We
will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and
expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the
security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability
assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are
analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed.
If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The
goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research
that we do. This week, our Round-Up will focus on prospective business partnerships with smaller travel agencies, or with any person in the process of starting this type of business.
From 24 March:
1. See how we offer info for travellers found nowhere else: http://par-secconsulting.blogspot.ca/ From assessments to proven advice for some destinations.
2. Are you a small or start up travel agency? We will provide you with a key advantage over your competition!
3. We are actively seeking partnerships with start-up & small travel agencies to provide you with a competitive edge.
From 25 March:
1. Our services to the travel industry include vulnerability assessments
& aspects of travel surety. Ask us how we can make your business
grow!
Our comment: We have implemented a new service that can radically transform certain travel agencies in both competitiveness and popularity. We have observed that many travel professionals actively recommend government travel websites for safety and due diligence to their customers. However, based on the fact that government travel safety websites most always offer their advice and warning after events such as murders, violent protests or a wave of kidnappings have already happened, we know that their services are reactive in nature. Predictive elements or actual assessments of future events are not offered (or extremely rare) for their citizens. Most travel security companies offer similar services to government advice however they also promote an array of different services that are complicated or expensive, because they rarely - if ever - bring a predictive element. Where we are different is that we tell our clients what is likely to affect them while abroad, in a higher risk destination. We do this by studying past trends and patterns but also make sense of what it means for the traveller and we also include an accurate predictive element for what matters for the traveller so they can focus on what is needed. In the end, tourists and business travellers are left hanging for what can negatively affect them while on the ground. They were made aware that a specific area is dangerous based on a particular event. They were probably (hopefully) briefed on what it means for them and how to mitigate and prevent that particular event to happen to them. Besides that they do not know how the security situation will likely evolve and how to be pro-active in order to remain safer while enjoying the trip.
In a nut shell we are different from most travel security firms because we offer accurate assessments for our clients and provide them with easy to implement courses of action. There is a growing demand for these services. Why? Many travel risk management companies (actually the variations in naming is next to appalling!) offer a myriad of services in the hopes of circumventing important information gaps that they cannot answer for their clients. Let's not forget that the world has become - unfortunately - a much more dangerous place.
Our outlook: We are looking for new or small travel agencies for a durable partnership. We simply require that you offer travel packages to higher risk destinations, not countries such as Belgium, Canada, New Zealand, Croatia, etc. We are offering you a competitive edge that surely will empower your enterprise. For us it's all about committing our focus for a travel industry member on a recurring basis, to highlight our new concept in an exclusive manner and to witness the mutual rewards of teamwork. Our services are not meant for all travellers that must travel to unstable regions. Our services are cost effective and we are mindful of the competitive nature of the travel industry. All inquiries will be promptly answered at no obligations on your part. We wish to get our message out and are confident in the exclusivity of our services. As a goodwill gesture we will provide our services for free to any prospective partner as a proof of concept of our services, until they are confident to go forward with us.
If you believe that you are interested in a partnership with us, contact us with no obligations at:
parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Please read this prior to contacting us.
Thursday 27 March 2014
Sunday 23 March 2014
ABOUT INTELLIGENCE
We have noted that many travel risk management companies make a liberal use of the word "intelligence" on their websites, which is part of advertising their numerous services for travellers abroad. We will itemize a few of many examples in this blog post and show that the use of the word intelligence is done erroneously. This will lead many readers to correctly conclude that the use of the term is indicative of a confused understanding of what exactly this important word means. When these companies do not fully grasp the basic elements of the trade while charging their clients expensive amounts of money for various services is ironic in the least...
By definition, intelligence can be outlined as "the gathering or distribution of information, especially secret information", "the collection of information of military or political value" or most evidently " intelligence is information that has been analyzed and refined so that it is useful to policymakers in making decisions". In essence, intelligence is a finished product that must be timely in its dissemination to the user. The key item in intelligence is the presence of a predictive element (an assessment) . In order to fully appreciate what intelligence exactly is, the "intelligence cycle" is a followed process. Depending on the agency or the country, the intelligence cycle typically has four, five or even six steps. We at PAR-SEC Consulting usually use four. They are, in order:
1. Direction;
2. Collection;
3. Processing, and
4. Dissemination.
These four steps constitute transforming raw information into actionable intelligence with a predictive element and delivered in a timely manner.
Direction: This is when our clients retain our services for us to advise them by way of a vulnerability assessment on the potential risks, threats and hazards at their specific destination. Through a request for information, we are able to vet what information is required from our client.
Collection: From our direction we can now collate pertinent information of relevance. We focus entirely on meeting the needs of the client, so the research carried out is usually very extensive. We also carry out "side collection" which can be used to disprove potential assessments due to several reasons such as biases.
Processing: This is probably the most important step in intelligence production. This is the phase in which information is fully exploited and also includes a "so what" factor. Analysis is carried out, the final stage prior to the full assessment (what is likely to occur next) to articulate the intelligence product.
Dissemination: This is when a finished product, referred to as an intelligence document is ready for our client. It must be actionable in nature and it must be timely or the intelligence provided is redundant.
So we now know the essentials about what exactly constitutes intelligence. It must be predictive in nature, its dissemination must be timely and it is the result of the transformation of raw information into an actionable product via analysis.It certainly cannot be confused for anything else! Of course, when we are talking about intelligence, we are referring to open source (OSINT) intelligence, although we generally have access to confidential sources that are on the ground.
This is how several travel risk management or travel security companies use (most properly how they misuse) the word intelligence:
1. "Regional Intelligence Package: Daily updates, incident alerts, regional summaries and special reports on the world’s most volatile and dynamic regions."
Our take: Updates suggest after fact information. The rest of the phrase implies reactive services. No predictive elements and no assessments are volunteered.
2. The Executive Daily Intelligence Brief (...) this is a summary of information and open-sources concerning significant global issues.
Our take: Information summary is not intelligence.
3. The Weekly Intelligence Summary (...) report highlighting major local events and global activity designed to address the different risk areas of your business and its operations.
Our take: This is alike regurgitating news reports tailored for clients.
4. Intelligence is gathered and analysed based on the travellers personal, business and operational travel itinerary to ensure....b
Our take: Intelligence is not gathered. Information is gathered.
We could keep going on this exercise however we believe that at this point, the misuse of the term intelligence has hereby been identified. We could speculate on the reasons why certain terms are bent into different purposes but we cannot avoid the fact that a certain discredit could be attributed to those who do not fully grasp basic comprehension of tools that constitute building blocs of their trade.
