TRAVEL SECURITY IN UNSAFE & HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS

We will discuss several aspects of travel security to include due diligence and what to do if in a region where hostilities just broke out. Readers are reminded that the following is general guidance and if further or particular information is required you may contact us.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and usually requires research to properly address possible risks and sometimes travellers do not really know where to start. Since it is well known that personal safety is a key factor that influences the decision to travel one must carry out a study of the chosen destination when the associated knowledge is limited. Canada, the US and several other countries all have websites in which they offer the latest updates on travel risks and health situations. It is advisable for travellers to abide to your government travel advice even though at times it may be considered over cautious. Travellers should know that government recommendations are generally based on past events and can be limited in insight. Another source of information is the various travel forums that are available on the internet.
There are cities, regions and countries for where travel is highly discouraged for good reasons due to insurgencies, wars or civil unrest which can result in injuries or deaths for visitors. The city of Caracas, North Korea, Afghanistan or northern Cameroon come to mind as areas to avoid but the decision to travel to dangerous regions is yours only and often will not entitle evacuation from your government. It must be noted that every destination has its own security requirements however there are commonalities in safety tips. For developing countries, never show signs of affluence, openly display money or articles of value such as cell phones, never venture out alone at night and the travel tips list can be endless. It is important that travellers exercise due diligence and leave prepared. Visas and all necessary vaccinations should be at the top of the list as well as for travel and hospitalization insurance. As a rule of thumb the riskier the area visited, the more preparations needed. Natural disasters are often overlooked and a good example is the Atlantic hurricane season which occurs over the Caribbean and other parts of North America during the summer and early fall months. What remains important to remember is that most countries that are popular with tourists only require basic awareness or common sense and this is particularly true if in the confines of a resort most anywhere or while in Playa del Carmen in Mexico where tourist police abound.

Upon arrival, it is necessary to obey local laws and visitors are not immune: for travellers to the Middle East, you can be arrested for being drunk or intoxicated in public and penalties can be severe. Register with your nearest consulate or Embassy. A few details that are often overlooked and warrant a special mention; always keep photocopies of your passport in case of loss for quick replacement and always leave updated contact information and itineraries with a third party back home. A good habit to take daily is to google your destination under the news tab in order to be well appraised of what could be happening that you need to know. If you wish to drive a motor vehicle become familiar with local traffic laws and be mindful that defensive type driving may be the norm as many countries have aggressive drivers. Crime is present everywhere and it is the biggest threat that awaits visitors however 99% are never victimized if certain measures are taken. Be aware that in certain countries or regions where corruption is prevalent and law enforcement is erratic, little is done to recover stolen goods or to resolve actual crimes without bribes. There are several hazards that may be present while abroad. For instance, if visiting Quito (which sits at 2800m or 9400’ above sea level) altitude sickness may develop and could require hospitalization thus ruining your stay. Dengue fever is on the rise in many popular destinations and vaccines are not available at this time. Cultural perceptions can make a world of difference in some countries and know that some aspects are protected by law. Men should always wear long sleeve shirts as well as pants while in Muslim countries and this is in order to adhere to local customs which are based on religion. Biases and cultural variations can be significant and may mean the opposite of what westerners are accustomed to. In some cultures nodding up and down means no. Body language can also be misinterpreted. Examples of biases and discrimination are endless such as in some countries where homosexuality is a crime and behaviour reconsiderations may be judicious. Internet availability can be limited and cell phone reliability can be very questionable in some areas, especially while away from urban centers and other infrastructure such as hotels or roads are not always to western standards.

