We will go
back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further
on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation
of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients,
six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also
analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics
elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples
of the research that we do.
From 14 July:
1. "Hmmm... Richard Branson: " governments should
never publish travel advisories warning its citizens" . More here:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Branson-slams-UK-over-Kenya-travel-advisory/-/539546/2382608/-/xreluz/-/index.html
Our comment: First off our goal will
not be an exercise in criticism but rather to find if Mr. Branson's claim has
merit. On 10 July Richard Branson penned an interesting article on his website that was widely
reported by many media outlets in the following days. Essentially, he titled it
"Why travel advisories hurt countries and help
terrorists". After reading the blog, we retain a few facts of
importance:
A) "No country should ever post blanket travel advisories warning
citizens not to visit another country."
We could not agree more as those advisories - not all -
remain generic and overcautious.
B) "The
Foreign Office is giving a false impression that all of Kenya is too
dangerous to visit."
Again we mostly agree with the statement however given a
clear pattern of past acts of terrorism, coupled with Al-Shabaab's intent
and capability to carry out such attacks in Kenya, at the very least
some parts are highly recommended against for now. In the
future additional areas are likely to suffer from terrorism.
C) "This is effectively a ban on travel, rather than leaving people to make
up their own minds after being given all of the information."
This may be open for interpretation however, as a reminder,
the decision to travel is essentially always the traveler's own
responsibility. Your government has no duty to rescue and/or to repatriate you
back home.
D) "... travel
advisories urging people not to visit countries are exactly what terrorists
want."
In many cases this is true. However this statement is not
necessarily the rule. Several terrorist and insurgent groups have specific
strategies such as a combination of armed attacks on governmental
infrastructure or in the case of other groups, to economically weaken governments. For both cases the aim is to ultimately discredit the legitimacy to govern and to provide for citizens.
E) "We’ve
had our share of terrorist attacks in the UK and are not treated in this shabby
way by other countries."
Terror attacks - always deplorable - are
rare occurrences in the west. Failed attempts can be added to that
very short list but the fact remains that the UK and most other
western countries have specific infrastructure and capabilities in place to mitigate 99% of the
present and future threats to their internal security. For example,
some specific past declarations from the Kenyan leadership towards Al-Shabaab
were openly extravagant and along with other ill-perceived actions ultimately
made al-Shabaab call Jihad on Kenya with the results we all know.
So, what can we make of Mr. Branson's article? Share your comments with us below.
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