WEEKLY ROUND-UP #23 (23 MAY-29 MAY)

Personal safety while in higher risk countries and regions is a serious matter because our clients stay safer while abroad, but as importantly they return home unharmed. Personal safety also encompasses all forms of risks, threats and hazards. 
We will therefore dedicate this blog post to personal safety while in Brazil for the upcoming 2014 FIFA World Cup. How timely!

Introduction & assessment: Crimes & muggings are the likely threats to travelers during FIFA 2014. Violent protests have emerged in most FIFA host cities. We assess that the government had identified up to five groups that have hostile intent toward FIFA World Cup. As a result there is a direct and collateral risk for injuries if among crowds. There are also health hazards that may negatively affect travellers if certain preventive measures are not taken, usually prior to departure.

THREATS

1.  Protests and demonstrations: Groups such as Black Block will likely take advantage of the high profile of the Cup to organize violent street protests. Tourists and other visitors to the many Cup cities are likely to be injured or to be detained if caught in protester crowds despite of themselves. The crime rate is likely to elevate due to the opportunities brought by the tens of thousands of additional tourists that will be present at the various venues. Riots in stadiums or in the vicinity of by supporters cannot be discounted. 
Our recommendations: While in town, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings and ask your resort/hotel staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

2.  Crimes: Petty crimes, assault, kidnappings and murders are all expected eventualities despite of the high visibility of the security forces that will be in place. You are advised against public transportation due to pick pockets. Some members of the Brazilian security forces are corrupt and beware of crooked cops that may illegally accuse you or detain you against a bribe. Similarly, criminals impersonating police officers have been reported. Please note that reporting crimes to the local authorities may or may not be satisfactorily resolved. Crime is generally not violent if the victim cooperates; carrying a decoy wallet with expired credit cards and some low denomination US dollars in case of armed robbery should alleviate many bad outcomes.
As a deterrent abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted but more importantly remain in groups when practical and maintain a low profile. Travel during the day, in groups and use only reputable taxi companies. Plan to fly in and out of host cities as overland travel is not advisable.

3. Other threats: There have been reports of discrimination and abuses based on sexual orientation, gender and race. Assaults and even murders targeting the LGBT community have been reported and some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary.

HEALTH

4.   Dengue fever: There are a few facts that we know about dengue fever within Brazil; there were 1.4 million reported cases of dengue in 2013, there was a recent outbreak in April 2014 and most of Brazil’s cities have an endemic population of mosquitoes. There is no vaccine or medication that protects against dengue fever and travellers may be at risk and severe cases can be fatal.
Prevention is the best bet against mosquito bites: dress in long sleeves & pants, see a doctor ASAP if you suspect any symptoms, always wear repellent on skin surface and clothes as required, avoid or leave areas if mosquitoes are encountered, avoid being outdoors around sunrise and sunset, when mosquitoes are most active and know that air conditioning and windows with screens will help avoid the pest in your hotel room.

5.  Other hazards: Do not touch unknown animals and insects. Air pollution is a concern. High temperatures and humidity in the north may affect some visitors and hydration can be important. 

Our comment: We regard the personal safety information contained in this blog post as effective but generic. Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to fully advise against the particular threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog. 

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #22 (16 MAY-22 MAY)

We will go back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. The intent behind today's blog post is not to discourage but to inform the reader. 

From 21 May:

@RonanKelly13 @FluTrackers Sao Paolo has reported almost 1000 cases alone in last 2 weeks. Cuiaba, Curitiba, Porto Alegre also high cases.

