We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. If you have to travel to higher risk countries, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services.
From February 11:
1. Sochi update: Day 4 of Winter Olympics We have no indications that could suggest terrorism to affect Games sites ATT. Our assessment remains unchanged: Sochi Games sites highly likely to remain terror free for Games duration (including the Paralympics). Attack a possibility out of area.
From February 12:
2. Hunafa.com: North Caucasus Jihadists implore Muslims to pray for "earthquake in Sochi" & kill infidels. Really. Not joking.
Our comment: The MSM has repeatedly highlighted and speculated about the possibility for acts of terrorism to occur during the XXII Olympic Winter Games, hosted by Russia in Sochi. By now, most of us are aware of the Games there and its relative proximity to the north Caucasus, an area east of Sochi, where an important Islamist insurgency is based.
A simple google search of two key words: "Sochi" and "terrorism" returned close to 67 million results! Many news outlets have reported or rebroadcasted the fact that there are "high probabilities" for terrorism to happen in Sochi. Other headlines have included "terrorism is still a very high threat for Sochi", to "terrorists will hit Sochi" to even "UK officials warn that terror attacks very likely". Whatever the headline - sensationalistic or not - we have to agree on a few facts in order to debunk the MSM's lack of credibility on that very subject.
First, a terror event has yet to be reported as day 6 is now over.
Second, Islamists such as Dagestani or Chechen extremists have the intent to attack Sochi and this is a well documented fact.
Third, Russian authorities did report that they have made arrests of "terrorists" and "extremists" that were linked to Sochi.
Do we know if those groups have a capability to actually carry out an attack against the Games sites, against athletes or spectators? Not really. If they had the capability to reach and execute an act of terror, they would have done so by now. At least, clues or indications of this capability would exist or... they do not possess the ability to harm the public in Sochi. At all. We at PAR-SEC Consulting assess that north Caucasus based Islamists do not possess the capability to enter the safe zone and to successfully carry out a deadly, spectacular attack. This is based on the analysis that we do, indicators available to us and the overall facts collated.
Our outlook: Unchanged since December: "We assess that the games are highly likely to be violence free, however some minor disturbances cannot be discounted."
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
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