WEEKLY ROUND-UP (29 NOV-05 DEC)

This is our second weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers.

From 29 November:

1.  Thailand update: Protesters left Army HQ. No serious acts of violence reported now. Most reports from Bangkok. Tourists areas unaffected at this time. Reminder: some protests can be hasty, unannounced. Avoid crowds, head local authorities instructions.

From 02 December:

2. Thailand: Of the few options available to Thai PM, perhaps calling elections is proper course of action. Either way this week is critical for a solution; Thursday is King Bhumibol Adulyadej's birthday. BTW Thai military has a 18 coup track record since 1930s...

Comment: Protests have toned down just prior to the revered and respected King's birthday on Thursday. Furthermore the military has displayed signs of restraint which are indicative of the will to de-escalate the conflict. Significant pointers that would hint to widespread violence were lacking. Although escalating violence cannot be discounted it presently remains unlikely.

From 03 December:

3. Algeria: Kidnapping warning; in the southern area (Algerian Sahara) AQIM is offering rewards to various persons who are in contact with foreigners or tourists to turn them over. Borders are porous between countries in the Sahel area, this threat is not limited to Algeria.

Comment: Algeria and other northern African regions such as the Maghreb and the Sahel zone present a higher risk to travellers and NGOs for kidnappings. The Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) probably employs this tactic in order to finance its operations, among other things. AQIM and its affiliate groups and brokers have adjusted their tactics and procedures to the evolving threat they face and have proceeded to successfully refine their operations. Therefore not only can close protection services prove ineffective but a proper strategy for NGOs is of vital importance in the first place.

From 04 December:

4.  Peru update: Extortion targeting NGOs & corporations in Trujillo area - and northern Peru have been reported. We judge that it could be attributable to lax law enforcement. The security situation there likely to degrade, based on expanding criminal schemes. Consult us.

Comment: This is typical warning intelligence. We monitor for additional indicators and reports, to include sources on the ground for accurate assessments. Ongoing.

We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries. We encourage feedback and questions to our
e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

WEEKLY ROUND-UP (22-28 NOV)

This is the first installment of a weekly round-up. We will go back on our weekly tweets of interest and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. 
When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements.
The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do. It is not a complete list but merely a very small sample for our followers. 

From 26 November: 
1. Brazil update: Reports of muggings on beaches becoming more frequent. Rio seems to be top area. Tourists targeted.
Comment: Brazil's economy is deteriorating; today constituted the 6th interest rate hike to curtail inflation. As the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics approach, criminality - especially targeting tourists - is highly likely to escalate.

2. Taiwan update: Risk of contracting H7N9 bird flu mounting in Guangdong. (Source: http://wantchinatimes.com ).
Comment: Health hazards are both difficult to predict and to measure. A comprehensive database is required in order to capture fidelity. Nonetheless this is achievable with the proper technical input, usually medical consultants to achieve our aims.

From 27 November: 

3.  Thailand: opposition demonstrations spread to other provinces. We assess that demonstrations are unlikely to rise in widespread violence. Street protests are likely the main focus. Unrest affecting tourist areas cannot be discounted. 2010 bloodshed unlikely: lack of indicators.
Comment: Ongoing. Based on past patterns, 2010 violence levels unlikely. Tourist areas may witness civil unrest. Read & head local authorities recommendations to avoid harm. Better yet, always register at your nearest consulate or Embassy.

From 28 November: 
4.  South Sudan: NGOs should be advised that violent muggings and robbery reports are on the rise for Juba. Criminality rate likely to escalate.
Comment: NGOs and gas & oil contractors should be very cautious about the rising criminality rate that has been escalating in recent weeks. The security situation is likely to degrade with little or no warning.

As always, leave nothing to chance. Consult us prior to travel: parsec.consulting@gmail.com


Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

A LOOK BACK AT OUR RECORD...

PAR-SEC Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in vulnerability assessments for corporations, NGOs and private travellers to high risk countries. Our background is military intelligence that encompassed both strategic and tactical nature.  Who are we?
PAR-SEC Consulting was established  in March 2013. Virtually since day one we utilize twitter as a platform in which to offer our followers and the rest of the world insight into what we offer. We pride ourselves in posting indicators of the state of the security situation for countries of high risks to travellers. This is done to provide situational awareness to the public as well as to highlight our firm. Our retweets are often of similar end state. 
After eight months in operation, our clients have been extremely well served. In order to establish credibility towards prospective clients we decided to review all our past judgements and see how they stand in an ever changing world.

1.  09 April: "Did you know that civil unrest is possible for 2013 in the Dominican Republic?"
Comment: A standard google search will result in favourable returns to support our statement.

2. 26 July: "Some countries to avoid right now: Saudi Arabia (MERS) from now until November. Lebanon (sectarian violence) for the next 12 months minimum."
Comment: Four months later these two countries are still making headlines for those specific reasons.

3. 31 July: "Did you know that the level of civil unrest in Brazil is lower than the world's average? Expect a peak by 2015, before the Olympics".
Comment: Brazil's security situation has slightly deteriorated since then. We assess that Brazil will further degrade from a civil unrest position and is highly likely to experience a marginal rise in crime.