Our comment: Dengue fever is also known as "break bone fever" and is a mosquito-borne (from the Aedes aegypti mosquito) tropical disease caused by the dengue virus. There are a few facts that we know about dengue fever within Brazil; there were 1.4 million reported cases of dengue in 2013, there was a recent outbreak in April 2014 and most of Brazil’s cities have an endemic population of mosquitoes. Manaus and Sao Paolo seem to be the two cities most at risk from the mosquito borne disease. Recently, Sao Paolo recorded 784 new cases in the first week of May. Three new areas of the south american metropolis have been identified with above normal incidence of the disease: Jaguara, Vila Jacuí and Vila Leopoldina. Additionally, the situation is a cause for concern in Jaguaré, Lapa, Rio Pequeno (all in the west), Carrão (in the east) and Tremembé (in the north) for a grand total of eight such locations in the city and over 5000 cases so far in 2014. Jaguaré (one death reported) and Lapa have the highest cases and should be avoided. The Arena de Sao Paolo, is located in the neighbourhood of Itaquera in the east. Sao Paolo authorities have not disclosed how many more deaths might have happened from the disease. Other cities where cases of dengue have been regularly reported are Natal, Salvador and Fortaleza. Curitiba, Porto Alegre, Cuiaba and Brasilia are deemed to be at lesser risk.

Dengue can cause severe flu-like symptoms and in severe cases can be fatal. There is no vaccine or medication that protects against dengue fever and travellers are at risk in areas where dengue occurs. Symptoms usually occur within 14 days and may include high fever, severe headache, pain behind the eyes, joint and muscle pain and nausea. As a last fact, the FIFA host cities that are situated in the south of the country should experience cooler temperatures and as such it is likely that mosquito activity may be reduced compared to Manaus or Natal.

Our outlook: We have collated much information pertaining to the disease to date. First, Brazil seems to be a hot spot for Dengue. Second, Brazilian authorities have issued statements that were either misguided, over optimistic or erroneous in the past few months, as the FIFA World Cup nears. Regardless of what was said, prevention is the best bet against mosquito bites since there are no vaccines or drugs against dengue. Here are some common sense advice that are likely to protect visitors to Brazil:

• Dress in long sleeves & pants
• See a doctor ASAP if you suspect any symptoms
• Wear repellent on skin surface and clothes as required
• Avoid or leave areas if mosquitoes are encountered
• Avoid being outdoors around sunrise and sunset, when mosquitoes are most active
• Air conditioning and windows with screens will help avoid the pest in your hotel room

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog. 

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #21 (09 MAY-15 MAY)

We will go back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 09 May:

1. Thailand update: We have indications of serious potential for violence over the week-end. Bangkok again is assessed focal point. Beware!

2. The week ahead: Street protests with potential for violence: Brazil, Thailand and India. Consult us for details.

From 14 May:

3. As earlier stated by us: we reiterate to avoid travel to southern Thailand due to collateral risks from Muslim insurgency.

Our comment: We have been tweeting indicators to the degrading security situation in the Kingdom of Thailand since November 2013, which was soon before the mainstream protests in Bangkok by opposition supporters against what is believed to be originating from a proposed amnesty bill that was perceived by many to allow Thaksin Shinawatra (brother of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra) to return from exile in Dubai to Thailand without facing any jail time. The Kingdom has a history of popular protests going back as far as 1973 when student riots in Bangkok brought about the fall of the military government of the time. By the way, the country has had nine coups since the end of World war two! What it means for travellers to Thailand is that civil unrest and violent protests have the potential to affect them with many collateral risks. Our two tweets dated 09 May were accurate advice for travellers as large scale pro-Government rallies have been ongoing in the outer west of Bangkok since 10 May.

Another clear threat to tourism is the existence of a Muslim insurgency in the south of the country who have been demanding autonomy from Thailand for the Pattani region, which comprises the southern Thai provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, and for the neighboring parts of Songkhla province. Terrorism is not new to the south but became prominent starting in 2004 following a wave of attacks blamed on Islamic militants there. Besides of the necessity to avoid travel to those southern provinces, there are fears that Bangkok could become a regular target from terror despite of the appearance of recent openings and peace talks.

