WEEKLY ROUND-UP #17 (11 APRIL-18 APRIL)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 11 April:

1.  Any travel intelligence & risk management firms out there that actually make assessments?

From April 12:

2. Expect our security assessment for FIFA Brazil World Cup host Cuiaba later tomorrow. We provide the best insight & advice for travellers.

Our comment: Since it is important to always provide information that is up to date and to make a difference - to offer a predictive element - for our clients we deem necessary to also offer up to date information for our followers. For that reason this week we will exercise due diligence and provide an up to date Vulnerability Assessment for travellers to Punta Cana which was originally offered on a courtesy basis on 18 July 2013.

Note: Readers should also note that the following constitutes a condensed and generic variety of what we research, analyze, assess and deliver to the end user. If you have to travel to Punta Cana or other higher risk areas, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

INFORMATION VALID AS OF: 17 April 2014

INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This vulnerability assessment provides actionable intelligence for travel to Punta Cana, Dominican republic. Two findings are identified up front: a high level of crime as well as the presence of health hazards. Upon arrival register at your nearest consulate and exchange contact information. Always leave an updated itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information. Get proper vaccinations prior to travel. Obey direction from local authorities. Safe keep your passport and make copies for re-issue in case of loss. Enjoy your worry free vacation!

ASSESSMENT OF THREAT & RISK FACTORS

1.  Government/security forces: Reports of criminals impersonating police officers have been reported, particularly after departure from the Las Americas International Airport near Santo Domingo. Similarly it is possible that this may also occur in the Punta Cana area. For example, demands for immediate payment of traffic fines were witnessed. Actual cases of security forces or real police officers posing a threat to tourists or demanding bribes remain isolated however seem to be on the rise. Country wide, police forces have the reputation to be corrupt and some are involved in drug trafficking or other criminal activities. The tourist police (POLITUR) is present in the Punta Cana area and there are mixed results about their level of effectiveness as a service to tourists and misconduct has been witnessed. Tourists are subject to local laws. Emergency phone numbers are either 112 or 911. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated from government or security forces are assessed as LOW and likely to be collateral in nature. (See annexes A and B for full definitions).
Our recommendations: Use common sense while in and around Punta Cana. Abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted. Do not buy or consume illegal substances while there.

2.  Kidnappings: Instances of kidnappings for the Punta Cana area remain rare compared to the capital city area. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated with kidnappings are assessed as LOW.
Our recommendations: Do not show obvious signs of affluence when outside your resort or in town; avoid wearing watches, jewellery or finer type clothing. Remain in groups (i.e. book a group excursion) when practical and maintain a low profile while enjoying your stay. 

3.  Crime: While violent crimes including assault have affected a few tourists, petty crime is common in the area. Thefts have been reported in resorts. Exercise caution and be aware of your surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of surroundings, especially after dark. Avoid showing signs of run” crimes are reported and do not leave your personal belongings unattended on the beach. Theft from hotel rooms and hotel room safes has occurred. Some tourists have been victimized in taxis. Fraud and "drive by robberies" tend to be on the rise. Gangs and organized crime groups, to include transnational drug traffickers are present in the region. Although there has been an increase in violent crimes and homicides, tourism resorts are unlikely to be targeted. Reporting crimes to the local authorities may or may not be satisfactorily resolved. The vulnerability factors associated from crime in the Punta Cana area are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Be aware of your surroundings and do not show obvious signs of affluence: dress low profile, do not openly handle money or other valuables while in town - even in the daytime hours. Crime is generally not violent if the victim cooperates; carrying a decoy wallet with expired credit cards and some low denomination US dollars in case of armed robbery should alleviate many bad outcomes.

4. Biases: As almost in anywhere else in the world, there are reports of discrimination based on sexual orientation, religion, race, etc. "Flirting" that border on sexual harassment against women are reported more regularly. The vulnerability factors associated from biases towards tourists while outside of the resort are assessed as LOW, if our recommendation is followed.  However within the resort confines there are NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

Our recommendations: Some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary. Women should never venture alone outside the resorts.