We carry out intelligence assessments for our clients. Those assessments are predictive in nature while we also quantify the probability for certain events to occur. We also provide clear courses of actions in order to mitigate risks, threats or hazards that are likely to occur, along with timeliness. We stand fully behind our intelligence assessments.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
By definition, intelligence can be outlined as "the gathering or distribution of information, especially secret information", "the collection of information of military or political value" or most evidently " intelligence is information that has been analyzed and refined so that it is useful to policymakers in making decisions". In essence, intelligence is a finished product that must be timely in its dissemination to the user. The key item in intelligence is the presence of a predictive element (an assessment) . In order to fully appreciate what intelligence exactly is, the "intelligence cycle" is a followed process. Depending on the agency or the country, the intelligence cycle typically has four, five or even six steps. We at PAR-SEC Consulting usually use four. They are, in order:
1. Direction;
2. Collection;
3. Processing, and
4. Dissemination.
These four steps constitute transforming raw information into actionable intelligence with a predictive element and delivered in a timely manner.
Direction: This is when our clients retain our services for us to advise them by way of a vulnerability assessment on the potential risks, threats and hazards at their specific destination. Through a request for information, we are able to vet what information is required from our client.
Collection: From our direction we can now collate pertinent information of relevance. We focus entirely on meeting the needs of the client, so the research carried out is usually very extensive. We also carry out "side collection" which can be used to disprove potential assessments due to several reasons such as biases.
Processing: This is probably the most important step in intelligence production. This is the phase in which information is fully exploited and also includes a "so what" factor. Analysis is carried out, the final stage prior to the full assessment (what is likely to occur next) to articulate the intelligence product.
Dissemination: This is when a finished product, referred to as an intelligence document is ready for our client. It must be actionable in nature and it must be timely or the intelligence provided is redundant.
So we now know the essentials about what exactly constitutes intelligence. It must be predictive in nature, its dissemination must be timely and it is the result of the transformation of raw information into an actionable product via analysis.It certainly cannot be confused for anything else! Of course, when we are talking about intelligence, we are referring to open source (OSINT) intelligence, although we generally have access to confidential sources that are on the ground.
This is how several travel risk management or travel security companies use (most properly how they misuse) the word intelligence:
1. "Regional Intelligence Package: Daily updates, incident alerts, regional summaries and special reports on the world’s most volatile and dynamic regions."
Our take: Updates suggest after fact information. The rest of the phrase implies reactive services. No predictive elements and no assessments are volunteered.
2. The Executive Daily Intelligence Brief (...) this is a summary of information and open-sources concerning significant global issues.
Our take: Information summary is not intelligence.
3. The Weekly Intelligence Summary (...) report highlighting major local events and global activity designed to address the different risk areas of your business and its operations.
Our take: This is alike regurgitating news reports tailored for clients.
4. Intelligence is gathered and analysed based on the travellers personal, business and operational travel itinerary to ensure....b
Our take: Intelligence is not gathered. Information is gathered.
We could keep going on this exercise however we believe that at this point, the misuse of the term intelligence has hereby been identified. We could speculate on the reasons why certain terms are bent into different purposes but we cannot avoid the fact that a certain discredit could be attributed to those who do not fully grasp basic comprehension of tools that constitute building blocs of their trade.
We carry out intelligence assessments for our clients. Those assessments are predictive in nature while we also quantify the probability for certain events to occur. We also provide clear courses of actions in order to mitigate risks, threats or hazards that are likely to occur, along with timeliness. We stand fully behind our intelligence assessments.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Saturday 22 March 2014
TRAVEL HORROR STORIES...
Have you ever travelled somewhere abroad thinking that all would be fine? Have you ever thought that something bad could potentially happen to you? Share some of your anecdotes here in our comments section at the bottom. We have collected several tales of travel that could have went really bad.
Note: This is not about scaring tourists away from where they decide to travel, but is a reminder of the ugly stuff that can happen...
1. Maureen Webster has a great website pertaining to travel safety and risks to Mexico. Read her twitter feed here. She has accumulated countless stories of a well deserved vacation that went bad in Mexico.
2. This story happened to this guy while in Bogota, Colombia: "I had a pretty far out experience on my 1st day in Bogota, Colombia - i had just finished a full day of sightseeing around the city, and onroute back to my hotel @ around 4:30-5pm 2 locals approached from behind, 1 putting a knife to my throat and the other putting a gun to my back, demanding the bag off my back and the money from my pockets - without even having a chance to take my bag off, the guy with the knife cut the straps from my shoulder! then the guy with the gun put the it to my head while emptying my pockets. Before i knew what had happened they were in a car that was trailing behind us (i wasnt even aware it was there!) - it then dawned on me what exactly was in my bag, so through what i guess was frustration & emotion i let out a pretty loud curse word - now im guessing they thought i was shouting @ them, as this prompted them to put the gun out the window and shoot @ me - thankfully missing! but i saw the grass/dirt spit up around 2 metres away from me where the bullets hit - i found new levels of fear that day. Aside from this incident i found Colombia to be an amazing country to travel, and the locals which helped me with the police report are the true faces of the country, but as with many capital cities it has its issues! My advice, dont do anything alone in Bogota, this was my only mistake". (Grammar mistakes are his. We concur with his advice).
3. Crooked cops from Brazil story, just ahead of the FIFA World Cup: "'Roly' was partying it up in Rio de Janeiro with his mate Frank. After a night on the beers at a local backpackers, Roly and Frank hit the streets to take part in the rowdy block party. A Brazilian in a suit approached them and asked if they would be interested in purchasing a certain illegal substance. The obliging young Aussies took him up on his offer, and not a moment later found themselves pushed into the back of a police car. The policemen read the riot act in Portuguese, and rather than driving to the cop station, drove them to a dark alleyway on the outskirts of town. The trio were strip searched, revealing the contraband, a bankcard and 50 real (about $30AUD) in Roly's y-fronts. "They didn't speak any English, but our Portuguese was improving rapidly", says Roly. "If you ever want to learn a language quickly, put yourself in a position where the language is necessary to keep yourself out of a Brazilian prison! The crooked cops began with an offer of a 1000 real pay-out (roughly $700AUD), or a trip to federal prison. We weren't going to settle so easily, so we started to bargain. After a war of attrition we settled on a bribe of 550 real ($350AUD). It was decided that Frank and the businessman would take a taxi to the ATM to get the cash and I would be held hostage by the police at their station. Frank was driven out to the airport, where he swiped his card at an ATM, and watched in horror as it slipped into a gap in the machine and disappeared from sight, never to be seen again. Our freedom had just fallen through the cracks."
By dawn the police had gotten bored with Roly, and decided to send him on his merry way, with his 50 real, no less, to use as cab fare. Meanwhile, Frank was scouring the city in search of mates from the night before that would consider loaning him ransom money. He eventually gathered the bribe, returned to the police station, paid his dues and reunited with his friend."
