We
will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and
expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the
security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability
assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are
analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed.
If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The
goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research
that we do.
From 31 March:
1. Kenya update: It is likely that government forces will heighten clashes with
suspected Al-Shabaab & Somalis. Collateral risks possible. Mombasa area especially at risk. Consult us prior to travel there.
Our comment: On 01 April, the day after we tweeted our Kenya update, Kenyan authorities had reportedly arrested "more than 650 (Somalis) after bomb blasts", triggered by the death of six people by bomb attacks the previous day in Nairobi. This type of attack can usually be attributed to Islamist extremists as it follows clear trends. On Tuesday as well, a Muslim cleric with ties to al-Shabaab was killed, the third in two years. Kenya has been hit by a series of attacks
since sending troops into southern Somalia in October 2011 to battle
Al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab insurgents. The
prominent faith in the country is 84% Christian (of which nearly half
are protestants) while Islam amounts to approximately 11% or about 5 000
000 of the total population. Previously, on 28 March an attack against a church in the Mombasa area was reported, killing six. Back in September 2013, there was the mall attack. But enough of reporting the news!
Our outlook: Kenyan authorities have taken a "anti-terrorist" posture since last week, following a string of attacks from suspected al-Shabaab by issuing strong statements and stepping up security measures against terror suspects. Somali refugees were ordered to return to designated camps and press reports mentioned that a "shoot to kill" order had been carried out. The Somali community in Kenya has been especially targeted whenever attacks are suspected to be terrorist in origin. This is likely to lead Islamist extremist groups to react by furthering attacks against Kenya. Today, armed police began patrolling the streets of Mombasa, which is a popular tourist destination. For now.
Given the fact that the Kenyan government just announced that their troops
in Somalia will not end the war against Al-Shabaab until they are defeated, future attacks against Kenya are basically assured. We judge with confidence that this will lead to a degradation of the security situation for most parts of Kenya. An asymmetric insurgency is extremely difficult to effectively deal with and this will continue to be the likely fashion for future attacks. As a Muslim group is scheduled to have a peaceful protest set for Friday 04 April in Mombasa and given the fact that previous killings of clerics have sparked deadly riots, with supporters clashing with the police, the opportunities for retribution or revenge attacks will persist. Our outlook also includes a clear risk of collateral threat for travellers to urban areas of Kenya while kidnappings are highly likely to be reported.
Every
travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate
research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against
the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can
determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
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