Thursday 19 December 2013

WEEKLY ROUND-UP (13 DEC-19 DEC)

We will go back on some of our past week tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.


From 14 December:

1. St-Lucia update: Dengue epidemic possible: 220+ cases? (The Jamaica Observer Online).What does it mean for travelers there? Contact us.

From 16 December:

2. St-Martin (Caribbean) update: 10 cases of chikungunya french side of island. (CDC). Currently no vaccine; consult us for protective measures.
Comment: The presence of various health hazards are always worrisome to travelers.
Standard preventive practices such as vaccines are warranted while all recommendations must be adhered to. The problem remains that risk factors must be analyzed: contagion, epidemics, type of infectious disease, etc have to be identified to assess what is the exact degree of hazard and how can one prevent contraction. When travellers contact us for travel to high risk countries we fully research and identify all threats, risks and hazards and analyse situations separately. We accurately determine vulnerabilities, we generate our assessments and our final recommendations on mitigation or avoidance are articulated to our clients in the form of a confidential vulnerability assessment written report that remains the property of the clients. Real time updates are also forwarded while in country. Disease prevention and avoidance is instrumental in our advice.

From 19 December:

3. Peru update: Policemen accused of extortion arrested. We accurately assessed this on 04 Dec. Rely on us for all travel security requirements.
Comment: Contrary to most other travel security firms or even governments travel advisories websites, we do not report the news; we do not report after fact situations. To report the obvious is meaningless, and lacks critical timeliness for the well being of travelers. What distinguishes us from our competitors is that we provide accurate insight in what is likely to occur for our clients while in high risk countries. We assess what happens next from a vulnerability standpoint. It is too easy to report on a given situation, however to analyze and to eloquently express what it all means while accurately assessing what is likely to happen next is very indicative of our unique services. No gadgets, no gimmicks. We provide the intelligence that our clients fully require for safety and mission success.

We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.


Thursday 12 December 2013

WEEKLY ROUND-UP (06 DEC-12 DEC)

This is our third weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.


From 10 December:

1. Venezuela update: Caracas had over 5 000 murders in 2013 so far. Vulnerability levels remain unchanged. Consult us prior to travel there.
Comment: This is an indicator of many things; socio-economics dynamics as well as the state of the country's overall security situation. In order to understand the extremely high murder numbers for a metro area of approximately 3 million, a few factors must be considered and analysed. Then unbiased conclusions must be drawn. Violent crimes, especially with guns make Venezuela one of the most violent countries. We assess, based on what we know, that the murder rate in Caracas will not lower in the mid- term (2-5 years). Based on how the economic situation evolves, the murder rate is likely to rise during the same period. What does it mean for the business traveller? This should not prevent travel at all to Caracas. However certain requirements are justifiable in order to remain safe and to return home unharmed. That is why a consultation with us is the right decision. Military Commanders entrusted us for their operations successes. So should you.

2.  Hong Kong: H7N9: 19 isolated after contact with man in second bird flu case. Health hazards concerns remain for for area. Monitoring ongoing.
Comment: This constitutes a clear health hazard for a specific and high density populated area. Regardless of the origin or how the authorities deal with the potential outbreak, what matters is how fast and where the flu will spread next.
This is when our clients can rest assured. After we produce a confidential and accurate vulnerability assessment our work is not complete. Our due diligence will extend to daily e-mails or text which can often be unscheduled as a specific hazard or threat warrants an update that supersedes our previous recommendations.

We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

Thursday 5 December 2013

WEEKLY ROUND-UP (29 NOV-05 DEC)

This is our second weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.



From 29 November:

1.  Thailand update: Protesters left Army HQ. No serious acts of violence reported now. Most reports from Bangkok. Tourists areas unaffected at this time. Reminder: some protests can be hasty, unannounced. Avoid crowds, head local authorities instructions.

From 02 December:

2. Thailand: Of the few options available to Thai PM, perhaps calling elections is proper course of action. Either way this week is critical for a solution; Thursday is King Bhumibol Adulyadej's birthday. BTW Thai military has a 18 coup track record since 1930s...
Comment: Protests have toned down just prior to the revered and respected King's birthday on Thursday. Furthermore the military has displayed signs of restraint which are indicative of the will to de-escalate the conflict. Significant pointers that would hint to widespread violence were lacking. Although escalating violence cannot be discounted it presently remains unlikely.