4. A few scary stories that happened while vacationing in Thailand.
5. Finally, we have an NBC news report about tourists that were kidnapped in Kenya, back in 2011.
There are countless other horror stories that happen worldwide to travellers. They fortunately only constitute 1%. 99% are usually trouble free.
Is this account biased?
Tell us your horror travel story and/or suggestions by commenting below!
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Note: This is not about scaring tourists away from where they decide to travel, but is a reminder of the ugly stuff that can happen...
1. Maureen Webster has a great website pertaining to travel safety and risks to Mexico. Read her twitter feed here. She has accumulated countless stories of a well deserved vacation that went bad in Mexico.
2. This story happened to this guy while in Bogota, Colombia: "I had a pretty far out experience on my 1st day in Bogota, Colombia - i had just finished a full day of sightseeing around the city, and onroute back to my hotel @ around 4:30-5pm 2 locals approached from behind, 1 putting a knife to my throat and the other putting a gun to my back, demanding the bag off my back and the money from my pockets - without even having a chance to take my bag off, the guy with the knife cut the straps from my shoulder! then the guy with the gun put the it to my head while emptying my pockets. Before i knew what had happened they were in a car that was trailing behind us (i wasnt even aware it was there!) - it then dawned on me what exactly was in my bag, so through what i guess was frustration & emotion i let out a pretty loud curse word - now im guessing they thought i was shouting @ them, as this prompted them to put the gun out the window and shoot @ me - thankfully missing! but i saw the grass/dirt spit up around 2 metres away from me where the bullets hit - i found new levels of fear that day. Aside from this incident i found Colombia to be an amazing country to travel, and the locals which helped me with the police report are the true faces of the country, but as with many capital cities it has its issues! My advice, dont do anything alone in Bogota, this was my only mistake". (Grammar mistakes are his. We concur with his advice).
3. Crooked cops from Brazil story, just ahead of the FIFA World Cup: "'Roly' was partying it up in Rio de Janeiro with his mate Frank. After a night on the beers at a local backpackers, Roly and Frank hit the streets to take part in the rowdy block party. A Brazilian in a suit approached them and asked if they would be interested in purchasing a certain illegal substance. The obliging young Aussies took him up on his offer, and not a moment later found themselves pushed into the back of a police car. The policemen read the riot act in Portuguese, and rather than driving to the cop station, drove them to a dark alleyway on the outskirts of town. The trio were strip searched, revealing the contraband, a bankcard and 50 real (about $30AUD) in Roly's y-fronts. "They didn't speak any English, but our Portuguese was improving rapidly", says Roly. "If you ever want to learn a language quickly, put yourself in a position where the language is necessary to keep yourself out of a Brazilian prison! The crooked cops began with an offer of a 1000 real pay-out (roughly $700AUD), or a trip to federal prison. We weren't going to settle so easily, so we started to bargain. After a war of attrition we settled on a bribe of 550 real ($350AUD). It was decided that Frank and the businessman would take a taxi to the ATM to get the cash and I would be held hostage by the police at their station. Frank was driven out to the airport, where he swiped his card at an ATM, and watched in horror as it slipped into a gap in the machine and disappeared from sight, never to be seen again. Our freedom had just fallen through the cracks."
By dawn the police had gotten bored with Roly, and decided to send him on his merry way, with his 50 real, no less, to use as cab fare. Meanwhile, Frank was scouring the city in search of mates from the night before that would consider loaning him ransom money. He eventually gathered the bribe, returned to the police station, paid his dues and reunited with his friend."
4. A few scary stories that happened while vacationing in Thailand.
5. Finally, we have an NBC news report about tourists that were kidnapped in Kenya, back in 2011.
There are countless other horror stories that happen worldwide to travellers. They fortunately only constitute 1%. 99% are usually trouble free.
Is this account biased?
Tell us your horror travel story and/or suggestions by commenting below!
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Thursday 20 March 2014
WEEKLY ROUND-UP #14 (14 MARCH-20 MARCH)
We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.
From 14 March:
1. Travelling soon to Armenia? Just abiding to your gov't travel warnings & advisories will not be enough: many information gaps exist. Consult us to stay safer & find out what your gov't has left out as critical info travellers must need prior & while in Yerevan & [other] areas.
From 15 March:
2. Going to the FIFA World Cup in Brazil? How about your safety? Why can't your government travel warning websites or your trusted travel agency tell you this? We can. Consult us prior to travel to higher risk destinations.
From 18 March:
3. How often your gov't travel advice can be off the mark: Canada's D-FAIT deletes travel warning [terrorism risks] for Sochi on 17 March [now that the Olympics are over]. Nil predictive elements [was ever provided], over cautious advice & important info gaps [were supplied]. Governments are not in the business to assess what could occur next for their citizens while abroad. We identify all info gaps & advise/assess what is likely to occur next & our security recommendations.
Our comment: Your government offers travel tips, services and advice for citizens who travel overseas. Private companies also offer similar services. In fact, there are hundreds of travel risk management companies worldwide these days and they can easily cater to the requirements of all types of travellers; business executives, the rich, tourists, interest groups, company employees, etc. They all have one sole common point: the desire to mitigate security risks of their clients. Some companies offer multiple services such as concierge services, duty of care on behalf of employers, emergency evacuation when it is time sensitive, to address possible unethical conducts to avoid or pre-travel advisories and briefings. Most of those services are very costly and can even be similar to some free services and advice supplied by many governments. Technology plays a great part in the capability of certain of those companies to support their clients while they are abroad. A very simple service of convenience are text alerts or e-mail updates but in some cases it is possible that cell phone coverage is non-existent.... Or internet support is archaic... While it may be true, some companies nonetheless carry titles such as "market leader" or "we use award winning technology" or some companies are very proud to highlight the fact that retired Generals, CEOs or high ranking government officials sit on their board of diectors. Sometimes, the services offered are complicated, are time consuming to execute, can be "gimmicky" in appeal or rarely practical. Often, clients who retain the services of these risk management companies have uncomplicated requirements and they need to know what is required to avoid being hurt, sick and to get out unharmed. They need to know before they travel there and nobody has a crystal ball to see the future.
That's when intelligence comes to play. That is what we do best.