5. Terrorism/Insurgencies: No terrorist groups are known to operate in the DR however it is likely a transit point for extremists. Additionally, there are no insurgent groups present that have been identified. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year. The vulnerability factors associated from terrorism or insurgencies to tourists are assessed as NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

6.  Civil unrest/Violent protests: In the past year there have been popular protests against the government elsewhere in the country and are highly likely to reoccur during 2014.  There have been no reports of serious civil unrest in the past year for the Punta Cana area. Tourists are unlikely to be directly affected but are likely at risk if in the vicinity of large and sudden crowd gatherings. The vulnerability factors associated from civil unrest and violent protests to tourists are nonetheless assessed as LOW.
Our recommendations: While in town, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings and ask your resort staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS

7.  Health: Dengue fever is now endemic to the DR. Approximately 32,000 suspected cases of cholera and close to 500 related deaths have been reported since late 2010. There are occasional reports of cases of malaria as well as the chikungunya virus. Water-borne, food-borne, parasitic and other infectious diseases (including hepatitis, HIV, filariasis and leptospirosis) are prevalent. Medical care in Punta Cana should be adequate for most problems. The hazard factors associated from health and diseases to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Ensure you do consult with your local vaccination clinic for all required immunization prior to travel. Common sense practices such as drinking from sealed bottles and to avoid consuming ice are prescribed. Purchase medical insurance prior to departure and inquire about the policy limitations.

8.  Climate: Tropical storms, tropical depressions and other natural disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and droughts) do occur in the DR. Hurricane season is between the months of May and November. There are two rainy seasons, the heaviest being from May to August. Visitors to the island need to be aware that many buildings may not be in compliance with western building codes. Some travellers may be affected by the high level of humidity during the summer months. Hazards such as earthquakes are unpredictable however the latest of note occurred in March 2014 at a 4,3 magnitude. The hazard factors associated from climatic issues to tourists to Punta Cana are assessed as LOW. Those factors may rise to MEDIUM during the summer months.
Our recommendations: Natural disasters are often impossible to predict so it is advisable for visitors to monitor the weather forecasts especially during the summer months.

9.  Topography: The eastern part of Hispaniola Island, which the DR shares with Haiti, is mostly composed of rugged highlands and mountains with fertile valleys. There are no volcanoes in the DR. Landslides and floods do occasionally occur. Punta Cana sits at 12 meters above sea level. There is NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from topography while in the Punta Cana area.

10.  Infrastructure:   Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Driving after dark is not recommended due to poor lighting. Defensive driving skills is a necessity for those planning to drive in the Punta Cana area. Telecommunications and internet services are usually reliable in resorts. There is NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from infrastructure while in the Punta Cana area.

VULNERABILITY FACTORS	ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES	LOW
KIDNAPPINGS	LOW
CRIMES & GANGS	MEDIUM
BIASES	LOW
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY	NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS	LOW

HAZARDS	ASSESMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES	MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS	LOW TO MEDIUM
TOPOGRAPHY	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD

Our assessment: Crime and health hazards will constitute the most significant risks for tourists to Punta Cana.

Recommended courses of action: Plan to fly in and out of Punta Cana. Overland travel around the country is not advisable. Always be part of a group when in town. Women should not be alone outside of the resort. After sun dawn, it is preferred to stay within the confines of your resort especially if restaurants and other leisurely activities are available on site. Do not divulge the name of your resort or room number to strangers. Be aware of the surroundings. Obey local laws. Do not touch unknown animals and insects. During the summer months view weather forecasts. Do not forget travel insurance to cover hospitalizations and airline cancellations, etc. Get prescribed immunization associated for travel there, avoid being a target for crime by heading our recommendations and enjoy your stay in Punta Cana. 

Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

Vulnerability Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No imminent threats have been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threats are mitigated if certain precautions are taken. Risk is assessed at less than 25%.

MEDIUM:  Incentive to carry out hostile intent. This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Review our recommendations. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: High likelihood to commit a hostile act. The associated undertaking is to be avoided. This is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard has been identified.

 LOW: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 

MEDIUM: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.

HIGH: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.

Annex B – Terminology

Our definitions & associated key words

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: Actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.

Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.

Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.

Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.

Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.