From 03 December:

3. Algeria: Kidnapping warning; in the southern area (Algerian Sahara) AQIM is offering rewards to various persons who are in contact with foreigners or tourists to turn them over. Borders are porous between countries in the Sahel area, this threat is not limited to Algeria.
Comment: Algeria and other northern African regions such as the Maghreb and the Sahel zone present a higher risk to travellers and NGOs for kidnappings. The Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) probably employs this tactic in order to finance its operations, among other things. AQIM and its affiliate groups and brokers have adjusted their tactics and procedures to the evolving threat they face and have proceeded to successfully refine their operations. Therefore not only can close protection services prove ineffective but a proper strategy for NGOs is of vital importance in the first place.

From 04 December:

4.  Peru update: Extortion targeting NGOs & corporations in Trujillo area - and northern Peru have been reported. We judge that it could be attributable to lax law enforcement. The security situation there likely to degrade, based on expanding criminal schemes. Consult us.
Comment: This is typical warning intelligence. We monitor for additional indicators and reports, to include sources on the ground for accurate assessments. Ongoing.

We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our
e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

Thursday 28 November 2013

WEEKLY ROUND-UP (22-28 NOV)

This is the first installment of a weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. 
When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.
The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. 

From 26 November: 
1. Brazil update: Reports of muggings on beaches becoming more frequent. Rio seems to be top area. Tourists targeted.
Comment: Brazil's economy is deteriorating; today constituted the 6th interest rate hike to curtail inflation. As the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics approach, criminality - especially targeting tourists - is highly likely to escalate.

2. Taiwan update: Risk of contracting H7N9 bird flu mounting in Guangdong. (Source: ).
Comment: Health hazards are both difficult to predict and to measure. A comprehensive database is required in order to capture fidelity. Nonetheless this is achievable with the proper technical input, usually medical consultants to achieve our aims.

From 27 November: 

3.  Thailand: opposition demonstrations spread to other provinces. We assess that demonstrations are unlikely to rise in widespread violence. Street protests are likely the main focus. Unrest affecting tourist areas cannot be discounted. 2010 bloodshed unlikely: lack of indicators.
Comment: Ongoing. Based on past patterns, 2010 violence levels unlikely. Tourist areas may witness civil unrest. Read & head local authorities recommendations to avoid harm. Better yet, always register at your nearest consulate or Embassy.

From 28 November: 
4.  South Sudan: NGOs should be advised that violent muggings and robbery reports are on the rise for Juba. Criminality rate likely to escalate.
Comment: NGOs and gas & oil contractors should be very cautious about the rising criminality rate that has been escalating in recent weeks. The security situation is likely to degrade with little or no warning.

As always, leave nothing to chance. Consult us prior to travel: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

Monday 18 November 2013

A LOOK BACK AT OUR RECORD...

PAR-SEC Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in vulnerability assessments for corporations, NGOs and private travellers to high risk countries. Our background is military intelligence that encompassed both strategic and tactical nature.  Who are we?
PAR-SEC Consulting was established  in March 2013. Virtually since day one we utilize twitter as a platform in which to offer our followers and the rest of the world insight into what we offer. We pride ourselves in posting indicators of the state of the security situation for countries of high risks to travellers. This is done to provide situational awareness to the public as well as to highlight our firm. Our retweets are often of similar end state. 
After eight months in operation, our clients have been extremely well served. In order to establish credibility towards prospective clients we decided to review all our past judgements and see how they stand in an ever changing world.

1.  09 April: "Did you know that civil unrest is possible for 2013 in the Dominican Republic?"
Comment: A standard google search will result in favourable returns to support our statement.

2. 26 July: "Some countries to avoid right now: Saudi Arabia (MERS) from now until November. Lebanon (sectarian violence) for the next 12 months minimum."
Comment: Four months later these two countries are still making headlines for those specific reasons.

3. 31 July: "Did you know that the level of civil unrest in Brazil is lower than the world's average? Expect a peak by 2015, before the Olympics".
Comment: Brazil's security situation has slightly deteriorated since then. We assess that Brazil will further degrade from a civil unrest position and is highly likely to experience a marginal rise in crime.

4. 11 August: "We judge that civil unrest is highly likely for Haiti in the next 12 months. Based on present political instability and the growing socio- economic frustration: perfect for mounting violence."
Comment: Civil unrest ongoing. Instances of violence recurring and mounting.

5. 20 August: "Mounting violence in Honduras very possible with upcoming elections in November."
Comment: Google search results will demonstrate that the likeliness of violence is relevant. Elections within one week.