Our outlook: Some indicators available to us were misleading when looking at the big picture which forced us to disprove many in order to remain accurate for our followers and clients alike. This was due in part to confusing messages from the Thai military leadership, to less than reliable information sources that required constant vetting as well as from an information operation campaign waged by the Shinawatra care taker government. As an example, the military leadership has been contradictory at times for how it interpreted the many violent protests and their messaging of staying out of the discourse and not wishing to intervene while others speculated on the military's end state of a probable coup. On 15 May, General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, the Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army, warned that his troops "may need to come out to restore peace and order” while only four days earlier, he stated that the military would act only as a last resort.

It is unclear if the security situation will improve in the short term (six to nine months) however since tourism is a major part of the country’s revenues we judge with confidence that authorities will step up measures to protect travellers there and many options are available to them.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #20 (02 MAY-08 MAY)

We will go back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 04 May:

1.  Travel safety tip: Avoid close contacts with camels to help avoid MERS.

From 05 May:

2.  Many Gulf States considering state of emergency due to MERS today. Travellers to area require special prevention measures to avoid virus.

From 06 May: 

3.  Aussie Gov't just published MERS travel info. More reactive advice based on news. We provide accurate MERS-CoV advice since a 26 July tweet.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) is viral respiratory illness first reported in Saudi Arabia in the spring of 2012. It is caused by a coronavirus called MERS-CoV. Most people who have been confirmed to have MERS-CoV infection developed severe acute respiratory illness. They had fever, cough, and shortness of breath. About 30% of these people died.

We at PAR-SEC Consulting (without being medical professionals) have regularly reported on this new illness since July 2013, soon after cases were becoming more frequent and we then began to establish that MERS was not an anomaly or segregated to one specific area but was assessed as a real health hazard to travellers to the Middle East. July 2013 was the month of Ramadan, a time when many traveled to and from Muslim countries of northern Africa as well as the Near East and therefore there was the likelihood of MERS being distributed out of area. The Hajj followed in October when millions of Muslims traveled to Mecca and a significant potential was in place for global propagation, albeit on a relatively small scale.  

Regardless of statistics and speculative discourse we now know a few important factors for which travellers to the Middle East have a need to know:

• To date 85% of cases originated from Saudi Arabia
• Camels are believed to be carriers of a MERS anti-virus but also vectors of the disease
• There is no specific drug or vaccine available for the MERS-CoV
• Medically considered a disease & not SARS like

Our comment: As of 2 May 2014, MERS-CoV cases have been reported in several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, the Philippines, and the United States. Our research has shown that as of 08 May, there were over 525 cases reported globally and approximately 140 deaths. 449 cases of MERS were localized in Saudi Arabia followed by less than 50 for the U.A.E.  In less than 10 months MERS cases have now more than tripled. MERS is known to spread from human to human, especially while in close contact in an airborne manner through the respiratory system.The exact source of MERS remains unknown but camels or bats are the likely suspects.

Our outlook: Due diligence must be carried out by travellers with respect to MERS, similarly to many other diseases and other health hazards. We believe that MERS cases will keep evolving in numbers and are likely to spread to new countries globally, however there are no needs to cancel planned trips to the Middle East or to drastically change any business plans.

We recommend that travellers wash their hands frequently, avoid close contacts with ill persons that may be prone to couching, etc. Furthermore, avoid contacts with camels and refrain to ride them as a precautionary measure. If you have a coughing bout, respiratory issues such as shortness of breath or develop a fever after returning from a Middle eastern country, you should seek immediate medical help and disclose your travels.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #19 (25 APRIL-01 MAY)

We usually go back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week in order to expand further on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation of a country. This week we will do it differently and go back as far as last year. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 27 April: 

1.  Kenya update: tourism down for 2nd year: insecurity & declining wildlife blamed. We judge further decline for 2014 as terror acts to be up.
Our comment: The biggest factor will remain the insecurity within Kenya due to terrorism that is mostly attributable to Al-Shabaab. Well publicized spectacular attacks will deter tourists who in return will opt for safer albeit similar destinations such as Botswana.

