WEEKLY ROUND-UP #17 (11 APRIL-18 APRIL)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 11 April:

1.  Any travel intelligence & risk management firms out there that actually make assessments?

From April 12:

2. Expect our security assessment for FIFA Brazil World Cup host Cuiaba later tomorrow. We provide the best insight & advice for travellers.

Our comment: Since it is important to always provide information that is up to date and to make a difference - to offer a predictive element - for our clients we deem necessary to also offer up to date information for our followers. For that reason this week we will exercise due diligence and provide an up to date Vulnerability Assessment for travellers to Punta Cana which was originally offered on a courtesy basis on 18 July 2013.

Note: Readers should also note that the following constitutes a condensed and generic variety of what we research, analyze, assess and deliver to the end user. If you have to travel to Punta Cana or other higher risk areas, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

INFORMATION VALID AS OF: 17 April 2014

INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This vulnerability assessment provides actionable intelligence for travel to Punta Cana, Dominican republic. Two findings are identified up front: a high level of crime as well as the presence of health hazards. Upon arrival register at your nearest consulate and exchange contact information. Always leave an updated itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information. Get proper vaccinations prior to travel. Obey direction from local authorities. Safe keep your passport and make copies for re-issue in case of loss. Enjoy your worry free vacation!

ASSESSMENT OF THREAT & RISK FACTORS

1.  Government/security forces: Reports of criminals impersonating police officers have been reported, particularly after departure from the Las Americas International Airport near Santo Domingo. Similarly it is possible that this may also occur in the Punta Cana area. For example, demands for immediate payment of traffic fines were witnessed. Actual cases of security forces or real police officers posing a threat to tourists or demanding bribes remain isolated however seem to be on the rise. Country wide, police forces have the reputation to be corrupt and some are involved in drug trafficking or other criminal activities. The tourist police (POLITUR) is present in the Punta Cana area and there are mixed results about their level of effectiveness as a service to tourists and misconduct has been witnessed. Tourists are subject to local laws. Emergency phone numbers are either 112 or 911. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated from government or security forces are assessed as LOW and likely to be collateral in nature. (See annexes A and B for full definitions).
Our recommendations: Use common sense while in and around Punta Cana. Abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted. Do not buy or consume illegal substances while there.

2.  Kidnappings: Instances of kidnappings for the Punta Cana area remain rare compared to the capital city area. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated with kidnappings are assessed as LOW.
Our recommendations: Do not show obvious signs of affluence when outside your resort or in town; avoid wearing watches, jewellery or finer type clothing. Remain in groups (i.e. book a group excursion) when practical and maintain a low profile while enjoying your stay. 

3.  Crime: While violent crimes including assault have affected a few tourists, petty crime is common in the area. Thefts have been reported in resorts. Exercise caution and be aware of your surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of run” crimes are reported and do not leave your personal belongings unattended on the beach. Theft from hotel rooms and hotel room safes has occurred. Some tourists have been victimized in taxis. Fraud and "drive by robberies" tend to be on the rise. Gangs and organized crime groups, to include transnational drug traffickers are present in the region. Although there has been an increase in violent crimes and homicides, tourism resorts are unlikely to be targeted. Reporting crimes to the local authorities may or may not be satisfactorily resolved. The vulnerability factors associated from crime in the Punta Cana area are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Be aware of your surroundings and do not show obvious signs of affluence: dress low profile, do not openly handle money or other valuables while in town - even in the daytime hours. Crime is generally not violent if the victim cooperates; carrying a decoy wallet with expired credit cards and some low denomination US dollars in case of armed robbery should alleviate many bad outcomes.

4. Biases: As almost in anywhere else in the world, there are reports of discrimination based on sexual orientation, religion, race, etc. "Flirting" that border on sexual harassment against women are reported more regularly. The vulnerability factors associated from biases towards tourists while outside of the resort are assessed as LOW, if our recommendation is followed.  However within the resort confines there are NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

Our recommendations: Some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary. Women should never venture alone outside the resorts.

