We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.
From March 10:
1. Brazil update: The gov't has identified up to 5 groups that have hostile intent toward FIFA World Cup; calls for protests to occur starting now. We did assess this via a two part tweet on 27 January. If you are a travel agency booking for FIFA, consult us for details.
Our comment: The threats to the World Cup are likely to be various, highly likely for any of the 12 venues and may come in different forms. Black Block groups will likely take advantage of the high profile of the Cup to organize violent street protests, starting anytime now. Security is reported to include upwards of 100 000 persons, from all security agencies and the military, will include armoured vehicles, drones, street patrols and helicopters. Certain groups such as unions are highly likely to organize strikes and to voice certain grievances as a trigger. Key infrastructure such as airports could see disruptions. The crime rate is likely to elevate due to the opportunities brought by the tens of thousands of additional tourists that will be present at the various venues. Petty crimes, assault and murders are all expected eventualities despite of the high visibility of the security forces that will be in place. Riots in stadiums or in the vicinity of by supporters cannot be discounted. Acts of terrorism by extremists or "lone wolves" may present an attractive instance to act due to the high number of concentrated crowds, however those remain unlikely at this time in the absence of indicators. There are no known terrorist group presently operating within Brazil.
Our outlook: It remains unchanged. It is highly likely that protests with varying degrees of violence will occur on a regular basis and should augment in frequency towards the month of June. A surge of demonstrations during the World Cup seems inevitable for the 12 scheduled locations given the media presence and scrutiny. We judge with confidence that Brazilian security forces will use deadly force if necessary which may trigger an escalation from the crowds.Tourists and other visitors to the many Cup cities are likely to be injured or to be detained if caught in protestor crowds despite of themselves. Any major negative outcome during the World Cup is likely to result in added scrutiny and major security revisions prior to the 2016 XXXI Summer Olympics hosted in Rio de Janeiro.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
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