Hostilities can break out for where you are but what usually leads to an armed conflict were slowly coming and not without previous indications; basically it is near impossible that you will wake up one morning at your vacation or business destination and a war has begun overnight...
Popular support for anti-government causes and general public dissatisfaction with a current government can be the start of a trend that the internal security situation could change, but generally not in the near term. When your government travel advice is updated, caused by a degraded security situation this is when you should be aware that things could go bad and you need to be informed of the evolving internal situation so you can leave if you have to but more importantly while you still can. Regular public demonstrations are usually next with mounting levels of violence. A shift between police to the military to control the crowds most always constitutes a clear sign of security degradation. Various socio-economic conditions worsen and can evolve into the disruption of the economy which can trigger an increase to the crime rate. This is when travellers need to reconsider their stay and must monitor what their government recommend to include departure. There are no guarantees that your government will provide evacuation services for you. The next likely scenario that keeps in the pattern is when a portion of the populace moves away due to the worsening security situation or following armed attacks by opposition groups. Follow your instincts, weigh your options and make a decision based on what are the reasons to stay when it is unsafe to go outside without being caught in violent public demonstrations and the firing of weapons can be heard.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: Copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.  

I

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #18 (18 APRIL-24 APRIL)

We will go back to some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six threat factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 18 April:

1.  Are you soon travelling to Punta Cana? Read our courtesy assessment. 

From 22 April:

2.  Did you know? Bahamas, Jamaica & Belize all have a higher murder rate than Brazil (http://UNODC.org ) Over 8M visitors last year...

3. Costa Rica update: Tourists robbed, shot in San Jose (http://ticotimes.net ). This was avoidable. Consult us prior to travel & stay safer.

From 23 April:

4. U.S. Girl Strangled, Sexually Assaulted in the Bahamas. (http://www.cruiselawnews.comime/us-girl-strangled-sexually-assaulted-in-the-bahamas/index.html)

Our comment: Every year millions of vacationers flock to the warmer climates of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean (those are also referred to as Middle America region).  The peak season for tourists is understandably during the winter months but can also stretch from October until April. Resorts and beaches are among the most popular stops for the journey. The Mexican government has claimed 24 million visitors in 2012 while the Caribbean region received almost 25 million tourists for the same year. If we add that just under 12,5 million people stayed for a holiday in Central America, over 60 million visited that region of the world. Understandably, tourism is a very important component to the economies of those countries which are considered as developing. Tourism is growing globally and this is also true for the Middle America region where the active promotion of their countries' natural beauties by their respective tourism boards are actively advertised in many media of the developed world. Another feature of the region is the presence of higher rates of crime. The scope of this blog post is not fear mongering but rather to inform travellers of an inherent risk. For that reason, most of those countries have resorts that are secured by government security forces and night time explorations of the surrounding areas away from the resorts are not recommended due to obvious reasons. Statistics on murders, kidnappings, assaults, rapes, etc confirm that these countries are not safe. Specific reasons cannot be easily articulated on why the region is among the most dangerous in the world, however socio-economic factors, corruption and spotty law enforcement are all contributing ingredients. Every day thousands of tourists visit these countries and 99% usually remain safe. They abide to rules and advice, use common sense and thousands will keep revisiting yearly unless major safety issues are brought to their attention. Why do some tourists get in trouble while the overwhelming majority never do? For whatever reasons, most incidents are generally avoidable. Government travel advice websites will offer tips that are usually considered adequate but remain mostly generic. News reports and researching your destination will add to your awareness. Dangers are nonetheless present wherever people travel to spend some of their hard earned income to escape colder climates for a week or two. First time travellers such as young adults are susceptible and the ever popular spring breaks offer countless examples of bad outcomes.

Our outlook: Travel to Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean is encouraged and by abiding to certain rules most everybody will have the trip of a lifetime. For travellers who wish to visit "off the path" destinations, for corporate and business travellers or NGOs who need to reach more remote areas, be aware that your government travel advice and warning services are limited and many contributing threat and hazard factors are not commonly enumerated for mitigation. It would be wise to retain the services of a travel risk mitigation company for support. Be mindful that many of those companies will offer expensive packages that your government offers for free and that the same companies omit to supply a predictive element for your safety. We, on the other hand, offer accurate insight and assess what is likely to occur next in order to keep our clients safer.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: Copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.  