From 29 March:

2. IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly: "robbery and civil unrest risks remain high for FIFA World Cup". We have articulated this previously on 13 March & 30 January. To have such a trusted intel firm assess same as us, but after we did bring credibility to us.
Our comment: It is always flattering to have a world renowned open source intelligence consultancy organization come to the same conclusions as us. IHS Jane's did so later than us.

From 07 March:

3. Sochi update: we judge that Paralympics to be terror free for Games sites. Out of area events cannot be discounted.
Our comment: We were right. This was based on our same standard analytical procedures that make us successful in keeping our clients safer while abroad.

From 29 January:

4. @HockeyCanada Based on what we know, Sochi Games will be terror free within the Olympic venues. No guarantees for out of area.
Our comment: See above.

From 06 January:

5. "Thai tourism under threat" (http://online.wsj.com  - 05 Jan) We accurately assessed this on 18 Dec. Rely on us with confidence; consult us.
Our comment: A few months worth of statistics cannot make a trend of things to come however as 2014 begun, the number of tourists to Thailand has gone down. Two major factors seem to be prevalent: the insurgency in the south of the country as well as the recent public unrest in and around Bangkok. These are likely not to deter some travellers nevertheless several other circumstances may influence. Our tweets are often superficial and additional work is required to have a clearer picture of a particular situation.

From 18 December 2013:

6. @InSightCrime We judge that transnational organized crime aka drug cartels, etc will severely impact governance in Central America. Huge degrade by 2020.
Our comment: We also carry out long term assessments but they usually require a different analytical methodology. Since there are no positive indications upon the biggest focal points such as corruption, law enforcement and effective governance...this is likely to result in security degradation from today's levels.

From 02 December 2013:

7. Thailand: Of the few options available to Thai PM, perhaps calling elections is proper course of action. Either way this week is critical for a solution; Thursday is King Bhumibol Adulyadej's birthday. BTW Thai military has a 18 coup track record since 1930s...
Our comment: Within a week of our tweet being posted, Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved parliament on 09 December and called a snap election set for 02 February. This was not a "gut feeling" or a baseless prediction but made sense and followed our intelligence analysis process.

From 16 November 2013:

8. Malaysia update: Tourists in Sabah state are at a higher risk of kidnap for ransom. Consult us prior to travel there.
Our comment: The kidnapping of a Chinese tourist and a resort employee early in April 2014 illustrates the fidelity of insight that we at PAR-SEC Consulting offer for our clients. This tweet was done following a highly publicized kidnapping of a Taiwanese couple in which the husband was killed. Despite of the time, Sabah was always a high risk for abduction since 2000.

From 03 September 2013:

9. Daily intelligence: more civil unrest to be observed in Bahrain. Contact us prior to travel there.
Our comment: Civil unrest in the Kingdom of Bahrain is making headlines periodically since early 2011. Martial law, curfews and declaring a state of emergency were responses to "civil resistance" that has several causes at the root. It likely debuted during the "Arab spring" that was witnessed across northern Africa. During the bouts of protests, many accusations of human rights violations emerged against the Bahraini authorities, to include detention of children and torture. Soon after our tweet, over 745 protests occurred within the small Gulf country. So far in 2014, several IEDs seem to characterize the unrest to date. The exact number of deaths is difficult to estimate since 2011 but usually agreed upon at well over 100. The majority of Bahrainis are Shia Muslims while the ruling circle and government are mostly Sunni Muslims and Shias are demanding more power.The implication of Iran in Bahrain unrest cannot be discounted...

Our outlook:  While not all of our tweets come to realization, one must bear in mind that our tweets constitute small snippets of a bigger picture and we often offer indicators, new information elements that are part of a trend or pattern as well as a predictive element for our followers and clients alike in order to produce insight for awareness purposes. Our intelligence assessments constitute the complete and accurate picture and are available upon request for information from prospective clients.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: Copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.