Thursday 15 May 2014

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #21 (09 MAY-15 MAY)

We will go back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 09 May:

1. Thailand update: We have indications of serious potential for violence over the week-end. Bangkok again is assessed focal point. Beware!


2. The week ahead: Street protests with potential for violence: Brazil, Thailand and India. Consult us for details.


From 14 May:


3. As earlier stated by us: we reiterate to avoid travel to southern Thailand due to collateral risks from Muslim insurgency.


Our comment: We have been tweeting indicators to the degrading security situation in the Kingdom of Thailand since November 2013, which was soon before the mainstream protests in Bangkok by opposition supporters against what is believed to be originating from a proposed amnesty bill that was perceived by many to allow Thaksin Shinawatra (brother of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra) to return from exile in Dubai to Thailand without facing any jail time. The Kingdom has a history of popular protests going back as far as 1973 when student riots in Bangkok brought about the fall of the military government of the time. By the way, the country has had nine coups since the end of World war two! What it means for travellers to Thailand is that civil unrest and violent protests have the potential to affect them with many collateral risks. Our two tweets dated 09 May were accurate advice for travellers as large scale pro-Government rallies have been ongoing in the outer west of Bangkok since 10 May.
Another clear threat to tourism is the existence of a Muslim insurgency in the south of the country who have been demanding autonomy from Thailand for the Pattani region, which comprises the southern Thai provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, and for the neighboring parts of Songkhla province. Terrorism is not new to the south but became prominent starting in 2004 following a wave of attacks blamed on Islamic militants there. Besides of the necessity to avoid travel to those southern provinces, there are fears that Bangkok could become a regular target from terror despite of the appearance of recent openings and peace talks.

Our outlook: Some indicators available to us were misleading when looking at the big picture which forced us to disprove many in order to remain accurate for our followers and clients alike. This was due in part to confusing messages from the Thai military leadership, to less than reliable information sources that required constant vetting as well as from an information operation campaign waged by the Shinawatra care taker government. As an example, the military leadership has been contradictory at times for how it interpreted the many violent protests and their messaging of staying out of the discourse and not wishing to intervene while others speculated on the military's end state of a probable coup. On 15 May, General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, the Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army, warned that his troops "may need to come out to restore peace and order” while only four days earlier, he stated that the military would act only as a last resort.
It is unclear if the security situation will improve in the short term (six to nine months) however since tourism is a major part of the country’s revenues we judge with confidence that authorities will step up measures to protect travellers there and many options are available to them.




Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com



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