References:

Full disclosure and attribution are available upon request. One confidential source will be intentionally omitted.

We stand fully behind our accurate assessments.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries. 

We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.  

CUIABA VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT DURING 2014 FIFA WORLD CUP

Note: This vulnerability assessment is disseminated as a product demonstrator that best illustrates our particular services to travellers to higher risk countries. We strive to provide our clients with fidelity of insight that is tailored to their specific destination and requirements. Reports are never reproduced for third party use as circumstances are continually evolving, even for identical endpoints. Two types of reports are usually produced: vulnerability assessments aimed for tourists and distinct assessments for corporations and business travellers. This courtesy report is intended for tourists to the city of Cuiaba, Brazil for the duration of the 2014 FIFA World Cup from 12 June until 13 July. Readers should also note that the following constitutes a condensed and generic variety of what we research, analyze, assess and deliver to the end user. If you have to travel to Cuiaba or other higher risk areas, contact us for a preliminary and gratuitous consultation to define if you require our services: parsec.consulting@gmail.com

*** Updated 21 May: see para 7 "Health"***

INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This vulnerability assessment provides actionable intelligence for travel to Cuiaba, during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Four findings are identified up front: gang related violence, civil unrest, a high crime rate as well as the presence of health hazards. Upon arrival register at your nearest consulate and exchange contact information. Always leave an updated itinerary with a third party of trust as well as pertinent related information. Get proper vaccinations prior to travel. Obey direction from local authorities. Safe keep your passport and make copies for re-issue in case of loss. Four matches are scheduled at the Arena Pantanal. Enjoy your worry free vacation!

ASSESSMENT OF THREAT & RISK FACTORS

1.  Government/security forces: The law enforcement agencies that operate in Cuiaba have the reputation for being corrupt and have been accused of human rights violations and some members are known to participate in illegitimate activities such as drug trafficking. Illegal arrests and demands for bribes have been reported. Armed clashes have occurred in the past between police and gangs. To contact the local police dial 190 (military police) or 194. Always inform your nearest consulate if experiencing legal problems. Police capability and readiness remain a concern. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated from government or security forces are assessed as LOW and likely to be collateral in nature. (See annexes A and B for full definitions).

Our recommendations: Use common sense while in Cuiaba. Abide to all laws and directives from local authorities as warranted.

2.  Kidnappings: Kidnappings targeting tourists is a concern during the scheduled games and are likely to be opportunistic. Express kidnappings (a method of abduction that is used to obtain small amounts of money by driving the victim from one ATM to another to withdraw the victim’s account limit) have been reported. The vulnerability factors to tourists associated with kidnappings are assessed as LOW if our recommendations are followed.

Our recommendations: Do not show obvious signs of affluence when in public; avoid wearing watches, jewellery or finer type clothing. Remain in groups when practical and maintain a low profile while enjoying your stay.

3.  Crime: Petty crimes and thefts are common occurrences for Cuiaba.  Thefts from hotel rooms happen. Violent crimes against tourists and locals alike such as homicides, armed assaults, robberies, sexual assaults, and home invasions are regularly reported. There was a 50% increase in murders in the first three months of 2014, mostly driven by drug trafficking. Gangs and organized crime groups are present in the area. Be aware that it is likely that little will be done by law enforcement to recover stolen goods or to resolve actual crimes. The vulnerability factors associated from crimes are assessed as MEDIUM at this time but could be elevated with little or no warning. 
Our recommendations: Be situationally aware of your surroundings. Do not openly handle money. Never openly display your cell phone or other valuables as “snatch and run” crimes can happen. Do not leave any of your personal belongings unattended. Avoid showing signs of affluence. You are advised against public transportation due to pick pockets and being alone especially after sun dawn. Do not offer opportunities to become a victim of crime; consult our booklet for appropriate courses of action.

4.  Biases: There have been reports of discrimination and abuses based on sexual orientation, gender and race. We remind travellers that local culture, religious and social perceptions, opinions and sensitivities can differ from what is accustomed. Brazil has legislated anti-discrimination laws and are fully part of the country's constitution. Nonetheless, assaults and even murders targeting the LGBT community have been reported. The vulnerability factors associated from biases towards tourists are assessed as LOW, if our recommendation is followed.
Our recommendation: Some behaviour reconsideration may be judicious as necessary.