6. 29 August: "We judge that the security situation in Lebanon could worsen in the next 5 days. Consult us before travelling there.
Comment: Occurred soon after; unrest and violence in and around Tripoli does not constitute country wide unrest. It is likely to be limited to the north in the mid-term. Lebanon should remain stable overall for the next 6 to 9 months.

The tweets reproduction are limited to these six. They are samples of our firm's work.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.






OUR NEW TWITTER POSTS

As of mid November 2013, PAR-SEC Consulting will tweet only a few times daily at the most. Saturdays and Sundays we may tweet, no guarantees. As our work rhythm is focused on research, predictive analysis and intelligence assessments, we have less opportunities to tweet or retweet point form information for travellers to high risk countries. Our tweets will continue to consist of indicators of certain countries under our monitoring focus.
We also thank you for occasional feedback and inquiries.

Thank you.

PAR-SEC Consulting,
Kingston, Canada.

Wednesday 25 September 2013

WOULD YOU TRAVEL TO HIGH RISK COUNTRIES IN FULL CONFIDENCE?

Would you travel to high risks countries? If so what preparations would you take? Would there be clear cut parameters? What are the countries you would not travel to?
Would you travel to only certain regions?
Comment below.

Tuesday 20 August 2013

USA PLEASED WITH SECURITY PROGRESS IN HAITI

We came across an interesting article during our daily collation process earlier. It entails that the US Department of State has somewhat downgraded their assessment of the security situation for Haiti.
Some summary: " The United States government says it is softening the wording of its travel warning on Haiti, citing a decrease in crime against visitors in the French-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country." 
Link here: http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5850.html

While we basically agree with the State Department's revised advisory, as no one can argue facts, we nonetheless judge that this advice can easily and without warning be reversed.
They base this on the fact that through the efforts of the Haitian National Police (PNH), there was " a decrease in crime committed against visitors, specifically kidnapping". A decrease that they do not readily quantify.
The Haitian government has recognized that the national recovery and its economic growth should target tourism for much needed revenues and so far it has reportedly made some enthusiastic progress and that tourism remains a clear priority for the long term.
The eventuality of higher flows of tourists into Haiti must be mirrored by a heightened and appropriate security situation. Gangs and criminals in Port-au-Prince will inevitably target any weaknesses to exploit in order to carry out attacks and other violent crimes against tourists. The temptation will be palpable. Unfortunately, the PNH will highly likely be overwhelmed by any heightened levels of security to be provided. One strong indicator of this, for example, is the presence of MINUSTAH there. We are not implying that more tourists will result in more crimes; we are stating that the opportunities will rise. 
The U.S. State Department also adds, perhaps as a caveat, that "future travel warnings will reflect Haiti's progress as it continues to improve the infrastructure in the country."
In reply to this, and based on many indicators, the overall improvement to Haiti's infrastructure has been miserably slow evolving and has not necessarily been conducted in a clear priority to the public's benefits. Hence a growing disenfranchisement from the locals. Add to that the stale (or even worsening) socio-economic situation in which a large segment of the Haitian population is confronted with food insecurities or even the rampant corruption at all levels of government and agencies does not offer any reassuring outcome in the near term.
We do not criticize the travel advisory. We assess that any security improvement is far from a new trend for Haiti.
For more about the country or a vulnerability assessment for travel to Haiti or any other non western country, e-mail us: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Please share with us your comments on this topic.  

Tuesday 6 August 2013

WILL THERE BE A TERROR ATTACK TARGETING THE SOCHI 2014 WINTER OLYMPICS?

Russia has a very limited experience in successfully dealing with Islamist extremists. It has its own homegrown terror networks that are from the Caucasus, incidentally not far from Sochi.Dokka Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate (IK) Islamist insurgency in Russia's North Caucasus called for attacks on Sochi Olympics last month.
Feel free to elaborate on certain factors that could permit to assess on the eventuality of a successful terror attack. Not a plot. You will have to be factual however a few paragraph in the point form will suffice to drive the point!!!

For instance we need to research the past of the IK, its leaders, its claimed past attacks, any trend of success and credibility, etc. Then we need to juxtapose the Russian FSB and judge how it dealt with the IK. Capabilities are also important factors to consider

As a reminder this is NOT an exercise in plotting any horrible scenario, this is not about hatred of Muslims nor Russians nor an endorsement of terrorism but merely an illustration of how intelligence analysts think, research, perceive and their unbiased thought process. Many problems do surface during the analytical process; the need for extraordinary evaluation and to accurately estimate probabilities can mitigate undigested information.