That General on the board of a prestigious risk management company is there for his connections or for his administrative experience, not for his intelligence analytical competences. We will not explain at great length what we do or how we discern and collect information, study trends, analyze or do things in general. We have expanded on these topics in previous blog posts. It is generally admitted that several different intelligence techniques can be used by the hundreds of travel risk management firms out there. We have also concluded that many travel advice websites liberally use the word "intelligence" without making any assessments or offering an outlook! For example a "Travel Risk Intelligence Solution" company has a very confusing use of the word intelligence as they do not remotely come close to offer any assessment for what is likely to occur next for its clients. We have supported with success many military operations in hostile environments, being there ourselves for months at a time, assisting in the planning of combat involving thousands of troops and millions of dollars worth of mission essential equipment. Repeatedly. As former intelligence analysts we spent incalculable amount of time supporting military Commanders in their decision making process to save lives and to prevail. We did not acquire our experience wearing suits and ties, working out of a skyscraper. While we admit that we are not PHDs in geopolitics, international relations or formal academics that have worked for very successful and high profile institutions we offer a service that distinguishes us. Usually most travel risk management companies will tell their clients:
a) What happened, and
b) What it means.
Beyond that, they will want to exercise due diligence and update their clients when new threats, hazards or risks arise. Or... to paraphrase one of those companies, "to inform the client of evolving events often before they happen". Sometimes superfluous advice is provided, while at some other time non-committal assessments are made while using highly academic terminology. Overall most advice is reactive in nature, alike reporting the news and involves updating or modifying the advice they provide as required. While this can be normal, it may lack fundamental insight. This is what we provide for our clients, thus distinguishing us:
a) What happened;
b) What it means, and
c) What is likely to occur next.
As a reminder, we use Twitter mostly as a promotional platform however almost daily we will tweet indicators to the security situation of a country of monitoring interest or concern. Indicators constitute small pieces of raw information with which we can make sense, analyze and transform that information into intelligence. On occasions, not all assessments come to realization and to alleviate this outcome, we constantly carry out monitoring. Sometimes we do freely offer assessments via twitter or on this blog as a public service and for us to establish credibility as a newer travel security advice firm.
We tweeted this on 28 November: "South Sudan: NGOs should be advised that violent muggings and robbery reports are on the rise for Juba. Criminality rate likely to escalate."
In our first Weekly Round-Up we commented: " NGOs and gas & oil contractors should be very cautious about the rising criminality rate that has been escalating in recent weeks. The security situation is likely to degrade with little or no warning." This was not a lucky guess, a result of speculation or "a gut feeling". Within weeks, a political power struggle broke out, a serious security degradation occurred, expats were evacuated and hundreds of local nationals have died since.
This is not unique. We tweeted this on 05 December: " Central African Republic: The rebellion is likely shifting into a religion based conflict. Of the few eventualities, we judge that the region may suffer from the effects of a potential civil war. Worst outcome likely infiltration of AQ affiliated extremists from north." A month later, Amnesty International reported several massacres committed by the Christian group called Anti-Balaka against Muslim civilians (even if the Seleka rebels being Muslim did overthrow the government earlier in 2013, full fledged religious massacres had not begun yet). We all sadly know what is occurring there since. On 21 February we articulated on the probability that "It won't take long before an al-Qaeda offshoot appears in the CAR."
On 19 March (3 1/2 months after our first tweet), a representative of a Crisis Management Assistance company tweeted: "Some more mujahideen warnings issued in response to
By now, most of our followers are aware that we did assess that terror events at the sites of the Sochi Games were highly unlikely to occur. We assessed this accurately beginning back on 09, 11, 29, 30 December, again on 29 January, on 11 February and on 07 March via tweets. Again, these seven tweets did not constitute an "educated guess" on our part because that's when intelligence comes to play and that is what we do best. We are not aware of another travel "risk management company" that accurately assessed this outcome. A very reputed and successful Global Intelligence website based in Texas tweeted this on 29 December: "Today's
Another tweet from an "innovative global security company specialising in travel risk management, consultancy and assistance services" dated 24 February reminded us that `It is impossible to predict when a suicide bombing will occur. We do monitor Lebanon closely and report on incidents asap.` While we basically concur, that admission falls short. Trend analysis could have established a probability for future events, both in time and space and quantifying that probability could also be articulated with varying degrees of confidence.
We have also highlighted our assessed outcome for the 2014 FIFA World Cup to be hosted by Brazil beginning in three months. That information can be found here.
Finally, on 10 February, a gentleman from the RSA tweeted about his own nation: "I predict we'll have our spring in about 7 months".
We will check back in September...
Our outlook: We offer actionable, discreet and accurate vulnerability assessments. We do not offer complicated services of GPS tracking, emergency evacuation services, travel safety reports (your government offers this for free) or other complicated services that are costly and indicative of the reactive nature of most travel "risk management" companies. We, however, provide easy to implement guidelines and recommendations that will enable our clients to have a safe and successful trip. We offer probably the most cost effective advice available for travellers to higher risk countries. Ask us about our services. We are also particularly interested to partner with small, start-up companies that require to operate abroad or to collaborate with travel agencies who specialize in travel to those same destinations. We fully stand behind our intelligence assessments.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Thursday 13 March 2014
WEEKLY ROUND-UP #13 (07 MARCH-13 MARCH)
We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.
From March 10:
1. Brazil update: The gov't has identified up to 5 groups that have hostile intent toward FIFA World Cup; calls for protests to occur starting now. We did assess this via a two part tweet on 27 January. If you are a travel agency booking for FIFA, consult us for details.
Our comment: The threats to the World Cup are likely to be various, highly likely for any of the 12 venues and may come in different forms. Black Block groups will likely take advantage of the high profile of the Cup to organize violent street protests, starting anytime now. Security is reported to include upwards of 100 000 persons, from all security agencies and the military, will include armoured vehicles, drones, street patrols and helicopters. Certain groups such as unions are highly likely to organize strikes and to voice certain grievances as a trigger. Key infrastructure such as airports could see disruptions. The crime rate is likely to elevate due to the opportunities brought by the tens of thousands of additional tourists that will be present at the various venues. Petty crimes, assault and murders are all expected eventualities despite of the high visibility of the security forces that will be in place. Riots in stadiums or in the vicinity of by supporters cannot be discounted. Acts of terrorism by extremists or "lone wolves" may present an attractive instance to act due to the high number of concentrated crowds, however those remain unlikely at this time in the absence of indicators. There are no known terrorist group presently operating within Brazil.
Our outlook: It remains unchanged. It is highly likely that protests with varying degrees of violence will occur on a regular basis and should augment in frequency towards the month of June. A surge of demonstrations during the World Cup seems inevitable for the 12 scheduled locations given the media presence and scrutiny. We judge with confidence that Brazilian security forces will use deadly force if necessary which may trigger an escalation from the crowds.Tourists and other visitors to the many Cup cities are likely to be injured or to be detained if caught in protestor crowds despite of themselves. Any major negative outcome during the World Cup is likely to result in added scrutiny and major security revisions prior to the 2016 XXXI Summer Olympics hosted in Rio de Janeiro.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
From March 10:
1. Brazil update: The gov't has identified up to 5 groups that have hostile intent toward FIFA World Cup; calls for protests to occur starting now. We did assess this via a two part tweet on 27 January. If you are a travel agency booking for FIFA, consult us for details.