4. 11 August: "We judge that civil unrest is highly likely for Haiti in the next 12 months. Based on present political instability and the growing socio- economic frustration: perfect for mounting violence."
Comment: Civil unrest ongoing. Instances of violence recurring and mounting.

5. 20 August: "Mounting violence in Honduras very possible with upcoming elections in November."
Comment: Google search results will demonstrate that the likeliness of violence is relevant. Elections within one week.

6. 29 August: "We judge that the security situation in Lebanon could worsen in the next 5 days. Consult us before travelling there.
Comment: Occurred soon after; unrest and violence in and around Tripoli does not constitute country wide unrest. It is likely to be limited to the north in the mid-term. Lebanon should remain stable overall for the next 6 to 9 months.

The tweets reproduction are limited to these six. They are samples of our firm's work.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

OUR NEW TWITTER POSTS

As of mid November 2013, PAR-SEC Consulting will tweet only a few times daily at the most. Saturdays and Sundays we may tweet, no guarantees. As our work rhythm is focused on research, predictive analysis and intelligence assessments, we have less opportunities to tweet or retweet point form information for travellers to high risk countries. Our tweets will continue to consist of indicators of certain countries under our monitoring focus.
We also thank you for occasional feedback and inquiries.

Thank you.

PAR-SEC Consulting,
Kingston, Canada.

WOULD YOU TRAVEL TO HIGH RISK COUNTRIES IN FULL CONFIDENCE?

Would you travel to high risks countries? If so what preparations would you take? Would there be clear cut parameters? What are the countries you would not travel to?
Would you travel to only certain regions?
Comment below.

USA PLEASED WITH SECURITY PROGRESS IN HAITI

We came across an interesting article during our daily collation process earlier. It entails that the US Department of State has somewhat downgraded their assessment of the security situation for Haiti.
Some summary: " The United States government says it is softening the wording of its travel warning on Haiti, citing a decrease in crime against visitors in the French-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country." 
Link here: http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5850.html

While we basically agree with the State Department's revised advisory, as no one can argue facts, we nonetheless judge that this advice can easily and without warning be reversed.
They base this on the fact that through the efforts of the Haitian National Police (PNH), there was " a decrease in crime committed against visitors, specifically kidnapping". A decrease that they do not readily quantify.
The Haitian government has recognized that the national recovery and its economic growth should target tourism for much needed revenues and so far it has reportedly made some enthusiastic progress and that tourism remains a clear priority for the long term.
The eventuality of higher flows of tourists into Haiti must be mirrored by a heightened and appropriate security situation. Gangs and criminals in Port-au-Prince will inevitably target any weaknesses to exploit in order to carry out attacks and other violent crimes against tourists. The temptation will be palpable. Unfortunately, the PNH will highly likely be overwhelmed by any heightened levels of security to be provided. One strong indicator of this, for example, is the presence of MINUSTAH there. We are not implying that more tourists will result in more crimes; we are stating that the opportunities will rise. 
The U.S. State Department also adds, perhaps as a caveat, that "future travel warnings will reflect Haiti's progress as it continues to improve the infrastructure in the country."
In reply to this, and based on many indicators, the overall improvement to Haiti's infrastructure has been miserably slow evolving and has not necessarily been conducted in a clear priority to the public's benefits. Hence a growing disenfranchisement from the locals. Add to that the stale (or even worsening) socio-economic situation in which a large segment of the Haitian population is confronted with food insecurities or even the rampant corruption at all levels of government and agencies does not offer any reassuring outcome in the near term.
We do not criticize the travel advisory. We assess that any security improvement is far from a new trend for Haiti.
For more about the country or a vulnerability assessment for travel to Haiti or any other non western country, e-mail us: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Please share with us your comments on this topic.  

WILL THERE BE A TERROR ATTACK TARGETING THE SOCHI 2014 WINTER OLYMPICS?

Russia has a very limited experience in successfully dealing with Islamist extremists. It has its own homegrown terror networks that are from the Caucasus, incidentally not far from Sochi.Dokka Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate (IK) Islamist insurgency in Russia's North Caucasus called for attacks on Sochi Olympics last month.
Feel free to elaborate on certain factors that could permit to assess on the eventuality of a successful terror attack. Not a plot. You will have to be factual however a few paragraph in the point form will suffice to drive the point!!!

For instance we need to research the past of the IK, its leaders, its claimed past attacks, any trend of success and credibility, etc. Then we need to juxtapose the Russian FSB and judge how it dealt with the IK. Capabilities are also important factors to consider

As a reminder this is NOT an exercise in plotting any horrible scenario, this is not about hatred of Muslims nor Russians nor an endorsement of terrorism but merely an illustration of how intelligence analysts think, research, perceive and their unbiased thought process. Many problems do surface during the analytical process; the need for extraordinary evaluation and to accurately estimate probabilities can mitigate undigested information.

Good luck!