Good luck!


Wednesday 24 July 2013

IRAQI KURDISTAN: A BEAUTIFUL, SAFE TRAVEL DESTINATION

War zones, conflict areas as well as hostile environments are destinations for the independent traveller, NGOs, civilian contractors and freelance journalists. Prior to departure for those destinations, one must always consider all risks and then mitigate those risks. Thorough research, to learn the local language or dialect, to rehearse all necessary precautions (among other eventualities to learn to avoid landmines,  to avoid the  threat of bribery, self-conduct at security forces checkpoints), to consult travel advisories, to familiarize oneself with the local culture... the list is often exhaustive and one can never leave anything to chance. Therefore it is recommended to let a professional firm do the due diligence on your behalf and to analyze the full spectrum of threats and hazards and make all necessary recommendations. That's what we do at PAR-SEC Consulting. So, for example, let us confidently recommend a safe way to travel to Iraq... by visiting the Iraqi Kurdistan!!!

Iraqi Kurdistan is a breathtaking destination that was spared by the war since 2003 and then by the following insurgency post 2011.

Before you travel to Iraqi Kurdistan here are a few generalities to abide to:

  • Stay within Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) controlled territory;
  • Avoid Turkish & Iranian border regions (remain cognizant);
  • Avoid Syrian refugee encampments;
  • Abide to all local rules & customs, and
  • Erbil city (Hawler) has good amenities & bars/restaurants.
Of course, a detailed assessment of all particularities is necessary so please contact us at: 
parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Tuesday 23 July 2013

TODAY'S SAFE TRAVEL TIP

When visiting a foreign country, especially in the Middle East, some eastern European countries as well as some western African countries, always be weary of bazaar or market sellers that have a "great deal" for you. Those are usually unregistered sales merchants that will require you to follow them away from that public area. In most cases the seller wishes to offer contraband products for cheaper. The implications of this prospective purchase can be far reaching if arrested. In certain countries this can lead to expensive fines, or worse: imprisonment. In some other cases, it has led to travellers to be abducted for ransom. Some documented cases include corrupt police officers - in association with the seller - who demanded a bribe when a person would not purchase the contraband, often at a now inflated price by the seller.
The safety tip of the day for these situations are simple: never travel alone. Never. Never be enticed to follow any strangers away from a crowded area, even if the offer is to good to be true, because it usually is. Even when accompanied in a crowded public market, stay well in sight of each other.
For more information about travel safety in non western countries please contact us at: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Thursday 18 July 2013

VULNERABILITY & HAZARD ASSESSMENTS FOR PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC


INFORMATION VALID AS OF: 07 April 2013



***SUPERCEDED!***

See our updated Vulnerability assessment here.



INTRODUCTION & CURRENT SITUATION

1.                    This report is produced for Mr., upon request for information.
Always register at the nearest Embassy or consulate with points of contact information. Always leave an itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information such as hotels, etc. Travellers to the Dominican Republic (DR) should exercise a high degree of caution mainly due to a high crime rate. Hazards associated with health and diseases are higher than in Canada and preventive measures are highly recommended.


ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY FACTORS

2.                    Government/security forces: Reports of criminals impersonating police officers have been reported, particularly after departure from the Las Americas International Airport near Santo Domingo. Similarly it is possible that this may occur in the Punta Cana area. For example, demands for immediate payment of traffic fines were witnessed. Actual cases of security forces or real police officers posing a threat to tourists or demanding bribes remain isolated and therefore vulnerability from government or security forces remain low.

3.                    Kidnappings: Kidnappings continue to be an issue, and the country is becoming a victim to “express kidnappings," a method of abduction that is used to obtain small amounts of money by driving the victim from one ATM to another to withdraw the victim’s account limit. Instances of kidnappings for the Punta Cana area remain rare compared to the capital city area. Therefore the risk of kidnapping is assessed as low.

4.                    Crime: While violent crimes including assault have affected a few foreigners, petty crime is common in urban areas. Thefts have been reported in resorts. Exercise caution and be aware of your surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of affluence, never openly display your cell phone as “snatch and run” crimes are reported and do not leave your personal belongings unattended on the beach. Theft from hotel rooms and hotel room safes has occurred. Some tourists have been victimized in taxis.
Gangs: gangs and organized crime groups are present in the region. Drug traffickers are also active; the DR is a transshipment point for South American drugs destined for the US and Europe. Although there has been an increase in violent crimes and homicides, tourism resorts are unlikely to be targeted. The overall vulnerability from crime is assessed as medium. The risk from crime can be lowered if precautions are taken.

