This is the first installment of a weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country.
When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.
The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.
From 26 November:
1. Brazil update: Reports of muggings on beaches becoming more frequent. Rio seems to be top area. Tourists targeted.
Comment: Brazil's economy is deteriorating; today constituted the 6th interest rate hike to curtail inflation. As the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics approach, criminality - especially targeting tourists - is highly likely to escalate.
2. Taiwan update: Risk of contracting H7N9 bird flu mounting in Guangdong. (Source: http://wantchinatimes.com ).
Comment: Health hazards are both difficult to predict and to measure. A comprehensive database is required in order to capture fidelity. Nonetheless this is achievable with the proper technical input, usually medical consultants to achieve our aims.
From 27 November:
3. Thailand: opposition demonstrations spread to other provinces. We assess that demonstrations are unlikely to rise in widespread violence. Street protests are likely the main focus. Unrest affecting tourist areas cannot be discounted. 2010 bloodshed unlikely: lack of indicators.
Comment: Ongoing. Based on past patterns, 2010 violence levels unlikely. Tourist areas may witness civil unrest. Read & head local authorities recommendations to avoid harm. Better yet, always register at your nearest consulate or Embassy.
From 28 November:
4. South Sudan: NGOs should be advised that violent muggings and robbery reports are on the rise for Juba. Criminality rate likely to escalate.
Comment: NGOs and gas & oil contractors should be very cautious about the rising criminality rate that has been escalating in recent weeks. The security situation is likely to degrade with little or no warning.
As always, leave nothing to chance. Consult us prior to travel: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Thursday 28 November 2013
Monday 18 November 2013
A LOOK BACK AT OUR RECORD...
PAR-SEC Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in vulnerability assessments for corporations, NGOs and private travellers to high risk countries. Our background is military intelligence that encompassed both strategic and tactical nature. Who are we?
PAR-SEC Consulting was established in March 2013. Virtually since day one we utilize twitter as a platform in which to offer our followers and the rest of the world insight into what we offer. We pride ourselves in posting indicators of the state of the security situation for countries of high risks to travellers. This is done to provide situational awareness to the public as well as to highlight our firm. Our retweets are often of similar end state.
After eight months in operation, our clients have been extremely well served. In order to establish credibility towards prospective clients we decided to review all our past judgements and see how they stand in an ever changing world.
1. 09 April: "Did you know that civil unrest is possible for 2013 in the Dominican Republic?"
Comment: A standard google search will result in favourable returns to support our statement.
2. 26 July: "Some countries to avoid right now: Saudi Arabia (MERS) from now until November. Lebanon (sectarian violence) for the next 12 months minimum."
Comment: Four months later these two countries are still making headlines for those specific reasons.
3. 31 July: "Did you know that the level of civil unrest in Brazil is lower than the world's average? Expect a peak by 2015, before the Olympics".
Comment: Brazil's security situation has slightly deteriorated since then. We assess that Brazil will further degrade from a civil unrest position and is highly likely to experience a marginal rise in crime.
4. 11 August: "We judge that civil unrest is highly likely for Haiti in the next 12 months. Based on present political instability and the growing socio- economic frustration: perfect for mounting violence."
Comment: Civil unrest ongoing. Instances of violence recurring and mounting.
5. 20 August: "Mounting violence in Honduras very possible with upcoming elections in November."
Comment: Google search results will demonstrate that the likeliness of violence is relevant. Elections within one week.
6. 29 August: "We judge that the security situation in Lebanon could worsen in the next 5 days. Consult us before travelling there.
Comment: Occurred soon after; unrest and violence in and around Tripoli does not constitute country wide unrest. It is likely to be limited to the north in the mid-term. Lebanon should remain stable overall for the next 6 to 9 months.
The tweets reproduction are limited to these six. They are samples of our firm's work.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
PAR-SEC Consulting was established in March 2013. Virtually since day one we utilize twitter as a platform in which to offer our followers and the rest of the world insight into what we offer. We pride ourselves in posting indicators of the state of the security situation for countries of high risks to travellers. This is done to provide situational awareness to the public as well as to highlight our firm. Our retweets are often of similar end state.
After eight months in operation, our clients have been extremely well served. In order to establish credibility towards prospective clients we decided to review all our past judgements and see how they stand in an ever changing world.
1. 09 April: "Did you know that civil unrest is possible for 2013 in the Dominican Republic?"
Comment: A standard google search will result in favourable returns to support our statement.
2. 26 July: "Some countries to avoid right now: Saudi Arabia (MERS) from now until November. Lebanon (sectarian violence) for the next 12 months minimum."
Comment: Four months later these two countries are still making headlines for those specific reasons.
3. 31 July: "Did you know that the level of civil unrest in Brazil is lower than the world's average? Expect a peak by 2015, before the Olympics".
Comment: Brazil's security situation has slightly deteriorated since then. We assess that Brazil will further degrade from a civil unrest position and is highly likely to experience a marginal rise in crime.
4. 11 August: "We judge that civil unrest is highly likely for Haiti in the next 12 months. Based on present political instability and the growing socio- economic frustration: perfect for mounting violence."
Comment: Civil unrest ongoing. Instances of violence recurring and mounting.
5. 20 August: "Mounting violence in Honduras very possible with upcoming elections in November."
Comment: Google search results will demonstrate that the likeliness of violence is relevant. Elections within one week.
6. 29 August: "We judge that the security situation in Lebanon could worsen in the next 5 days. Consult us before travelling there.
Comment: Occurred soon after; unrest and violence in and around Tripoli does not constitute country wide unrest. It is likely to be limited to the north in the mid-term. Lebanon should remain stable overall for the next 6 to 9 months.
The tweets reproduction are limited to these six. They are samples of our firm's work.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
OUR NEW TWITTER POSTS
As of mid November 2013, PAR-SEC Consulting will tweet only a few times daily at the most. Saturdays and Sundays we may tweet, no guarantees. As our work rhythm is focused on research, predictive analysis and intelligence assessments, we have less opportunities to tweet or retweet point form information for travellers to high risk countries. Our tweets will continue to consist of indicators of certain countries under our monitoring focus.
We also thank you for occasional feedback and inquiries.
Thank you.
PAR-SEC Consulting,
Kingston, Canada.
We also thank you for occasional feedback and inquiries.
Thank you.
PAR-SEC Consulting,
Kingston, Canada.
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