Russia has a very limited experience in successfully dealing with Islamist extremists. It has its own homegrown terror networks that are from the Caucasus, incidentally not far from Sochi.Dokka Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate (IK) Islamist insurgency in Russia's North Caucasus called for attacks on Sochi Olympics last month.
Feel free to elaborate on certain factors that could permit to assess on the eventuality of a successful terror attack. Not a plot. You will have to be factual however a few paragraph in the point form will suffice to drive the point!!!
For instance we need to research the past of the IK, its leaders, its claimed past attacks, any trend of success and credibility, etc. Then we need to juxtapose the Russian FSB and judge how it dealt with the IK. Capabilities are also important factors to consider
As a reminder this is NOT an exercise in plotting any horrible scenario, this is not about hatred of Muslims nor Russians nor an endorsement of terrorism but merely an illustration of how intelligence analysts think, research, perceive and their unbiased thought process. Many problems do surface during the analytical process; the need for extraordinary evaluation and to accurately estimate probabilities can mitigate undigested information.
Good luck!
Many elements must be covered.
ReplyDeleteFirst you need to gather all the reliable information from different sources and filter for relevancy.
This was already done on our side. What have we learnt so far?
While there were 351(last 30 months)reported insurgent attacks, bombings and/of attempts throughout the Caucasus regions from Chechens and other Muslim insurgents only ONE (in April 2012) occured in Sochi. According to Russian authorities at the time, "they foiled a planned terror attack in Sochi".
We need then to ask ourselves more questions such why only one attack? What made Sochi so special that terrorists could not have made more attacks there? Was there adequate security? Were there any significant indications that attacks could not work?
The next step would be to establish - for example if terrorists have the intention and capability to carry out an attack on Sochi.