Our comment: The threats to the World Cup are likely to be various, highly likely for any of the 12 venues and may come in different forms. Black Block groups will likely take advantage of the high profile of the Cup to organize violent street protests, starting anytime now. Security is reported to include upwards of 100 000 persons, from all security agencies and the military, will include armoured vehicles, drones, street patrols and helicopters. Certain groups such as unions are highly likely to organize strikes and to voice certain grievances as a trigger. Key infrastructure such as airports could see disruptions. The crime rate is likely to elevate due to the opportunities brought by the tens of thousands of additional tourists that will be present at the various venues. Petty crimes, assault and murders are all expected eventualities despite of the high visibility of the security forces that will be in place. Riots in stadiums or in the vicinity of by supporters cannot be discounted. Acts of terrorism by extremists or "lone wolves" may present an attractive instance to act due to the high number of concentrated crowds, however those remain unlikely at this time in the absence of indicators. There are no known terrorist group presently operating within Brazil.
Our outlook: It remains unchanged. It is highly likely that protests with varying degrees of violence will occur on a regular basis and should augment in frequency towards the month of June. A surge of demonstrations during the World Cup seems inevitable for the 12 scheduled locations given the media presence and scrutiny. We judge with confidence that Brazilian security forces will use deadly force if necessary which may trigger an escalation from the crowds.Tourists and other visitors to the many Cup cities are likely to be injured or to be detained if caught in protestor crowds despite of themselves. Any major negative outcome during the World Cup is likely to result in added scrutiny and major security revisions prior to the 2016 XXXI Summer Olympics hosted in Rio de Janeiro.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Wednesday 12 March 2014
ON GOVERNMENT TRAVEL ADVICE
We have randomly chosen two countries for which we, along with five western governments consider at higher risk for travel; Algeria and Lebanon. We will attempt to gather some facts and findings and will analyze what it means for the traveller, along with our conclusions. We will attempt to highlight if consensus and commonality are present and what exactly constitutes their advice and/or recommendations. We will also identify if outlooks, forecasts and assessments are articulated in support of travel.
While many countries could have been selected for this blog post we have chosen Canada, the USA, France, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. For brevity's sake we have omitted hazards and will strictly focus on the risks and threats.
Note: We suggest you google translate France's advice to English.
1. ALGERIA
Canada: There is no nationwide advisory in effect for Algeria. However, you should exercise a high degree of caution due to the risk of civil unrest and the threat of terrorism. Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada (DFAIT) advises against all travel outside major urban centres in Algeria. Terrorist attacks, bandit activity and kidnappings occur in the mountainous region of Kabylia, which includes the wilayas (provinces) of Tizi Ouzou, Bouira, Boumerdes and Bejaia. Armed groups operate in the remote desert areas in the wilayas of Illizi, Tamanrasset, Adrar and Tindouf that border the countries of Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Libya, and there is a risk of terrorism, banditry and kidnapping. LAST UPDATE: 06 March 2014.
USA: The Department of State urges U.S. citizens who travel to Algeria to evaluate carefully the risks posed to their personal safety. There is a high threat of terrorism and kidnappings in Algeria. This kidnapping threat was noted in the Department of State's latest Worldwide Caution. Although the major cities are heavily policed, attacks could still potentially take place. The majority of terrorist attacks, including bombings, false roadblocks, kidnappings, and ambushes occur in areas of the country east and south of Algiers. LAST UPDATE: 06 February 2014.
France: Les déplacements sont formellement déconseillés à nos ressortissants au Sud et au centre de l’Algérie, dans la zone rouge définie par ce site (Scroll to bottom for map). Il en découle a fortiori que tout projet de se rendre au Mali, au Niger ou en Mauritanie par voie terrestre en traversant le territoire algérien est à proscrire absolument. Les déplacements sont déconseillés dans le reste du pays, sauf raison impérative. Les déplacements professionnels et touristiques sont possibles dans les villes d’Alger et de Tipasa, d’Oran et de Tlemcen, sous réserve de faire preuve d’une grande vigilance. LAST UPDATE: 20 January 2014.
United Kingdom: The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to areas within 450km of the Mali and Niger borders, with the exception of Tindouf town and Tamanrasset city, 100km of the Mauritania border and 100km of the Libya and Tunisia borders south of the town of Souk Ahras. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to Tamanrasset city, In Amenas, Tindouf town, the provinces of Boumerdès, Bouira and Tizi Ouzou east of Algiers. LAST UPDATE: 04 March 2014.
New Zealand: There is extreme risk to your security in the border regions with Libya, Mauritania, Mali and Niger due to a heightened threat of terrorism and kidnapping. We advise against all travel to these areas. There is high risk to your security elsewhere in Algeria due to the threat from terrorism and kidnapping and we advise against all tourist and other non-essential travel. LAST UPDATE: 19 March 2013.
Forecasts, outlooks and assessments made: None made for the UK, New Zealand, France, Canada, or the USA.
2. LEBANON
Canada: DFAIT advises against non-essential travel to Lebanon due to heightened tensions and crime. DFAIT advises against all travel to all areas within 10 km of the border with Syria, and to the northern Bekaa Valley, from Rayak northward to the Syrian border (including Britel, Baalbek, Aarsal, Ras Baalbek, Qaa and Hermel), due to incidents linked to the conflict in Syria. DFAIT advises against all travel to the city of Tripoli, due to inter-communal violence, to the Southern suburbs of Beirut, due to the increased threat of terrorist attacks. This includes the areas from south of the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium to the airport, and east of the main airport highway (neighborhoods of Dahieh, Ghobeiry, Chiya, Haret Hraik, Borj Al Brajne, Mraije, Rouais, and Laylake). The main highway to the airport and the airport are excluded from this advisory. DFAIT advises against all travel to areas south of the Litani River, near the border with Israel, due to military activity, to the Palestinian refugee camps, due to an unpredictable security situation and to the area of Abra in the city of Saïda, due to violent clashes between the Lebanese Armed Forces and local militias. LAST UPDATE: 21 February 2014.
USA: The Department of State urges U.S. citizens to avoid all travel to Lebanon because of current safety and security concerns. U.S. citizens living and working in Lebanon should understand that they accept risks in remaining and should carefully consider those risks. The potential for death or injury in Lebanon exists in particular due to the increasing frequency of terrorist bombing attacks throughout the country. Many of the attacks have targeted specific individuals or venues, but in all cases have resulted in death and harm to passersby in the vicinity. Although there is no evidence these attacks were directed specifically at U.S. citizens at this time, there is a real possibility of “wrong place, wrong time” harm to U.S. citizens. LAST UPDATE: 31 January 2014.
