We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. If you are required to travel to high risk countries or regions, contact us for a gratuitous preliminary consultation.
From 06 January:
1. Thailand update: Mass demonstrations set in NUMEROUS areas of Bangkok on 13 January. Gov't has 7 days to prepare. Avoid city core & crowds.
2. "Thai tourism under threat" (http://online.wsj.com - 05 Jan) We accurately assessed this on 18 Dec. Rely on us with confidence; consult us.
From 08 January:
3. Thailand update: Opposition protests planned for 13 Jan in tourist areas of Bangkok likely to hinder upcoming elections on 02 Feb or to force PM to resign or change elections dates? Military coup cannot be discounted if situation degrades after 13 Jan.
Our comment: As reported previously by us, the security situation in Thailand is at risk of degradation based on reliable indicators. While the Islamist insurgency in the south of the country is one aspect of serious and ongoing threats to the country's integrity, the recent anti-government protests have been situated mainly in the capital and present less risks. Nonetheless we judge that some triggers are likely to be in place this Monday for deadly violence. Independantly, daily protests are very possible in the interim. Tourists who frequent Bangkok's upscale shopping district, in the area of Pathumwan and Ratchaprasong intersections are likely to get caught in hasty assemblies of protesters and we therefore recommend to avoid that area.
Such unrest as is being experienced for Thailand has been reflected in a decrease of travelers and therefore less governmental revenues, which negatively impact the economy and by extension, its stability. We are confident that the PM Yingluck Shinawatra will do everything in her power to prevent these protests on 13 January in order to reestablish normalcy by offering vague promises of resignation, at least as a delaying tactic. However, the opposition's end state being her unconditional and immediate resignation, this option remains unlikely to succeed. Further frictions on Monday and the following days are likely to cause the military to intervene and to effectively carry out a coup. This scenario is nonetheless premature at this time but we did suggest this as a real eventuality on 02 December. As of today (09 January) many reports demonstrate that such a course of action may be unavoidable.
We specialize in assessing outcomes for high risk countries, both in the near term (30 to 90 days) as well as long term outlooks (two to five years). Thailand is a recurring topic in the news recently so it is relatively obvious to demonstrate our services in that respect.
We do not object to travel to Bangkok or Thailand. We recommend that tourists, business travelers, NGOs and backpackers abide to specific guidance in order to fully enjoy their trip and to return home unharmed.
We do not openly recommend travel to any area in the world where insurgencies are ongoing or are imminent. Every region of high risk that requires travel necessitates unbiased and methodical research, analysis of past trends, emerging risks and a thorough assessment of what is likely to occur next. This is what we do best and accurately.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
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