 

5. Terrorism/Insurgencies: There are no known terrorist groups operating in Brazil. Insurgent groups have been identified however none are believed to operate in the Cuiaba area. These groups have political motives and would highly unlikely target westerners. There have been no terrorist or armed insurgent acts reported in the past year. The vulnerability factors associated from terrorism or insurgencies to tourists are assessed as NO RECOGNIZED THREAT.

6.  Civil unrest/violent protests: The Brazilian franchise of the Black Bloc is the most likely antagonizing group that is likely to cause and stir civil unrest with varying degrees of violence during the FIFA world Cup. Gatherings can be hasty and it is possible to get caught in a crowd without warning. We judge with confidence that demonstrations will occur periodically prior to and during the scheduled games for media attention to various causes. Fights may erupt between fans during games in and out of arena site. The vulnerability factors associated from civil unrest and violent protests to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM, based on indicators available to us at this time.
Our recommendations: Even though it may be difficult, leave the immediate vicinity of sudden crowd gatherings as acts of violence can suddenly arise. Be proactive and ask your hotel staff for any scheduled demonstrations for where you will be.

ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS

7.  Health: Many prevalent diseases are present in Brazil and in the Cuiaba area. Air pollution is also a concern. Local food and water supplies may be contaminated. Poor sanitation exist and is not at western standards. Earlier this month there was a person who reportedly contracted H1N1. Reportedly, Brazil has 1,4 millions cases of Dengue since 2013. Some of those cases were in four of the FIFA host cities while Sao Paolo had over 1000 cases since early May 2014 alone. The hazard factors associated from health and diseases to tourists are assessed as MEDIUM.
Our recommendations: Ensure you do consult with your local vaccination clinic for all required immunization prior to travel. If ill go to private clinics while in Cuiaba. To date there are no known vaccines  for Dengue fever. Common sense practices such as drinking from sealed bottles and to avoid consuming ice are prescribed. Purchase medical insurance prior to departure and inquire about the policy limitations.

8.  Risks from climate: Cuiaba does present only one major hazard related to its climate as it is a tropical and highly humid destination which can be challenging for travellers from more temperate climates and the elderly. The months of June and July are usually the coolest (if one considers +20 Celsius as such, plus being in the southern hemisphere). Most of the rainy season is over by the month of June. The hazard factors associated from climactic issues to FIFA fans while in Cuiaba are assessed as LOW.

Our recommendations: The lowest temperatures recorded were at +6 during some nights. Bring a sweater!

9.  Topography: The Cuiaba area sits at less than 200 meters above sea level. Flooding have occured for the Cuiaba river basin, however not for the months of June and July.  Earthquakes have not been recorded recently. There are NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD associated from topographical issues to tourists.

10. Infrastructure: Traffic laws are similar to those in Canada but are often not respected.Hospitals are other medical services are not to western standards. Use taxis of reliability for commuting around the city. Outside major towns, road quality varies. Do choose to fly in/out of Cuiaba. Telecommunications and internet services are modest but usually reliable. Cell phone outages are possible in stadiums for Sao Paolo and Curitiba and 4G networks could very well be affected the most due to lack of antennas to accommodate concentration of fans. As much as 80% of Brazil's hydro power is generated by dams and most areas of the country are presently experiencing a drought. The low reservoir levels have raised the possibility of electricity rationing during the World Cup and while rain is forecasted regularly for the region surrounding Cuiaba for the next two weeks, we still judge that interruptions cannot be discounted. There are NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD factors associated from infrastructure in Cuiaba.

THREAT FACTORS	ASSESSMENT
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES	LOW
KIDNAPPINGS	LOW
CRIMES & GANGS	MEDIUM
BIASES	LOW
TERRORISM/INSURGENCY	NO RECOGNIZED THREAT
CIVIL UNREST/VIOLENT PROTESTS	MEDIUM

HAZARDS	ASSESSMENT
HEALTH & DISEASES	MEDIUM
CLIMATE RISKS	LOW
TOPOGRAPHY	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD
INFRASTRUCTURE	NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD

Our assessment: Crime, civil unrest and health hazards during the FIFA World Cup in Cuiaba are the three main risk factors to tourists. Our overall assessment remains unchanged.