France: Compte tenu du climat d’insécurité et de la recrudescence des attentats et des tensions, tout déplacement est déconseillé sauf raison impérative dans la moitié Ouest du pays, où la vigilance renforcée et la prudence restent de mise (Scroll to bottom for map). Formellement déconseillé dans les parties Nord, Est et Sud du Liban, le long de la frontière avec la Syrie et Israël, ainsi que dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, qui est le théâtre d’attentats récurrents depuis l’été 2013. LAST UPDATE: 24 February 2014.
United Kingdom: The FCO advise against all travel to Tripoli, Palestinian refugee camps, within 5km of the Syrian Border, the Hermel Area, including Arsal, Baalbek, the Bekaa Valley east of the Baalbek El Hermel High Way to the Syrian border and down to En Nabi Chit, southern suburbs of Beirut east of the airport road, defined as: south of the sports stadium to the airport, to east of the main airport highway including the neighbourhoods of Ghobeiry, Chuya, Haret, Hraik, Burj Al Brajne, Mraije, Er Rouais and Laylake, southern suburbs of Beirut west of the airport road, defined as: west of the airport highway to the coast, south from Adnan El Hakim Road to Abbas El Mousawi Road. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to Bekaa Valley west of the Baalbek El Hermel High Way, Saida and south of the Litani River. LAST UPDATE: 19 February 2014.
New Zealand: There is extreme risk to your security in Tripoli, the Palestinian refugee camps, within 5km of the Syrian border, in all regions in the northern Beka’a Valley, south of the Litani River and the southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) of Beirut. We advise against all travel to these areas due to the unpredictable security situation, significant threat from terrorism and risk of kidnapping. There is high risk to your security elsewhere in Lebanon and we advise against all tourist and other non-essential travel due to the unpredictable security situation, threat from terrorism and risk of kidnapping. LAST UPDATE: 29 August 2013.
Forecasts, outlooks and assessments made: "Potential for further violence and further attacks are likely" (UK, France). "The security situation in Tripoli remains unpredictable and could change without notice" (Canada). "Sudden outbreaks of violence can occur at any time in the country" (USA). None made by New Zealand.
3. OUR TAKE
For Algeria: We find that the U.S. Dept of State advice also extended to federal employees and did also include common sense advice overall. The New Zealand government recommend that "New Zealanders in Algeria are advised to seek professional security advice before travelling."
For Lebanon: We particularly appreciate the FCO's advice; it is very detailed and very direct, all the while not being too lengthy in the information provided. The same can be said for France, the USA and Canada. Of note is New Zealand's outdated advice.
4. OUR CONCLUSION
Commonality of advice: The general concurrence for Algeria is no travel to areas bordering Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Libya. All advice is based on past events. Also, all stress the importance of keeping informed of the latest news developments (how can one enjoy his/her vacation or focus on the business trip?) and to abide to local authorities. Several recommend against all travel (this can be attributed to deliberate targeting or to be excessively prudent), while Canada and the USA do voice that travel is the sole responsibility of the travellers (meaning that travellers are left alone) to properly evaluate the associated risks. For Algeria, both terrorism and kidnappings are the common threats while the main driver for Lebanon is the poor security situation that is prevailing.
Absence of forecasting or outlooks: Absolutely no outlook is offered by all five governments besides few very non-committal judgements. Serious information gap therefore exist for travellers with clear potential for endangerment.
Requirements for professional security advice: The government of New Zealand is quite explicit about retaining professional guidance prior to travel.
Bottom Line, Up Front (BLUF): No assessments are made with regards to the likely evolution of the security situation that can directly endanger the traveller. Furthermore government advice is admittedly limited in order for travellers to remain safe while abroad and in order to return home unharmed. The perception that all advice is over cautious in nature cannot be made more obvious as governments are not in the business to assess what is likely to occur next for travellers while abroad. We recommend that you consult us prior to travel to higher risk destinations such as Algeria or Lebanon.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
While many countries could have been selected for this blog post we have chosen Canada, the USA, France, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. For brevity's sake we have omitted hazards and will strictly focus on the risks and threats.
Note: We suggest you google translate France's advice to English.
1. ALGERIA
Canada: There is no nationwide advisory in effect for Algeria. However, you should exercise a high degree of caution due to the risk of civil unrest and the threat of terrorism. Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada (DFAIT) advises against all travel outside major urban centres in Algeria. Terrorist attacks, bandit activity and kidnappings occur in the mountainous region of Kabylia, which includes the wilayas (provinces) of Tizi Ouzou, Bouira, Boumerdes and Bejaia. Armed groups operate in the remote desert areas in the wilayas of Illizi, Tamanrasset, Adrar and Tindouf that border the countries of Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Libya, and there is a risk of terrorism, banditry and kidnapping. LAST UPDATE: 06 March 2014.
USA: The Department of State urges U.S. citizens who travel to Algeria to evaluate carefully the risks posed to their personal safety. There is a high threat of terrorism and kidnappings in Algeria. This kidnapping threat was noted in the Department of State's latest Worldwide Caution. Although the major cities are heavily policed, attacks could still potentially take place. The majority of terrorist attacks, including bombings, false roadblocks, kidnappings, and ambushes occur in areas of the country east and south of Algiers. LAST UPDATE: 06 February 2014.
France: Les déplacements sont formellement déconseillés à nos ressortissants au Sud et au centre de l’Algérie, dans la zone rouge définie par ce site (Scroll to bottom for map). Il en découle a fortiori que tout projet de se rendre au Mali, au Niger ou en Mauritanie par voie terrestre en traversant le territoire algérien est à proscrire absolument. Les déplacements sont déconseillés dans le reste du pays, sauf raison impérative. Les déplacements professionnels et touristiques sont possibles dans les villes d’Alger et de Tipasa, d’Oran et de Tlemcen, sous réserve de faire preuve d’une grande vigilance. LAST UPDATE: 20 January 2014.
United Kingdom: The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to areas within 450km of the Mali and Niger borders, with the exception of Tindouf town and Tamanrasset city, 100km of the Mauritania border and 100km of the Libya and Tunisia borders south of the town of Souk Ahras. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to Tamanrasset city, In Amenas, Tindouf town, the provinces of Boumerdès, Bouira and Tizi Ouzou east of Algiers. LAST UPDATE: 04 March 2014.
New Zealand: There is extreme risk to your security in the border regions with Libya, Mauritania, Mali and Niger due to a heightened threat of terrorism and kidnapping. We advise against all travel to these areas. There is high risk to your security elsewhere in Algeria due to the threat from terrorism and kidnapping and we advise against all tourist and other non-essential travel. LAST UPDATE: 19 March 2013.
