WEEKLY ROUND-UP #16 (04 APRIL-10 APRIL)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 05 April:

1.  We retweeted from @BateFelix  Two Italian priests and a Canadian nun kidnapped in northern Cameroon - Vatican radio http://reut.rs/1jeXfEh 

2.  Thailand update: We have indicators that a military coup could occur due to frictions between key personalities. Events in the next 48-72 hours could be decisive. Risks of mounting violence in Bangkok could be a driving factor.

3.  We retweeted from @BreakDengue  In the 60's 15,000 people were infected with dengue each year. Today 390 Million. Where's the media?

From 07 April:

4.  Cambodia Update: Rare good news? Reported dengue cases so far in 2014 are down (http://phnompenhpost.com ). Rainy season soon...

From 08 April:

5.  Honduras update: Filipino crew member of cruise ship was shot dead in Roatan. Violent gangs migrating there cannot be discounted.

From 09 April:

6.  FIFA Brazil update: UK's FCO will provide "up to date" travel advice for travellers for 2014 World Cup on 29 May. Common sense tips are given for now. Another example of gov't not providing assessment for what is likely to happen during the Games, ahead. We can. Consult us!

7.  UK gov't reassess Sharm el-Sheikh. This is an indicator of degrading security & follows a trend that we assessed. http://o.canada.com/travel/britain-sends-security-team-to-assess-terror-threat-at-egyptian-resorts/ …

Our comment: It seems that whatever we read, see, or watch on TV there is always events abroad that makes us think "is it safe to travel any longer?"

Obviously common sense, due diligence as well as careful planning will partially alleviate possible unfortunate situations, especially when it is reasonable to foresee some circumstances and should dictate where to go or not.

For example, the Republic of Cameroon is a destination at a higher risk due to certain reasons however the northern parts of the country bordering Nigeria have seen many incursions by the militant Islamist group Boko Haram. To have Christian priests and a nun present in the area, carrying out very worthy humanitarian work was nonetheless ill advised given the threat of retribution by a terrorist group that have both capability and intent to target these persons. Likewise, it is also not recommended to visit a destination that is at risk of widespread civil unrest, where endemics are occurring or when travel is discouraged.

Many countries that are classified as high risk today were safe to travel or even to live in 30 years ago. What has changed? More importantly what is the trend? Will safe countries today become dangerous to visit in 10 years? Are there any hope that higher risk regions today will become safer for travel in five years? What usually triggers an overall security degradation for a particular country? Many factors must be considered. For us at PAR-SEC Consulting we have identified three factors that can shape and influence where a country is headed:
     - Demographics/ethnic shifts

     - Economic opportunities for all and education

     - Good governance and democracy

The above are encompassing many other sub components such as the absence of corruption, the lack of persecution of a specific minority, persistent political instability, etc. The degrading socio-economic situation of a country is a clear trigger for civil unrest. Venezuela comes to mind. Sectarian violence tends to be the flavour of the day and examples abound. On the other hand, most of Europe is a at a low risk for a serious security degradation.

Our outlook: Consider that during a poll conducted by CNN 67% of respondents from more than 70 countries identified security and safety as key factors that influenced their travel decisions. More and more in the future, travellers will require sound advice based on actionable intelligence to mitigate threats, hazards and risks. Innovation is required for tomorrow's challenges for travellers to higher risk countries. By 2050, it is believed that 70% of the world population will be concentrated in both sub-Saharan Africa and in the Middle-East. The overall classification of high risk for many of those countries should remain if not degrade further: urbanization without sanitation will bring pandemics or even new diseases. Crimes of opportunity may become the norm for survival without any basic means for life. It is likely - or at least plausible - that many areas of the globe will not be advisable for travel, based on many factors, some of which we have enumerated above. As a general trend, we judge that the world that we live in will become less secure where prejudices and poverty will breed extremism and terrorism, as one of many possible outcomes. Sound travel advice that incorporate predictive elements will become the norm.
Lastly, here is a potentially deadly situation, as reported from @TrueNomads.             

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.