5. Terrorism/Insurgencies: No terrorist groups are known to operate in the DR however it is likely a transit point for extremists. Additionally, there are no insurgent groups present that have been identified. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year. The vulnerability factors associated from terrorism or insurgencies to tourists are assessed as NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

6.  Civil unrest/Violent protests: In the past year there have been popular protests against the government elsewhere in the country and are highly likely to reoccur during 2014.  There have been no reports of serious civil unrest in the past year for the Punta Cana area. Tourists are unlikely to be directly affected but are likely at risk if in the vicinity of large and sudden crowd gatherings. The vulnerability factors associated from civil unrest and violent protests to tourists are nonetheless assessed as LOW.
Our recommendations: While in town, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings and ask your resort staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS

7.  Health: Dengue fever is now endemic to the DR. Approximately 32,000 suspected cases of cholera and close to 500 related deaths have been reported since late 2010. There are occasional reports of cases of malaria as well as the chikungunya virus. Water-borne, food-borne, parasitic and other infectious diseases (including hepatitis, HIV, filariasis and leptospirosis) are prevalent. Medical care in Punta Cana should be adequate for most problems. The hazard factors associated from health and diseases to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Ensure you do consult with your local vaccination clinic for all required immunization prior to travel. Common sense practices such as drinking from sealed bottles and to avoid consuming ice are prescribed. Purchase medical insurance prior to departure and inquire about the policy limitations.

8.  Climate: Tropical storms, tropical depressions and other natural disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and droughts) do occur in the DR. Hurricane season is between the months of May and November. There are two rainy seasons, the heaviest being from May to August. Visitors to the island need to be aware that many buildings may not be in compliance with western building codes. Some travellers may be affected by the high level of humidity during the summer months. Hazards such as earthquakes are unpredictable however the latest of note occurred in March 2014 at a 4,3 magnitude. The hazard factors associated from climatic issues to tourists to Punta Cana are assessed as LOW. Those factors may rise to MEDIUM during the summer months.
Our recommendations: Natural disasters are often impossible to predict so it is advisable for visitors to monitor the weather forecasts especially during the summer months.

9.  Topography: The eastern part of Hispaniola Island, which the DR shares with Haiti, is mostly composed of rugged highlands and mountains with fertile valleys. There are no volcanoes in the DR. Landslides and floods do occasionally occur. Punta Cana sits at 12 meters above sea level. There is NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from topography while in the Punta Cana area.

10.  Infrastructure:   Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Driving after dark is not recommended due to poor lighting. Defensive driving skills is a necessity for those planning to drive in the Punta Cana area. Telecommunications and internet services are usually reliable in resorts. There is NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from infrastructure while in the Punta Cana area.

VULNERABILITY FACTORS	ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES	LOW
KIDNAPPINGS	LOW
CRIMES & GANGS	MEDIUM
BIASES	LOW
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY	NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS	LOW

HAZARDS	ASSESMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES	MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS	LOW TO MEDIUM
TOPOGRAPHY	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD

Our assessment: Crime and health hazards will constitute the most significant risks for tourists to Punta Cana.

Recommended courses of action: Plan to fly in and out of Punta Cana. Overland travel around the country is not advisable. Always be part of a group when in town. Women should not be alone outside of the resort. After sun dawn, it is preferred to stay within the confines of your resort especially if restaurants and other leisurely activities are available on site. Do not divulge the name of your resort or room number to strangers. Be aware of the surroundings. Obey local laws. Do not touch unknown animals and insects. During the summer months view weather forecasts. Do not forget travel insurance to cover hospitalizations and airline cancellations, etc. Get prescribed immunization associated for travel there, avoid being a target for crime by heading our recommendations and enjoy your stay in Punta Cana. 

Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

Vulnerability Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No imminent threats have been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threats are mitigated if certain precautions are taken. Risk is assessed at less than 25%.

MEDIUM:  Incentive to carry out hostile intent. This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Review our recommendations. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: High likelihood to commit a hostile act. The associated undertaking is to be avoided. This is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard has been identified.

 LOW: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 

MEDIUM: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.

HIGH: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.

Annex B – Terminology

Our definitions & associated key words

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: Actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.

Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.

Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.

Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.

Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.

References:

Full disclosure and attribution are available upon request. One confidential source will be intentionally omitted.

We stand fully behind our accurate assessments.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

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