Recommended courses of action: Plan to fly in and out of Cuiaba. Overland travel is not recommended. Be part of a group to/from Arena Pantanal. Hire a taxi from the recommendations of travel forums and blogs or from trusted hotel staff. After sun dawn, it is preferred to stay within the confines of your hotel, which should be fully accredited for safety purposes. Do not forget travel insurance to cover hospitalizations and airline cancellations, etc. Get prescribed immunization associated for travel to Brazil, avoid being a target for crime by heading our recommendations and enjoy your stay in Cuiaba.

Annex A – Threat and Operational Hazard Definitions

 Threat Factors Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED THREAT: No imminent threats have been identified.

LOW: Possible hostile intent. Although it may occur, threats are mitigated if certain precautions are taken. Risk is assessed at less than 25%.
MEDIUM:  Incentive to carry out hostile intent. This is based on one or more indicators such as opportunity to act. Review our recommendations. Risk is 50%.

HIGH: High likelihood to commit a hostile act. The associated undertaking is to be avoided. This is based on the current assessment of the vulnerability factor. Risk is higher than 75%.

Hazard Definitions

NO RECOGNIZED HAZARD: No hazard has been identified.

LOW: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is greater than in Canada. Serious illness, injury, death are moderately more likely. Precautionary measures may be necessary. 
MEDIUM: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injuries, fatalities are probable and the chances of surviving injuries are less than in Canada. Precautionary measures are necessary.
HIGH: The hazard posed by the mentioned factor is such that serious disease, injury or fatality is/are extreme. Prolonged exposure will result in serious injury/illness and/or fatality and this hazard is to be avoided based on the indicators for the assessment.

Annex B – Terminology

 Our definitions & associated key words

Government Forces: Military, Police, para-military members. Uniformed or not. Bribes, corruption, unreliability, illegal arrest or detainment.

Kidnappings: Actual acts reported, known areas renowned for and opportunities for.
Crimes: Crimes against persons to include assault, robbery, carjacking, rape, murder, crimes of opportunity and by profiling. Crimes against property to include burglary, identity theft, larceny, auto theft, carjacking, cyber scams.
Gangs: Crimes that include multiple perpetrators, access to prostitution, bribery, extortion, and blackmailing.
Terrorism/Insurgency: Areas with history of acts, presence of, popular or perceived support for.
Biases: How will the traveller(s) be perceived in host country. Vulnerabilities may include one or a combination of the following; race, religion, ethnic background, language(s) spoken, skin color, gender, sexual orientation, mixed-race couple, past visas in passport(s), political affiliation, financial status, nationality, employer, etc.

References:

Full disclosure and attribution are available upon request.Three confidential sources will be intentionally omitted.

We stand fully behind our accurate assessments.

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.  

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #16 (04 APRIL-10 APRIL)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 05 April:

1.  We retweeted from @BateFelix  Two Italian priests and a Canadian nun kidnapped in northern Cameroon - Vatican radio http://reut.rs/1jeXfEh 

2.  Thailand update: We have indicators that a military coup could occur due to frictions between key personalities. Events in the next 48-72 hours could be decisive. Risks of mounting violence in Bangkok could be a driving factor.

3.  We retweeted from @BreakDengue  In the 60's 15,000 people were infected with dengue each year. Today 390 Million. Where's the media?

From 07 April:

4.  Cambodia Update: Rare good news? Reported dengue cases so far in 2014 are down (http://phnompenhpost.com ). Rainy season soon...

From 08 April:

5.  Honduras update: Filipino crew member of cruise ship was shot dead in Roatan. Violent gangs migrating there cannot be discounted.

From 09 April:

6.  FIFA Brazil update: UK's FCO will provide "up to date" travel advice for travellers for 2014 World Cup on 29 May. Common sense tips are given for now. Another example of gov't not providing assessment for what is likely to happen during the Games, ahead. We can. Consult us!

