We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.
From 14 March:
1. Travelling soon to Armenia? Just abiding to your gov't travel warnings & advisories will not be enough: many information gaps exist. Consult us to stay safer & find out what your gov't has left out as critical info travellers must need prior & while in Yerevan & [other] areas.
From 15 March:
2. Going to the FIFA World Cup in Brazil? How about your safety? Why can't your government travel warning websites or your trusted travel agency tell you this? We can. Consult us prior to travel to higher risk destinations.
From 18 March:
3. How often your gov't travel advice can be off the mark: Canada's D-FAIT deletes travel warning [terrorism risks] for Sochi on 17 March [now that the Olympics are over]. Nil predictive elements [was ever provided], over cautious advice & important info gaps [were supplied]. Governments are not in the business to assess what could occur next for their citizens while abroad. We identify all info gaps & advise/assess what is likely to occur next & our security recommendations.
Our comment: Your government offers travel tips, services and advice for citizens who travel overseas. Private companies also offer similar services. In fact, there are hundreds of travel risk management companies worldwide these days and they can easily cater to the requirements of all types of travellers; business executives, the rich, tourists, interest groups, company employees, etc. They all have one sole common point: the desire to mitigate security risks of their clients. Some companies offer multiple services such as concierge services, duty of care on behalf of employers, emergency evacuation when it is time sensitive, to address possible unethical conducts to avoid or pre-travel advisories and briefings. Most of those services are very costly and can even be similar to some free services and advice supplied by many governments. Technology plays a great part in the capability of certain of those companies to support their clients while they are abroad. A very simple service of convenience are text alerts or e-mail updates but in some cases it is possible that cell phone coverage is non-existent.... Or internet support is archaic... While it may be true, some companies nonetheless carry titles such as "market leader" or "we use award winning technology" or some companies are very proud to highlight the fact that retired Generals, CEOs or high ranking government officials sit on their board of diectors. Sometimes, the services offered are complicated, are time consuming to execute, can be "gimmicky" in appeal or rarely practical. Often, clients who retain the services of these risk management companies have uncomplicated requirements and they need to know what is required to avoid being hurt, sick and to get out unharmed. They need to know before they travel there and nobody has a crystal ball to see the future.
That's when intelligence comes to play. That is what we do best.
That General on the board of a prestigious risk management company is there for his connections or for his administrative experience, not for his intelligence analytical competences. We will not explain at great length what we do or how we discern and collect information, study trends, analyze or do things in general. We have expanded on these topics in previous blog posts. It is generally admitted that several different intelligence techniques can be used by the hundreds of travel risk management firms out there. We have also concluded that many travel advice websites liberally use the word "intelligence" without making any assessments or offering an outlook! For example a "Travel Risk Intelligence Solution" company has a very confusing use of the word intelligence as they do not remotely come close to offer any assessment for what is likely to occur next for its clients. We have supported with success many military operations in hostile environments, being there ourselves for months at a time, assisting in the planning of combat involving thousands of troops and millions of dollars worth of mission essential equipment. Repeatedly. As former intelligence analysts we spent incalculable amount of time supporting military Commanders in their decision making process to save lives and to prevail. We did not acquire our experience wearing suits and ties, working out of a skyscraper. While we admit that we are not PHDs in geopolitics, international relations or formal academics that have worked for very successful and high profile institutions we offer a service that distinguishes us. Usually most travel risk management companies will tell their clients:
a) What happened, and
b) What it means.
Beyond that, they will want to exercise due diligence and update their clients when new threats, hazards or risks arise. Or... to paraphrase one of those companies, "to inform the client of evolving events often before they happen". Sometimes superfluous advice is provided, while at some other time non-committal assessments are made while using highly academic terminology. Overall most advice is reactive in nature, alike reporting the news and involves updating or modifying the advice they provide as required. While this can be normal, it may lack fundamental insight. This is what we provide for our clients, thus distinguishing us:
a) What happened;
b) What it means, and
c) What is likely to occur next.
As a reminder, we use Twitter mostly as a promotional platform however almost daily we will tweet indicators to the security situation of a country of monitoring interest or concern. Indicators constitute small pieces of raw information with which we can make sense, analyze and transform that information into intelligence. On occasions, not all assessments come to realization and to alleviate this outcome, we constantly carry out monitoring. Sometimes we do freely offer assessments via twitter or on this blog as a public service and for us to establish credibility as a newer travel security advice firm.
We tweeted this on 28 November: "South Sudan: NGOs should be advised that violent muggings and robbery reports are on the rise for Juba. Criminality rate likely to escalate."
In our first Weekly Round-Up we commented: " NGOs and gas & oil contractors should be very cautious about the rising criminality rate that has been escalating in recent weeks. The security situation is likely to degrade with little or no warning." This was not a lucky guess, a result of speculation or "a gut feeling". Within weeks, a political power struggle broke out, a serious security degradation occurred, expats were evacuated and hundreds of local nationals have died since.
This is not unique. We tweeted this on 05 December: " Central African Republic: The rebellion is likely shifting into a religion based conflict. Of the few eventualities, we judge that the region may suffer from the effects of a potential civil war. Worst outcome likely infiltration of AQ affiliated extremists from north." A month later, Amnesty International reported several massacres committed by the Christian group called Anti-Balaka against Muslim civilians (even if the Seleka rebels being Muslim did overthrow the government earlier in 2013, full fledged religious massacres had not begun yet). We all sadly know what is occurring there since. On 21 February we articulated on the probability that "It won't take long before an al-Qaeda offshoot appears in the CAR."
On 19 March (3 1/2 months after our first tweet), a representative of a Crisis Management Assistance company tweeted: "Some more mujahideen warnings issued in response to
By now, most of our followers are aware that we did assess that terror events at the sites of the Sochi Games were highly unlikely to occur. We assessed this accurately beginning back on 09, 11, 29, 30 December, again on 29 January, on 11 February and on 07 March via tweets. Again, these seven tweets did not constitute an "educated guess" on our part because that's when intelligence comes to play and that is what we do best. We are not aware of another travel "risk management company" that accurately assessed this outcome. A very reputed and successful Global Intelligence website based in Texas tweeted this on 29 December: "Today's
Another tweet from an "innovative global security company specialising in travel risk management, consultancy and assistance services" dated 24 February reminded us that `It is impossible to predict when a suicide bombing will occur. We do monitor Lebanon closely and report on incidents asap.` While we basically concur, that admission falls short. Trend analysis could have established a probability for future events, both in time and space and quantifying that probability could also be articulated with varying degrees of confidence.
We have also highlighted our assessed outcome for the 2014 FIFA World Cup to be hosted by Brazil beginning in three months. That information can be found here.
Finally, on 10 February, a gentleman from the RSA tweeted about his own nation: "I predict we'll have our spring in about 7 months".
We will check back in September...
Our outlook: We offer actionable, discreet and accurate vulnerability assessments. We do not offer complicated services of GPS tracking, emergency evacuation services, travel safety reports (your government offers this for free) or other complicated services that are costly and indicative of the reactive nature of most travel "risk management" companies. We, however, provide easy to implement guidelines and recommendations that will enable our clients to have a safe and successful trip. We offer probably the most cost effective advice available for travellers to higher risk countries. Ask us about our services. We are also particularly interested to partner with small, start-up companies that require to operate abroad or to collaborate with travel agencies who specialize in travel to those same destinations. We fully stand behind our intelligence assessments.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
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