KIDNAP & RANSOM INSURANCE

The way we travel, why and where we travel has evolved in the past few decades. Today many more people travel globally for many reasons; often for tourism or for business purposes. The requirements for travel have also changed over the years but significantly since 9/11. Nowadays visas, travel insurance and immunization prior to departure are standard procedures. Travel intelligence advice firms such as us at PAR-SEC Consulting offer innovative services for travellers to higher risk regions. Kidnap and ransom insurance is a new product that is associated with travel to dangerous countries and areas of the world. The threat from kidnap for ransom is escalating from occasional incidents to planned activities from well-organised groups.

What exactly is Kidnap and Ransom insurance? How does it work and for who is this coverage offered? We have contacted an insurance broker who also advises for such policies. Mrs. Sandra Lambert, from Blue Sky Insurance Brokers recently sat down with us to discuss this type of protection and to answer a few questions.

PAR-SEC Consulting: Sandra, what exactly is Kidnap & Ransom (K & R) insurance? 

S: To describe this insurance protection in a few words, K & R coverage is designed for corporations, their employees and families while working abroad in countries that are defined as dangerous from the risk of K & R situations. In addition, K&R insurance policies typically cover the perils of kidnap, extortion, wrongful detention and hijacking. These are indemnity policies.

PAR-SEC Consulting: Thank you. How do those policies usually work?

S: It depends on the particular situation at the time for the policy holder, the length of the kidnapping, where it occurred, the type of kidnapping - it could be a "snatch and grab" for quick ransom and release, etc.  

PAR-SEC Consulting: Can anybody purchase this type of coverage?

S: The insurance companies that offer this service tend to target global employees of large firms involved in sectors such as in the mining industry and individual contractors that support military operations in countries such as Afghanistan. So, usually strictly corporations. 

Tourists can use the services of travel advice firms such as yours, or as recommended from several governments.

PAR-SEC Consulting: That is true. New Zealand, for example has recommended that their citizens "are advised to seek professional security advice before travelling to areas of particular risk". 

So I have been kidnapped while working for an oil company in Nigeria. What happens next?

S: Once you have been reported as missing from your employer or when a ransom as been issued from a group for your release, specialists under contract with the insurance company will conduct an investigation, will intervene to initiate negotiations, do a ransom drop to recover the individual and will evacuate the person after a medical evaluation was carried out. Some investigators, interestingly enough, have a background similar to your CEO; many are ex-military intelligence or even ex-CIA. Following successful repatriation, the policy can even include psychological evaluation and if PTSD is diagnosed, a rehabilitation program is included. 

PAR-SEC Consulting: Interesting. Are the premiums expensive for an employer?

S: Surprisingly no. It also depends on several factors such as the frequency of K & R reported for a specific area or the likely amount to be disbursed. The higher the risk, the more expensive the premiums.

 PAR-SEC Consulting: Are there exclusions?

S: There are. For example, if an employee was kidnapped, say, following he or she commits a crime such as drug running or any other act that is recognized as illegal in Canada, the policy will exclude coverage.

 PAR-SEC Consulting: How can one get the coverage?

S: The insurance company will assess the requirements and qualify the person or not based on several factors.

 PAR-SEC Consulting: Thank you for your time with us today, Sandra!

S: My pleasure.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail:parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.  

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #17 (11 APRIL-18 APRIL)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 11 April:

1.  Any travel intelligence & risk management firms out there that actually make assessments?

From April 12:

2. Expect our security assessment for FIFA Brazil World Cup host Cuiaba later tomorrow. We provide the best insight & advice for travellers.

Our comment: Since it is important to always provide information that is up to date and to make a difference - to offer a predictive element - for our clients we deem necessary to also offer up to date information for our followers. For that reason this week we will exercise due diligence and provide an up to date Vulnerability Assessment for travellers to Punta Cana which was originally offered on a courtesy basis on 18 July 2013.

Note: Readers should also note that the following constitutes a condensed and generic variety of what we research, analyze, assess and deliver to the end user. If you have to travel to Punta Cana or other higher risk areas, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

INFORMATION VALID AS OF: 17 April 2014

INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This vulnerability assessment provides actionable intelligence for travel to Punta Cana, Dominican republic. Two findings are identified up front: a high level of crime as well as the presence of health hazards. Upon arrival register at your nearest consulate and exchange contact information. Always leave an updated itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information. Get proper vaccinations prior to travel. Obey direction from local authorities. Safe keep your passport and make copies for re-issue in case of loss. Enjoy your worry free vacation!