7.  UK gov't reassess Sharm el-Sheikh. This is an indicator of degrading security & follows a trend that we assessed. http://o.canada.com/travel/britain-sends-security-team-to-assess-terror-threat-at-egyptian-resorts/ …

Our comment: It seems that whatever we read, see, or watch on TV there is always events abroad that makes us think "is it safe to travel any longer?"

Obviously common sense, due diligence as well as careful planning will partially alleviate possible unfortunate situations, especially when it is reasonable to foresee some circumstances and should dictate where to go or not.

For example, the Republic of Cameroon is a destination at a higher risk due to certain reasons however the northern parts of the country bordering Nigeria have seen many incursions by the militant Islamist group Boko Haram. To have Christian priests and a nun present in the area, carrying out very worthy humanitarian work was nonetheless ill advised given the threat of retribution by a terrorist group that have both capability and intent to target these persons. Likewise, it is also not recommended to visit a destination that is at risk of widespread civil unrest, where endemics are occurring or when travel is discouraged.

Many countries that are classified as high risk today were safe to travel or even to live in 30 years ago. What has changed? More importantly what is the trend? Will safe countries today become dangerous to visit in 10 years? Are there any hope that higher risk regions today will become safer for travel in five years? What usually triggers an overall security degradation for a particular country? Many factors must be considered. For us at PAR-SEC Consulting we have identified three factors that can shape and influence where a country is headed:
     - Demographics/ethnic shifts

     - Economic opportunities for all and education

     - Good governance and democracy

The above are encompassing many other sub components such as the absence of corruption, the lack of persecution of a specific minority, persistent political instability, etc. The degrading socio-economic situation of a country is a clear trigger for civil unrest. Venezuela comes to mind. Sectarian violence tends to be the flavour of the day and examples abound. On the other hand, most of Europe is a at a low risk for a serious security degradation.

Our outlook: Consider that during a poll conducted by CNN 67% of respondents from more than 70 countries identified security and safety as key factors that influenced their travel decisions. More and more in the future, travellers will require sound advice based on actionable intelligence to mitigate threats, hazards and risks. Innovation is required for tomorrow's challenges for travellers to higher risk countries. By 2050, it is believed that 70% of the world population will be concentrated in both sub-Saharan Africa and in the Middle-East. The overall classification of high risk for many of those countries should remain if not degrade further: urbanization without sanitation will bring pandemics or even new diseases. Crimes of opportunity may become the norm for survival without any basic means for life. It is likely - or at least plausible - that many areas of the globe will not be advisable for travel, based on many factors, some of which we have enumerated above. As a general trend, we judge that the world that we live in will become less secure where prejudices and poverty will breed extremism and terrorism, as one of many possible outcomes. Sound travel advice that incorporate predictive elements will become the norm.
Lastly, here is a potentially deadly situation, as reported from @TrueNomads.             

Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog. 

TRAVEL RISKS ASSESSMENTS AND PRIVILEGED AWARENESS

Travel has rapidly evolved in the past few decades. More people travel than ever before. In the years following the end of World War two, the automobile was the vehicle of choice for travel and leisure while by the end of the 20th century, air travel became the norm for a new generation of travellers. This trend of air travel's reign is not about to slow down. The IATA reported recently that demand for air travel will grow and that by 2016 airlines will carry 3.6 billion passengers, a 25% increase from 2011! We all know that travel nowadays is not without risks and for many reasons such as severe weather that can cancel a flight, the many post 9/11 travel restrictions or various health hazards at the destination.
In the past few decades many new services have surfaced to mitigate certain constraints, and no doubt, due to a legitimate demand from travellers. One such service is travel insurance, now offered by the vast majority of travel professionals and by airlines. Usually, travel insurance is intended to cover medical expenses, financial defaults of travel suppliers and other losses. This service was originally provided in response to the growth in international travel, to fill a requirement but has tripled in sales since 9/11. This particular industry has evolved rapidly and now offers kidnapping and ransom insurance as well as emergency evacuations. While 99.9% of travellers will never require these options, prevention and due diligence are appropriate under today's travel norms.
Another service for travellers is provided by some governments for their citizens who travel internationally and is comprised of advisories, tips and warnings. These services are free and offer good insight into the present situation for most countries worldwide and are generally intended to inform their citizens of what they need to know prior to travel. Some private firms, such as travel risk mitigation companies offer personalized reports for a fee that are often very comparable to government travel advice or other free services. They typically offer additional information and insight based on the current political situation of the traveller's destination with varying degrees of effectiveness. 
Travel forums are always popular, are free and offer a wealth of tips, knowledge and peer sharing experiences that accurately supplement information requirements in often near real time and accessible from nearly anywhere.
A fourth alternative for travellers is very specific in nature and addresses the obvious requirements for corporations who operate in high threat environments or business travellers to countries at higher risks. The Algerian gas plant attack of 2013 or today's kidnapping of priests in the Cameroon tend to justify such services. These protective services are however very expensive and are obviously out of reach for most private travellers which is unfortunate because they best mitigate most unforeseen threats.