5.                    Biases: No recognized threat to tourists in the vicinity of resorts.

6.                    Terrorism: No terrorist groups are known to operate in the DR, however it is likely a transit point for extremists. Additionally, there are no insurgent groups present that have been identified. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year, however two occurred in 2011. Based on the above, the Punta Cana area is assessed as a low risk from terrorism.

7.            Civil unrest/violent protests: In the past year there have been popular protests against the government – sometimes quite violent and involving the death of protestors. Similar protests and demonstrations are likely during 2013, to include road blocks. Tourists are unlikely to be directly affected but are likely at risk if in the vicinity of large and sudden crowd gatherings. The possibility of such unrest/protests in the area of tourist resorts is assessed as low.


ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS

8.            Health: Dengue fever is endemic to the DR. More than 15,000 suspected cases of cholera and 262 related deaths have been reported in the past few years. There are occasional reports of cases of malaria. Water-borne, food-borne, parasitic and other infectious diseases (including hepatitis, HIV, filariasis and leptospirosis) are prevalent. Medical care in Punta Cana should be adequate for most problems. Due to the above health issues, the risks of being exposed to diseases or contracting a medical disorder are assessed as medium. Take preventive measures such as vaccines and the purchase of medical insurance before travel.

9.            Risks from climate: Tropical storms, tropical depressions and other natural disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and droughts) do occur in the DR. Hurricane season is between the months of May and November. There are two rainy seasons, the heaviest being from May to August. Visitors to the island need to be aware that many buildings may not be in compliance with Canadian codes. Since natural hazards such as earthquakes are unpredictable and that historically, natural disasters have occurred on the Hispaniola Island, the risks from climate are nonetheless evaluated as low.

10.          Topography: The eastern part of Hispaniola Island, which the DR shares with Haiti, is mostly composed of rugged highlands and mountains with fertile valleys. No volcanic activity as well as no landslides was reported in the past year. Therefore there are no recognized hazards associated with the Punta Cana area.

11.          Infrastructure: Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Driving after dark is not recommended due to poor lighting. Public transportation is not recommended. For those planning to drive in the DR, be aware that offensive and defensive driving skills are a necessity. Outside the capital, emergency services range from extremely limited to nonexistent. Telecommunications and internet services are usually reliable. The electricity system capacity is inadequate in many areas and power outages do occur. Do not use tap water or ice in areas away from the resort or hotel, unless otherwise reputed. Hazards associated with the existing infrastructure in the Punta Cana area are assessed as low.




OUTLOOK

12.          While most visits to the Punta Cana area are trouble-free it is recommended to exercise a high degree of caution to ensure a memorable holiday. Do not divulge the name of your hotel or room number to strangers. Avoid unnecessary interaction with strangers. Be aware of the surroundings. Obey local laws. Do not touch unknown animals and insects. Tourists are often considered attractive targets for criminal activity and you should maintain a low profile and never venture alone, especially after dark. Credit card cloning and fraud are common. It’s generally safer to use cash. Safeguard your personal belongings, passports and other travel documents at all times and make photocopies. The tourist police (POLITUR) provide a security presence in tourist areas and first response assistance to tourists. The most significant risk and hazards associated with travel to Punta Cana are from crime, health and diseases. Those factors are assessed at medium and can be alleviated.


VULNERABILITY FACTORS
ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES
LOW
KIDNAPPINGS
LOW
CRIMES & GANGS
MEDIUM
BIASES
NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY
LOW
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS
LOW


HAZARDS
ASSESMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES
MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS
LOW
TOPOGRAPHY
NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE
LOW


Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

Vulnerability Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No threat has been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threat is lessened if certain precautions are taken. Risk is less than 25%.

MEDIUM:  One or more individual(s) has(ve) the incentive to carry out hostile intent.
This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: One or more individual(s) is(are)  highly likely to commit an hostile act. The associated course of action is to be avoided at all costs and is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard(s) have been identified.

LOW: The hazard(s) posed by the mentioned factors are greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 

MEDIUM: The hazard(s) posed by the mentioned factors are such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.

HIGH: The hazard(s) posed by the mentioned factor(s) are such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.


Annex B – Terminology

Definitions

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.

Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.

Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.

Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.

Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.


References were intentionally omitted. In the original document we also had access to two confidential sources.

Contact Par-Sec Consulting for all your travels to non-occidental  or third world countries.

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.