We came across an interesting article during our daily collation process earlier. It entails that the US Department of State has somewhat downgraded their assessment of the security situation for Haiti.
Some summary: " The United States government says it is softening the wording of its travel warning on Haiti, citing a decrease in crime against visitors in the French-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country."
Link here: http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5850.html
While we basically agree with the State Department's revised advisory, as no one can argue facts, we nonetheless judge that this advice can easily and without warning be reversed.
They base this on the fact that through the efforts of the Haitian National Police (PNH), there was " a decrease in crime committed against visitors, specifically kidnapping". A decrease that they do not readily quantify.
The Haitian government has recognized that the national recovery and its economic growth should target tourism for much needed revenues and so far it has reportedly made some enthusiastic progress and that tourism remains a clear priority for the long term.
The eventuality of higher flows of tourists into Haiti must be mirrored by a heightened and appropriate security situation. Gangs and criminals in Port-au-Prince will inevitably target any weaknesses to exploit in order to carry out attacks and other violent crimes against tourists. The temptation will be palpable. Unfortunately, the PNH will highly likely be overwhelmed by any heightened levels of security to be provided. One strong indicator of this, for example, is the presence of MINUSTAH there. We are not implying that more tourists will result in more crimes; we are stating that the opportunities will rise.
The U.S. State Department also adds, perhaps as a caveat, that "future travel warnings will reflect Haiti's progress as it continues to improve the infrastructure in the country."
In reply to this, and based on many indicators, the overall improvement to Haiti's infrastructure has been miserably slow evolving and has not necessarily been conducted in a clear priority to the public's benefits. Hence a growing disenfranchisement from the locals. Add to that the stale (or even worsening) socio-economic situation in which a large segment of the Haitian population is confronted with food insecurities or even the rampant corruption at all levels of government and agencies does not offer any reassuring outcome in the near term.
We do not criticize the travel advisory. We assess that any security improvement is far from a new trend for Haiti.
For more about the country or a vulnerability assessment for travel to Haiti or any other non western country, e-mail us: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Please share with us your comments on this topic.
Tuesday 20 August 2013
Tuesday 6 August 2013
WILL THERE BE A TERROR ATTACK TARGETING THE SOCHI 2014 WINTER OLYMPICS?
Russia has a very limited experience in successfully dealing with Islamist extremists. It has its own homegrown terror networks that are from the Caucasus, incidentally not far from Sochi.Dokka Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate (IK) Islamist insurgency in Russia's North Caucasus called for attacks on Sochi Olympics last month.
Feel free to elaborate on certain factors that could permit to assess on the eventuality of a successful terror attack. Not a plot. You will have to be factual however a few paragraph in the point form will suffice to drive the point!!!
For instance we need to research the past of the IK, its leaders, its claimed past attacks, any trend of success and credibility, etc. Then we need to juxtapose the Russian FSB and judge how it dealt with the IK. Capabilities are also important factors to consider
As a reminder this is NOT an exercise in plotting any horrible scenario, this is not about hatred of Muslims nor Russians nor an endorsement of terrorism but merely an illustration of how intelligence analysts think, research, perceive and their unbiased thought process. Many problems do surface during the analytical process; the need for extraordinary evaluation and to accurately estimate probabilities can mitigate undigested information.
Good luck!
Feel free to elaborate on certain factors that could permit to assess on the eventuality of a successful terror attack. Not a plot. You will have to be factual however a few paragraph in the point form will suffice to drive the point!!!
For instance we need to research the past of the IK, its leaders, its claimed past attacks, any trend of success and credibility, etc. Then we need to juxtapose the Russian FSB and judge how it dealt with the IK. Capabilities are also important factors to consider
As a reminder this is NOT an exercise in plotting any horrible scenario, this is not about hatred of Muslims nor Russians nor an endorsement of terrorism but merely an illustration of how intelligence analysts think, research, perceive and their unbiased thought process. Many problems do surface during the analytical process; the need for extraordinary evaluation and to accurately estimate probabilities can mitigate undigested information.
Good luck!
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