ASSESSMENT OF THREAT & RISK FACTORS

1.  Government/security forces: Reports of criminals impersonating police officers have been reported, particularly after departure from the Las Americas International Airport near Santo Domingo. Similarly it is possible that this may also occur in the Punta Cana area. For example, demands for immediate payment of traffic fines were witnessed. Actual cases of security forces or real police officers posing a threat to tourists or demanding bribes remain isolated however seem to be on the rise. Country wide, police forces have the reputation to be corrupt and some are involved in drug trafficking or other criminal activities. The tourist police (POLITUR) is present in the Punta Cana area and there are mixed results about their level of effectiveness as a service to tourists and misconduct has been witnessed. Tourists are subject to local laws. Emergency phone numbers are either 112 or 911. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated from government or security forces are assessed as LOW and likely to be collateral in nature. (See annexes A and B for full definitions).
Our recommendations: Use common sense while in and around Punta Cana. Abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted. Do not buy or consume illegal substances while there.

2.  Kidnappings: Instances of kidnappings for the Punta Cana area remain rare compared to the capital city area. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated with kidnappings are assessed as LOW.
Our recommendations: Do not show obvious signs of affluence when outside your resort or in town; avoid wearing watches, jewellery or finer type clothing. Remain in groups (i.e. book a group excursion) when practical and maintain a low profile while enjoying your stay. 

3.  Crime: While violent crimes including assault have affected a few tourists, petty crime is common in the area. Thefts have been reported in resorts. Exercise caution and be aware of your surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of run” crimes are reported and do not leave your personal belongings unattended on the beach. Theft from hotel rooms and hotel room safes has occurred. Some tourists have been victimized in taxis. Fraud and "drive by robberies" tend to be on the rise. Gangs and organized crime groups, to include transnational drug traffickers are present in the region. Although there has been an increase in violent crimes and homicides, tourism resorts are unlikely to be targeted. Reporting crimes to the local authorities may or may not be satisfactorily resolved. The vulnerability factors associated from crime in the Punta Cana area are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Be aware of your surroundings and do not show obvious signs of affluence: dress low profile, do not openly handle money or other valuables while in town - even in the daytime hours. Crime is generally not violent if the victim cooperates; carrying a decoy wallet with expired credit cards and some low denomination US dollars in case of armed robbery should alleviate many bad outcomes.

4. Biases: As almost in anywhere else in the world, there are reports of discrimination based on sexual orientation, religion, race, etc. "Flirting" that border on sexual harassment against women are reported more regularly. The vulnerability factors associated from biases towards tourists while outside of the resort are assessed as LOW, if our recommendation is followed.  However within the resort confines there are NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

Our recommendations: Some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary. Women should never venture alone outside the resorts.

5. Terrorism/Insurgencies: No terrorist groups are known to operate in the DR however it is likely a transit point for extremists. Additionally, there are no insurgent groups present that have been identified. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year. The vulnerability factors associated from terrorism or insurgencies to tourists are assessed as NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

6.  Civil unrest/Violent protests: In the past year there have been popular protests against the government elsewhere in the country and are highly likely to reoccur during 2014.  There have been no reports of serious civil unrest in the past year for the Punta Cana area. Tourists are unlikely to be directly affected but are likely at risk if in the vicinity of large and sudden crowd gatherings. The vulnerability factors associated from civil unrest and violent protests to tourists are nonetheless assessed as LOW.
Our recommendations: While in town, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings and ask your resort staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS

7.  Health: Dengue fever is now endemic to the DR. Approximately 32,000 suspected cases of cholera and close to 500 related deaths have been reported since late 2010. There are occasional reports of cases of malaria as well as the chikungunya virus. Water-borne, food-borne, parasitic and other infectious diseases (including hepatitis, HIV, filariasis and leptospirosis) are prevalent. Medical care in Punta Cana should be adequate for most problems. The hazard factors associated from health and diseases to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Ensure you do consult with your local vaccination clinic for all required immunization prior to travel. Common sense practices such as drinking from sealed bottles and to avoid consuming ice are prescribed. Purchase medical insurance prior to departure and inquire about the policy limitations.

