there are fears that Bangkok could become a regular target
from terror despite of the appearance of recent openings and peace talks.
Our outlook: Some
indicators available to us were misleading when looking at the big
picture which forced us to disprove many in order to remain accurate for our
followers and clients alike. This was due in part to confusing messages from
the Thai military leadership, to less than reliable information sources that
required constant vetting as well as from an information operation campaign
waged by the Shinawatra care taker government. As an example, the
military leadership has been contradictory at times for how it
interpreted the many violent protests and their messaging of staying out
of the discourse and not wishing to intervene while others speculated on the
military's end state of a probable coup. On 15 May, General Prayut
Chan-O-Cha, the Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army, warned that his troops "may need to come out to restore peace and order” while
only four days earlier, he stated that the military would act only as a last
resort.
It is unclear if the security situation will
improve in the short term (six to nine months) however since tourism is a major
part of the country’s revenues we judge with confidence that authorities will
step up measures to protect travellers there and many options are available to
them.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate
research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise
against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can
determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always
free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as
well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
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