To summarize, today's traveller needs to know of safety related information prior to departure. Their government travel advice, obtaining visas, getting necessary immunization and purchasing travel insurance. Ready?
What is missing from the above is a predictive element that will provide additional insight into what is likely to happen in the next day, week or even month for the traveller once he or she is on the ground. Advance warning of likely coming events constitutes a full picture for travellers and remains a service that is rarely offered at this time. We offer the service which is achieved via accurate assessments of threats, hazards and other risks so the traveller can adjust accordingly, well in advance. Travellers now have access to a new service that is not reactive (we do not report the news) and will offer privileged knowledge and awareness of what is likely to occur next. Of course this service is not meant for everybody and during a first (free) consultation we will determine this. If you are a regular traveller to countries that are at a higher risk (or as defined by your government) or you judge that you have critical information requirements prior to travel our services will satisfactorily address your several security needs.


Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. 
We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.

WEEKLY ROUND-UP #15 (28 MARCH-03 APRIL)

We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.

From 31 March: 

1.  Kenya update: It is likely that government forces will heighten clashes with suspected Al-Shabaab & Somalis. Collateral risks possible. Mombasa area especially at risk. Consult us prior to travel there.

Our comment: On 01 April, the day after we tweeted our Kenya update, Kenyan authorities had reportedly arrested "more than 650 (Somalis) after bomb blasts", triggered by the death of six people by bomb attacks the previous day in Nairobi. This type of attack can usually be attributed to Islamist extremists as it follows clear trends.  On Tuesday as well, a Muslim cleric with ties to al-Shabaab was killed, the third in two years. Kenya has been hit by a series of attacks since sending troops into southern Somalia in October 2011 to battle Al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab insurgents. The prominent faith in the country is 84% Christian (of which nearly half are protestants) while Islam amounts to approximately 11% or about 5 000 000 of the total population. Previously, on 28 March an attack against a church in the Mombasa area was reported, killing six. Back in September 2013, there was the mall attack. But enough of reporting the news!

Our outlook:  Kenyan authorities have taken a "anti-terrorist" posture since last week, following a string of attacks from suspected al-Shabaab by issuing strong statements and stepping up security measures against terror suspects. Somali refugees were ordered to return to designated camps and press reports mentioned that a "shoot to kill" order had been carried out. The Somali community in Kenya has been especially targeted whenever attacks are suspected to be terrorist in origin. This is likely to lead Islamist extremist groups to react by furthering attacks against Kenya. Today, armed police began patrolling the streets of Mombasa, which is a popular tourist destination. For now. 
Given the fact that the Kenyan government just announced that their troops in Somalia will not end the war against Al-Shabaab until they are defeated, future attacks against Kenya are basically assured. We judge with confidence that this will lead to a degradation of the security situation for most parts of Kenya. An asymmetric insurgency is extremely difficult to effectively deal with and this will continue to be the likely fashion for future attacks. As a Muslim group is scheduled to have a peaceful protest set for Friday 04 April in Mombasa and given the fact that previous killings of clerics have sparked deadly riots, with supporters clashing with the police, the opportunities for retribution or revenge attacks will persist. Our outlook also includes a clear risk of collateral threat for travellers to urban areas of Kenya while kidnappings are highly likely to be reported.

 
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting

Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.