WEEKLY ROUND-UP #8 (24 JAN-30 JAN)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. If you have to travel to higher risk countries, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services.


From 27 January:


1.  Brazil update: After we determined that crime & muggings are the likely threat to travelers during FIFA 2014, we have also assessed that violent protests will emerge in most large urban centers, starting now. There is a collateral risk of serious injuries if among crowds.


From 29 January:


2.  Brazil update: Sao Paolo: reports that 24 public buses set on fire in 2014. Avoid public transportation there and other large urban areas.


Our comment: The two above tweets are indicative of the internal security situation there. While crime was always present in Brazil, we have noted specifically that violent demonstrations as well as robberies against individuals have become predominant in urban areas. The cause for some protests are associated with the coming FIFA World Cup starting on 12 June and the alleged high costs associated. The Brazilian authorities have disclosed that the security forces in place will be well prepared to neutralize out of control protests. Disgruntled demonstrators will denounce the lack of decent public services and will also be enticed by the Black Bloc, an anarchist group that usually can turn seemingly peaceful protests violent by smashing the windows of storefronts, banks and torching cars.
Our outlook: Our outlook remains unchanged; it is highly likely that protests with varying degrees of violence will occur on a regular basis and should augment in frequency towards the month of June. A surge of demonstrations during the World Cup seems inevitable for the 12 scheduled locations given the media presence and scrutiny. We judge with confidence that Brazilian security forces will use deadly force if necessary which may trigger an escalation from the crowds.Tourists and other visitors to the many Cup cities are likely to be injured or to be detained if caught in protestor crowds despite of themselves.


Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.


We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com



Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #7 (16 JAN-23 JAN)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. If you are required to travel to high risk countries or regions, contact us for a gratuitous preliminary consultation. 


From 19 January:


1.  St Maarten update: Evidence that Chikungunya virus in Curacao
(http://curacaochronicle.com ). Virus not lethal; contact us for travel advice.


From 22 January:


2.  PRC update: Over 23 new cases of H7N9 in past 15 days: "might spread" (cntv.cn). Travelling there? Talk to us first for hazard mitigation.


Our comment: Health hazards such as bacteria, viruses and vector borne diseases often constitute a serious danger for the traveler. Most often all precautions such as inoculations, vaccines and other preventative measures will successfully mitigate risks of becoming seriously ill or worse. That is the easy part. What we, at PAR-SEC Consulting do, is to research the hazards that are less known, what diseases are less reported and the bugs that are emerging and how they can adversely affect the traveler and our clients. We then assess the possibilities for all outcomes and the impacts that must be considered prior to travel and to prevent exposure. We are not medical experts or microbiologists however we have access to expert opinions that contribute to our findings and analysis and therefore we can confidently recommend a specific course of action in order to stay safe abroad and to return home unharmed.


We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

GENERIC GUIDELINES FOR TRAVEL TO HIGH RISK COUNTRIES

The following blog pertains to reminders for travel to high risk countries or regions. These recommendations are superficial and situations will typically vary and differ from one location to another.


Overseas business travel has become routine due, in part, to modern technologies. Unfortunately these mundane tasks for many are almost never low risk, especially from a vulnerability perspective. The following is a list of due diligence and are not comprehensive or complete. Our objective is to highlight to our clients and followers certain precautions to be adhered to in order to stay safe abroad and to return home unharmed.


1.  Prior to travel to your destination, become familiar with local laws and customs. This is imperative.
2.  Being a citizen from a western country usually offers little to no immunity.
3.  Signs of affluence are highly likely to attract crime opportunities that could endanger the traveler's life.
4. Their culture is different from your culture. Be aware.
5. Business travelers are likely to be targeted at home, prior to travel. This is especially true when requesting a visa.
6.  Remember that extremists often perceive westerners - all races and religion - as the enemy.
7.  At your point of entry you may be questioned. Repeatedly for no apparent reason. Be aware that certain goods such as alcohol, bibles or pornographic material can land the traveler in serious trouble.
8.  Avoid advertising who you are, your position or the organization you represent. This includes no logos on your clothes, bags, etc. Google your name prior to travel; you'd be surprised. Never accept electronic goods such as USB as they may be bugged with surveillance software, etc.
9.  Be mindful that you may be the target of intelligence collection, especially if you represent a high tech firm with industrial secrets, etc. In addition, you are likely to come under surveillance or even to become a victim of sexual entrapment, an old trick. The traveler may also be subjected to multiple searches throughout his or her stay from security officials, elicitation is therefore common. The traveler may also observe that despite being discreet and by taking many precautions that easy, sudden friendship develop! You think that no one is interested in you? Think again.
10. Never leave anyone (policeman, customs agent, etc) remove your laptop for inspection away from your sight.
11.  Assume you are being monitored for your e-mails and phone calls. Do not be tempted for free WIFI, unless you feel safe that your conversation can be heard by all. As well, always leave the television or radio on in your hotel room. Leave a "Do Not Disturb" card on your door. Never state your name or title when answering the phone. A simple "hello" will do.
12.  Change your itineraries and timings when necessary and avoid being alone if practical.


We recommend that all travelers to high risk countries or regions become situationally aware. We offer accurate and specific vulnerability assessments for the business traveller, NGOs, organizations and their staff as well as for the adventurers and backpackers. Contact us today: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #6 (02 JAN-09 JAN)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. If you are required to travel to high risk countries or regions, contact us for a gratuitous preliminary consultation. 

From 06 January:

1.  Thailand update: Mass demonstrations set in NUMEROUS areas of Bangkok on 13 January. Gov't has 7 days to prepare. Avoid city core & crowds.

