WEEKLY ROUND-UP (29 NOV-05 DEC)

This is our second weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.

From 29 November:

1.  Thailand update: Protesters left Army HQ. No serious acts of violence reported now. Most reports from Bangkok. Tourists areas unaffected at this time. Reminder: some protests can be hasty, unannounced. Avoid crowds, head local authorities instructions.

From 02 December:

2. Thailand: Of the few options available to Thai PM, perhaps calling elections is proper course of action. Either way this week is critical for a solution; Thursday is King Bhumibol Adulyadej's birthday. BTW Thai military has a 18 coup track record since 1930s...

Comment: Protests have toned down just prior to the revered and respected King's birthday on Thursday. Furthermore the military has displayed signs of restraint which are indicative of the will to de-escalate the conflict. Significant pointers that would hint to widespread violence were lacking. Although escalating violence cannot be discounted it presently remains unlikely.

From 03 December:

3. Algeria: Kidnapping warning; in the southern area (Algerian Sahara) AQIM is offering rewards to various persons who are in contact with foreigners or tourists to turn them over. Borders are porous between countries in the Sahel area, this threat is not limited to Algeria.

Comment: Algeria and other northern African regions such as the Maghreb and the Sahel zone present a higher risk to travellers and NGOs for kidnappings. The Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) probably employs this tactic in order to finance its operations, among other things. AQIM and its affiliate groups and brokers have adjusted their tactics and procedures to the evolving threat they face and have proceeded to successfully refine their operations. Therefore not only can close protection services prove ineffective but a proper strategy for NGOs is of vital importance in the first place.

From 04 December:

4.  Peru update: Extortion targeting NGOs & corporations in Trujillo area - and northern Peru have been reported. We judge that it could be attributable to lax law enforcement. The security situation there likely to degrade, based on expanding criminal schemes. Consult us.

Comment: This is typical warning intelligence. We monitor for additional indicators and reports, to include sources on the ground for accurate assessments. Ongoing.

We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our
e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.