8.  Climate: Tropical storms, tropical depressions and other natural disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and droughts) do occur in the DR. Hurricane season is between the months of May and November. There are two rainy seasons, the heaviest being from May to August. Visitors to the island need to be aware that many buildings may not be in compliance with western building codes. Some travellers may be affected by the high level of humidity during the summer months. Hazards such as earthquakes are unpredictable however the latest of note occurred in March 2014 at a 4,3 magnitude. The hazard factors associated from climatic issues to tourists to Punta Cana are assessed as LOW. Those factors may rise to MEDIUM during the summer months.
Our recommendations: Natural disasters are often impossible to predict so it is advisable for visitors to monitor the weather forecasts especially during the summer months.

9.  Topography: The eastern part of Hispaniola Island, which the DR shares with Haiti, is mostly composed of rugged highlands and mountains with fertile valleys. There are no volcanoes in the DR. Landslides and floods do occasionally occur. Punta Cana sits at 12 meters above sea level. There is NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from topography while in the Punta Cana area.

10.  Infrastructure:   Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Driving after dark is not recommended due to poor lighting. Defensive driving skills is a necessity for those planning to drive in the Punta Cana area. Telecommunications and internet services are usually reliable in resorts. There is NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from infrastructure while in the Punta Cana area.

VULNERABILITY FACTORS	ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES	LOW
KIDNAPPINGS	LOW
CRIMES & GANGS	MEDIUM
BIASES	LOW
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY	NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS	LOW

HAZARDS	ASSESMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES	MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS	LOW TO MEDIUM
TOPOGRAPHY	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD

Our assessment: Crime and health hazards will constitute the most significant risks for tourists to Punta Cana.

Recommended courses of action: Plan to fly in and out of Punta Cana. Overland travel around the country is not advisable. Always be part of a group when in town. Women should not be alone outside of the resort. After sun dawn, it is preferred to stay within the confines of your resort especially if restaurants and other leisurely activities are available on site. Do not divulge the name of your resort or room number to strangers. Be aware of the surroundings. Obey local laws. Do not touch unknown animals and insects. During the summer months view weather forecasts. Do not forget travel insurance to cover hospitalizations and airline cancellations, etc. Get prescribed immunization associated for travel there, avoid being a target for crime by heading our recommendations and enjoy your stay in Punta Cana. 

Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

Vulnerability Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No imminent threats have been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threats are mitigated if certain precautions are taken. Risk is assessed at less than 25%.

MEDIUM:  Incentive to carry out hostile intent. This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Review our recommendations. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: High likelihood to commit a hostile act. The associated undertaking is to be avoided. This is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard has been identified.

 LOW: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 

MEDIUM: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.

HIGH: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.

Annex B – Terminology

Our definitions & associated key words

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: Actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.

Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.

Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.

Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.

Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.

References:

Full disclosure and attribution are available upon request. One confidential source will be intentionally omitted.

We stand fully behind our accurate assessments.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.  

CUIABA VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT DURING 2014 FIFA WORLD CUP

Note: This vulnerability assessment is disseminated as a product demonstrator that best illustrates our particular services to travellers to higher risk countries. We strive to provide our clients with fidelity of insight that is tailored to their specific destination and requirements. Reports are never reproduced for third party use as circumstances are continually evolving, even for identical endpoints. Two types of reports are usually produced: vulnerability assessments aimed for tourists and distinct assessments for corporations and business travellers. This courtesy report is intended for tourists to the city of Cuiaba, Brazil for the duration of the 2014 FIFA World Cup from 12 June until 13 July. Readers should also note that the following constitutes a condensed and generic variety of what we research, analyze, assess and deliver to the end user. If you have to travel to Cuiaba or other higher risk areas, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