Forecasts, outlooks and assessments made: None made for the UK, New Zealand, France, Canada, or the USA.
2. LEBANON
Canada: DFAIT advises against non-essential travel to Lebanon due to heightened tensions and crime. DFAIT advises against all travel to all areas within 10 km of the border with Syria, and to the northern Bekaa Valley, from Rayak northward to the Syrian border (including Britel, Baalbek, Aarsal, Ras Baalbek, Qaa and Hermel), due to incidents linked to the conflict in Syria. DFAIT advises against all travel to the city of Tripoli, due to inter-communal violence, to the Southern suburbs of Beirut, due to the increased threat of terrorist attacks. This includes the areas from south of the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium to the airport, and east of the main airport highway (neighborhoods of Dahieh, Ghobeiry, Chiya, Haret Hraik, Borj Al Brajne, Mraije, Rouais, and Laylake). The main highway to the airport and the airport are excluded from this advisory. DFAIT advises against all travel to areas south of the Litani River, near the border with Israel, due to military activity, to the Palestinian refugee camps, due to an unpredictable security situation and to the area of Abra in the city of Saïda, due to violent clashes between the Lebanese Armed Forces and local militias. LAST UPDATE: 21 February 2014.
USA: The Department of State urges U.S. citizens to avoid all travel to Lebanon because of current safety and security concerns. U.S. citizens living and working in Lebanon should understand that they accept risks in remaining and should carefully consider those risks. The potential for death or injury in Lebanon exists in particular due to the increasing frequency of terrorist bombing attacks throughout the country. Many of the attacks have targeted specific individuals or venues, but in all cases have resulted in death and harm to passersby in the vicinity. Although there is no evidence these attacks were directed specifically at U.S. citizens at this time, there is a real possibility of “wrong place, wrong time” harm to U.S. citizens. LAST UPDATE: 31 January 2014.
France: Compte tenu du climat d’insécurité et de la recrudescence des attentats et des tensions, tout déplacement est déconseillé sauf raison impérative dans la moitié Ouest du pays, où la vigilance renforcée et la prudence restent de mise (Scroll to bottom for map). Formellement déconseillé dans les parties Nord, Est et Sud du Liban, le long de la frontière avec la Syrie et Israël, ainsi que dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, qui est le théâtre d’attentats récurrents depuis l’été 2013. LAST UPDATE: 24 February 2014.
United Kingdom: The FCO advise against all travel to Tripoli, Palestinian refugee camps, within 5km of the Syrian Border, the Hermel Area, including Arsal, Baalbek, the Bekaa Valley east of the Baalbek El Hermel High Way to the Syrian border and down to En Nabi Chit, southern suburbs of Beirut east of the airport road, defined as: south of the sports stadium to the airport, to east of the main airport highway including the neighbourhoods of Ghobeiry, Chuya, Haret, Hraik, Burj Al Brajne, Mraije, Er Rouais and Laylake, southern suburbs of Beirut west of the airport road, defined as: west of the airport highway to the coast, south from Adnan El Hakim Road to Abbas El Mousawi Road. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to Bekaa Valley west of the Baalbek El Hermel High Way, Saida and south of the Litani River. LAST UPDATE: 19 February 2014.
New Zealand: There is extreme risk to your security in Tripoli, the Palestinian refugee camps, within 5km of the Syrian border, in all regions in the northern Beka’a Valley, south of the Litani River and the southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) of Beirut. We advise against all travel to these areas due to the unpredictable security situation, significant threat from terrorism and risk of kidnapping. There is high risk to your security elsewhere in Lebanon and we advise against all tourist and other non-essential travel due to the unpredictable security situation, threat from terrorism and risk of kidnapping. LAST UPDATE: 29 August 2013.
Forecasts, outlooks and assessments made: "Potential for further violence and further attacks are likely" (UK, France). "The security situation in Tripoli remains unpredictable and could change without notice" (Canada). "Sudden outbreaks of violence can occur at any time in the country" (USA). None made by New Zealand.
3. OUR TAKE
For Algeria: We find that the U.S. Dept of State advice also extended to federal employees and did also include common sense advice overall. The New Zealand government recommend that "New Zealanders in Algeria are advised to seek professional security advice before travelling."
For Lebanon: We particularly appreciate the FCO's advice; it is very detailed and very direct, all the while not being too lengthy in the information provided. The same can be said for France, the USA and Canada. Of note is New Zealand's outdated advice.
4. OUR CONCLUSION
Commonality of advice: The general concurrence for Algeria is no travel to areas bordering Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Libya. All advice is based on past events. Also, all stress the importance of keeping informed of the latest news developments (how can one enjoy his/her vacation or focus on the business trip?) and to abide to local authorities. Several recommend against all travel (this can be attributed to deliberate targeting or to be excessively prudent), while Canada and the USA do voice that travel is the sole responsibility of the travellers (meaning that travellers are left alone) to properly evaluate the associated risks. For Algeria, both terrorism and kidnappings are the common threats while the main driver for Lebanon is the poor security situation that is prevailing.
Absence of forecasting or outlooks: Absolutely no outlook is offered by all five governments besides few very non-committal judgements. Serious information gap therefore exist for travellers with clear potential for endangerment.
Requirements for professional security advice: The government of New Zealand is quite explicit about retaining professional guidance prior to travel.
Bottom Line, Up Front (BLUF): No assessments are made with regards to the likely evolution of the security situation that can directly endanger the traveller. Furthermore government advice is admittedly limited in order for travellers to remain safe while abroad and in order to return home unharmed. The perception that all advice is over cautious in nature cannot be made more obvious as governments are not in the business to assess what is likely to occur next for travellers while abroad. We recommend that you consult us prior to travel to higher risk destinations such as Algeria or Lebanon.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Friday 7 March 2014
WHEN PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENTS DIFFER....
Sometimes, there are differences in professional opinions with regards to specific topics in many different academic fields. Travel intelligence is no exception. While it is instinctive to engage and debate on the reasons to why a certain assessment is conveyed versus -for example- what it is based on or the analytical process utilized, the perception of the message can lead to confusion or erroneous interpretation. Such a case occurred earlier today in a recommendation we have made on twitter; our position was somewhat questioned (or we hope was misinterpreted for some reason). In order to set the record straight we will articulate our message in a better way than a "point form" tweet. The individual who engaged us is extremely reputable, is a person who we follow on twitter, offers great insight and provides proven credibility. We make this blog post without prejudice and in good faith, to ensure we did not confuse any reader of our twitter feed.