2. "Thai tourism under threat" (http://online.wsj.com  - 05 Jan) We accurately assessed this on 18 Dec. Rely on us with confidence; consult us.

From 08 January:

3. Thailand update: Opposition protests planned for 13 Jan in tourist areas of Bangkok likely to hinder upcoming elections on 02 Feb or to force PM to resign or change elections dates? Military coup cannot be discounted if situation degrades after 13 Jan.

Our comment: As reported previously by us, the security situation in Thailand is at risk of degradation based on reliable indicators. While the Islamist insurgency in the south of the country is one aspect of serious and ongoing threats to the country's integrity, the recent anti-government protests have been situated mainly in the capital and present less risks. Nonetheless we judge that some triggers are likely to be in place this Monday for deadly violence. Independantly, daily protests are very possible in the interim. Tourists who frequent Bangkok's upscale shopping district, in the area of Pathumwan and Ratchaprasong intersections are likely to get caught in hasty assemblies of protesters and we therefore recommend to avoid that area. 

Such unrest as is being experienced for Thailand has been reflected in a decrease of travelers and therefore less governmental revenues, which negatively impact the economy and by extension, its stability. We are confident that the PM Yingluck Shinawatra will do everything in her power to prevent these protests on 13 January in order to reestablish normalcy by offering vague promises of resignation, at least as a delaying tactic. However, the opposition's end state being her unconditional and immediate resignation, this option remains unlikely to succeed. Further frictions on Monday and the following days are likely to cause the military to intervene and to effectively carry out a coup. This scenario is nonetheless premature at this time but we did suggest this as a real eventuality on 02 December. As of today (09 January) many reports demonstrate that such a course of action may be unavoidable.

We specialize in assessing outcomes for high risk countries, both in the near term (30 to 90 days) as well as long term outlooks (two to five years). Thailand is a recurring topic in the news recently so it is relatively obvious to demonstrate our services in that respect.

We do not object to travel to Bangkok or Thailand. We recommend that tourists, business travelers, NGOs and backpackers abide to specific guidance in order to fully enjoy their trip and to return home unharmed.

We do not openly recommend travel to any area in the world where insurgencies are ongoing or are imminent. Every region of high risk that requires travel necessitates unbiased and methodical research, analysis of past trends, emerging risks and a thorough assessment of what is likely to occur next. This is what we do best and accurately.

We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

WEEKLY ROUND-UP (20 DEC-02 JAN)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past two weeks and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.

From 28 December:

1. Cambodia update: Protests by political opposition & garment workers likely to lead to violent crackdown. Demonstrations have risen in recent weeks. We judge security forces to be used in "avoiding coup d'etat" by new gov't. High violence likely for Phnom Penh freedom park.

From 29 December:

2. We judge that in the next two weeks protests will trigger violent crackdown, triggering critical step for gov't future.

Comment: As of 02 January, protests continue as reported by reliable open sources. We will not sum up the origin of the protests or expand on the political ramifications but will focus on what is the likely impact to travelers there and also our assessment for the near future (30 days). Our use of the words "avoiding coup d'etat" was a quote from the government. Since garments constitute a big share of the country's income, it is viewed as

vital to the Prime Minister Sun Hen. A consequence of this fact is the violence used by security forces against the protesters which also include oppositions bodies such as the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). The Cambodian PM has been the head of government since 14 january 1985, nearly 30 years. As we get closer to 14 January, we believe that the likelihood of mounting violence is high as the overall situation is far from being resolved, as a recent offer of wage hikes were turned down. What we are particularly interested in is how the current civil unrest will affect travelers and how we can mitigate for safety. As protests can be pre announced or not we assess that travelers avoid certain areas of the city where such demonstrations occur, namely the freedom park area, sectors with a high concentration of garment factories and to avoid crowds. Collateral threat is high for foreigners when caught in those protests from Cambodian security forces.

From 29 December:

3. This morning, MSM making too many links & assumptions between Volgograd bombing and Sochi. There are 700kms between the two cities...

4. FSB et al will secure Sochi area as much as capable; out of area events considered unrelated.

From 30 December:

5. A second Volgograd bombing today. Speculation, baseless theories or "guesstimates" are unimportant. If indeed Sochi is the target of the perpetrators - and there is no evidence besides timing - it would be indicative that they cannot reach Sochi. More indicators are required.

6. It is extremely difficult to predict "lone wolf" type events. Anywhere. Russia did have & will continue to suffer from terror.

7. Sochi fact: Last reported "terror" event in that city was in April 2012.

8. We judge with little/moderate confidence that Volgograd was opportunistic for attack based on a few facts we all know.

9. Bottom line up front (BLUF) Sochi highly likely safe for games.
Comment: The XXII Olympic Winter Games, along with the XI Paralympic Games will be hosted by Russia in the Black sea coastal city of Sochi. These two events next month are of great significance to the Putin government. Sochi is situated west of the restive areas of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya (among others) which harbour many Islamic extremist groups and separatists. In the past, these groups have called on attacks on Sochi in order to embarrass the Russian government. There are fears that the sites of the upcoming Olympics will witness terror events, for the world to see. Regardless of who perpetrated the recent acts of terrorism in Volgograd, a large city 700 kms north of Sochi, these events are probably not linked to Sochi, but if they were, the attacks location would be attributable to the fact that Sochi is tightly guarded. We judge that any significant and successful attack during the games - especially targeting foreign athletes - would be political suicide for Vladimir Putin and his entourage. We are confident that the FSB and other security agencies have enacted well prepared, robust and appropriate measures to ensure secure events for all. We recommend that the Sochi international airport becomes the main hub for all participants and spectators for the games. We assess that the games are highly likely to be violence free, however some minor disturbances cannot be discounted.


We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.