*** Updated 21 May: see para 7 "Health"***

INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This vulnerability assessment provides actionable intelligence for travel to Cuiaba, during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Four findings are identified up front: gang related violence, civil unrest, a high crime rate as well as the presence of health hazards. Upon arrival register at your nearest consulate and exchange contact information. Always leave an updated itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information. Get proper vaccinations prior to travel. Obey direction from local authorities. Safe keep your passport and make copies for re-issue in case of loss. Four matches are scheduled at the Arena Pantanal. Enjoy your worry free vacation!

ASSESSMENT OF THREAT & RISK FACTORS

1.  Government/security forces: The law enforcement agencies that operate in Cuiaba have the reputation for being corrupt and have been accused of human rights violations and some members are known to participate in illegitimate activities such as drug trafficking. Illegal arrests and demands for bribes have been reported. Armed clashes have occurred in the past between police and gangs. To contact the local police dial 190 (military police) or 194. Always inform your nearest consulate if experiencing legal problems. Police capability and readiness remain a concern. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated from government or security forces are assessed as LOW and likely to be collateral in nature. (See annexes A and B for full definitions).

Our recommendations: Use common sense while in Cuiaba. Abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted.

2.  Kidnappings: Kidnappings targeting tourists is a concern during the scheduled games and are likely to be opportunistic. Express kidnappings (a method of abduction that is used to obtain small amounts of money by driving the victim from one ATM to another to withdraw the victim’s account limit) have been reported. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated with kidnappings are assessed as LOW if our recommendations are followed.

Our recommendations: Do not show obvious signs of affluence when in public; avoid wearing watches, jewellery or finer type clothing. Remain in groups when practical and maintain a low profile while enjoying your stay.

3.  Crime: Petty crimes and thefts are common occurrences for Cuiaba.  Thefts from hotel rooms happen. Violent crimes against tourists and locals alike such as homicides, armed assaults, robberies, sexual assaults, and home invasions are regularly reported. There was a 50% increase in murders in the first three months of 2014, mostly driven by drug trafficking. Gangs and organized crime groups are present in the area. Be aware that it is likely that little will be done by law enforcement to recover stolen goods or to resolve actual crimes. The vulnerability factors associated from crimes are assessed as MEDIUM at this time but could be elevated with little or no warning. 
Our recommendations: Be situationally aware of your surroundings. Do not openly handle money. Never openly display your cell phone or other valuables as “snatch and run” crimes can happen. Do not leave any of your personal belongings unattended. Avoid showing signs of affluence. You are advised against public transportation due to pick pockets and being alone especially after sun dawn. Do not offer opportunities to become a victim of crime; consult our booklet for appropriate courses of action.

4.  Biases: There have been reports of discrimination and abuses based on sexual orientation, gender and race. We remind travellers that local culture, religious and social perceptions, opinions and sensitivities can differ from what is accustomed. Brazil has legislated anti-discrimination laws and are fully part of the country's constitution. Nonetheless, assaults and even murders targeting the LGBT community have been reported. The vulnerability factors associated from biases towards tourists are assessed as LOW, if our recommendation is followed.
Our recommendation: Some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary.

 

5. Terrorism/Insurgencies: There are no known terrorist groups operating in Brazil. Insurgent groups have been identified however none are believed to operate in the Cuiaba area. These groups have political motives and would highly unlikely target westerners. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year. The vulnerability factors associated from terrorism or insurgencies to tourists are assessed as NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

6.  Civil unrest/violent protests: The Brazilian franchise of the Black Bloc is the most likely antagonizing group that is likely to cause and stir civil unrest with varying degrees of violence during the FIFA world Cup. Gatherings can be hasty and it is possible to get caught in a crowd without warning. We judge with confidence that demonstrations will occur periodically prior to and during the scheduled games for media attention to various causes. Fights may erupt between fans during games in and out of arena site. The vulnerability factors associated from civil unrest and violent protests to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM, based on indicators available to us at this time.
Our recommendations: Even though it may be difficult, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings as acts of violence can suddenly arise. Be proactive and ask your hotel staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS

7.  Health: Many prevalent diseases are present in Brazil and in the Cuiaba area. Air pollution is also a concern. Local food and water supplies may be contaminated. Poor sanitation exist and is not at western standards. Earlier this month there was a person who reportedly contracted H1N1. Reportedly, Brazil has 1,4 millions cases of Dengue since 2013. Some of those cases were in four of the FIFA host cities while Sao Paolo had over 1000 cases since early May 2014 alone. The hazard factors associated from health and diseases to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Ensure you do consult with your local vaccination clinic for all required immunization prior to travel. If ill go to private clinics while in Cuiaba. To date there are no known vaccines  for Dengue fever. Common sense practices such as drinking from sealed bottles and to avoid consuming ice are prescribed. Purchase medical insurance prior to departure and inquire about the policy limitations.

8.  Risks from climate: Cuiaba does present only one major hazard related to its climate as it is a tropical and highly humid destination which can be challenging for travellers from more temperate climates and the elderly. The months of June and July are usually the coolest (if one considers +20 Celsius as such, plus being in the southern hemisphere). Most of the rainy season is over by the month of June. The hazard factors associated from climactic issues to FIFA fans while in Cuiaba are assessed as LOW.

Our recommendations: The lowest temperatures recorded were at +6 during some nights. Bring a sweater!

9.  Topography: The Cuiaba area sits at less than 200 meters above sea level. Flooding have occured for the Cuiaba river basin, however not for the months of June and July.  Earthquakes have not been recorded recently. There are NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from topographical issues to tourists.

10. Infrastructure: Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected.Hospitals are other medical services are not to western standards. Use taxis of reliability for commuting around the city. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Do choose to fly in/out of Cuiaba. Telecommunications and internet services are modest but usually reliable. Cell phone outages are possible in stadiums for Sao Paolo and Curitiba and 4G networks could very well be affected the most due to lack of antennas to accommodate concentration of fans. As much as 80% of Brazil's hydro power is generated by dams and most areas of the country are presently experiencing a drought. The low reservoir levels have raised the possibility of electricity rationing during the World Cup and while rain is forecasted regularly for the region surrounding Cuiaba for the next two weeks, we still judge that interruptions cannot be discounted. There are NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD factors associated from infrastructure in Cuiaba.

THREAT FACTORS	ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES	LOW
KIDNAPPINGS	LOW
CRIMES & GANGS	MEDIUM
BIASES	LOW
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY	NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS	MEDIUM

HAZARDS	ASSESSMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES	MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS	LOW
TOPOGRAPHY	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD

Our assessment: Crime, civil unrest and health hazards during the FIFA World Cup in Cuiaba are the three main risk factors to tourists. Our overall assessment remains unchanged.

Recommended courses of action: Plan to fly in and out of Cuiaba. Overland travel is not recommended. Be part of a group to/from Arena Pantanal. Hire a taxi from the recommendations of travel forums and blogs or from trusted hotel staff. After sun dawn, it is preferred to stay within the confines of your hotel, which should be fully accredited for safety purposes. Do not forget travel insurance to cover hospitalizations and airline cancellations, etc. Get prescribed immunization associated for travel to Brazil, avoid being a target for crime by heading our recommendations and enjoy your stay in Cuiaba.

Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

 Threat Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No imminent threats have been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threats are mitigated if certain precautions are taken. Risk is assessed at less than 25%.
MEDIUM:  Incentive to carry out hostile intent. This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Review our recommendations. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: High likelihood to commit a hostile act. The associated undertaking is to be avoided. This is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard has been identified.

LOW: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 
MEDIUM: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.
HIGH: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.

Annex B – Terminology

 Our definitions & associated key words

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: Actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.
Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.
Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.
Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.
Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.

References:

Full disclosure and attribution are available upon request.Three confidential sources will be intentionally omitted.

We stand fully behind our accurate assessments.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.