We hereby remind our followers and readers that our tweets are essentially indicators of the security situation for higher risk countries and that they form small pieces of a bigger picture. They are additions, updates, new elements and evolution of the conditions that will negatively affect travellers to a specific destination. Therefore we will defend our standpoint.
From earlier today we tweeted:
"Mexico update: kidnappings were up 300% in La Laguna area in 2013. Area not recommended for any travel. Consult us if travel there is required."
Minutes later we received a reply for the tweet:
"I don't think an increase from 6 to 18 annual cases in a metro area of 1,2 mil people is significant tbh"
To which we tweeted back:
"Justification is about trend setting, indication of degrading security situation and deliberate targeting."
Again, we mostly tweet about indicators and triggers pertaining to the security situation of specific destinations. A puzzle has several hundreds of pieces and one specific piece of information cannot determine a trend. In order to offer more insight into this specific recommendation we will itemise many pieces of information that we have researched in order to validate our work. La Laguna or Comarca Lagunera or also known as the metropolitan zone of la Laguna is an urban area that is situated in northern Mexico, wedged between the states of Coahuila and Durango. This important economic and industrial center is comprised of 15 municipalities: five in Coahuila and 10 in Durango. Torreon is well known. This specific area of Mexico is basically not recommended for travel for tourists. This is generally based on many threat factors and hazards associated with travel there. The U.S. Department of state has this to say about the state of Coahuila:
"Coahuila: Defer non-essential travel to the state of Coahuila. The State of Coahuila continues to experience high rates of violent crimes and narcotics-related murders. TCOs continue to compete for territory and coveted border crossings to the United States. Violent crime, including murder, kidnapping, and armed carjacking, continues to be a major concern in the cities of Torreón, Saltillo, Piedras Negras, Ciudad Acuña, and Monclova. Of particular safety concern are casinos, sportsbooks, or other gambling establishments and adult entertainment establishments, which USG personnel are not permitted to patronize".
Multi sourcing is always the preferred way for researching, documenting and validating information collection. Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada advises against non-essential travel to the northern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo León (except the city of Monterrey), Sinaloa (with the exception of Mazatlán), Sonora (except the cities of Hermosillo, Guaymas/San Carlos and Nogales), and Tamaulipas due to continuously high levels of violence linked to organized crime.
While these government sources are reliable, they are reactive in nature when it comes to properly addressing real time information requirements and guidance for the traveller.
Our tweet earlier today did provide actionable information on a courtesy basis for our followers, clients and the public in order to fill information gaps, to determine the direction in which the security situation of La Laguna is headed, to discern newer trends that are part of our focus and to perform due diligence for travellers to that higher risk destination as a preventative measure. Unsuccessful attempts to disprove our recommendations validate and justify our professional services. While an increase in kidnappings for the La Laguna area rightfully justifies a "so what?" we strive to keep our clients safe. Every information element matters to properly assess what is likely to occur next. We fill a gap for which a demand is rising. We assess that Mexico is highly likely to share the faith of many central American states: long term instability based on the transnational criminal organizations, despite of the "Vigilante" self-defence groups efforts.
We hope that any confusion is therefore mitigated and we thank you for your time.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
We hereby remind our followers and readers that our tweets are essentially indicators of the security situation for higher risk countries and that they form small pieces of a bigger picture. They are additions, updates, new elements and evolution of the conditions that will negatively affect travellers to a specific destination. Therefore we will defend our standpoint.
From earlier today we tweeted:
"Mexico update: kidnappings were up 300% in La Laguna area in 2013. Area not recommended for any travel. Consult us if travel there is required."
Minutes later we received a reply for the tweet:
"I don't think an increase from 6 to 18 annual cases in a metro area of 1,2 mil people is significant tbh"
To which we tweeted back:
"Justification is about trend setting, indication of degrading security situation and deliberate targeting."
Again, we mostly tweet about indicators and triggers pertaining to the security situation of specific destinations. A puzzle has several hundreds of pieces and one specific piece of information cannot determine a trend. In order to offer more insight into this specific recommendation we will itemise many pieces of information that we have researched in order to validate our work. La Laguna or Comarca Lagunera or also known as the metropolitan zone of la Laguna is an urban area that is situated in northern Mexico, wedged between the states of Coahuila and Durango. This important economic and industrial center is comprised of 15 municipalities: five in Coahuila and 10 in Durango. Torreon is well known. This specific area of Mexico is basically not recommended for travel for tourists. This is generally based on many threat factors and hazards associated with travel there. The U.S. Department of state has this to say about the state of Coahuila:
"Coahuila: Defer non-essential travel to the state of Coahuila. The State of Coahuila continues to experience high rates of violent crimes and narcotics-related murders. TCOs continue to compete for territory and coveted border crossings to the United States. Violent crime, including murder, kidnapping, and armed carjacking, continues to be a major concern in the cities of Torreón, Saltillo, Piedras Negras, Ciudad Acuña, and Monclova. Of particular safety concern are casinos, sportsbooks, or other gambling establishments and adult entertainment establishments, which USG personnel are not permitted to patronize".
Multi sourcing is always the preferred way for researching, documenting and validating information collection. Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada advises against non-essential travel to the northern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo León (except the city of Monterrey), Sinaloa (with the exception of Mazatlán), Sonora (except the cities of Hermosillo, Guaymas/San Carlos and Nogales), and Tamaulipas due to continuously high levels of violence linked to organized crime.
While these government sources are reliable, they are reactive in nature when it comes to properly addressing real time information requirements and guidance for the traveller.
- Trend setting is proper insight into what is likely to occur. It is one of many analytical tools available for intelligence professionals.
- Degrading security situation such as murders, increasing reports of kidnappings and criminal activity are obvious clues and do not warrant further explanation. Governmental INACTION to solve crime and corruption are key.
- Deliberate targeting is an aspect that we specifically strive to identify in order to protect our clients. American citizens are actively targeted for kidnappings in that area of Mexico. Other westerners are likely to be confused for Americans, therefore increasing the risk.
Our tweet earlier today did provide actionable information on a courtesy basis for our followers, clients and the public in order to fill information gaps, to determine the direction in which the security situation of La Laguna is headed, to discern newer trends that are part of our focus and to perform due diligence for travellers to that higher risk destination as a preventative measure. Unsuccessful attempts to disprove our recommendations validate and justify our professional services. While an increase in kidnappings for the La Laguna area rightfully justifies a "so what?" we strive to keep our clients safe. Every information element matters to properly assess what is likely to occur next. We fill a gap for which a demand is rising. We assess that Mexico is highly likely to share the faith of many central American states: long term instability based on the transnational criminal organizations, despite of the "Vigilante" self-defence groups efforts.
We hope that any confusion is therefore mitigated and we thank you for your time.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
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