We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.
From 05 April:
1. We retweeted from @BateFelix Two Italian priests and a Canadian nun kidnapped in northern Cameroon - Vatican radio
Our outlook: Consider that during a poll conducted by CNN 67% of respondents from more than 70 countries identified security and safety as key factors that influenced their travel decisions. More and more in the future, travellers will require sound advice based on actionable intelligence to mitigate threats, hazards and risks. Innovation is required for tomorrow's challenges for travellers to higher risk countries. By 2050, it is believed that 70% of the world population will be concentrated in both sub-Saharan Africa and in the Middle-East. The overall classification of high risk for many of those countries should remain if not degrade further: urbanization without sanitation will bring pandemics or even new diseases. Crimes of opportunity may become the norm for survival without any basic means for life. It is likely - or at least plausible - that many areas of the globe will not be advisable for travel, based on many factors, some of which we have enumerated above. As a general trend, we judge that the world that we live in will become less secure where prejudices and poverty will breed extremism and terrorism, as one of many possible outcomes. Sound travel advice that incorporate predictive elements will become the norm.
Lastly, here is a potentially deadly situation, as reported from @TrueNomads.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free. We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Travel has rapidly evolved in the past few decades. More people travel than ever before. In the years following the end of World War two, the automobile was the vehicle of choice for travel and leisure while by the end of the 20th century, air travel became the norm for a new generation of travellers. This trend of air travel's reign is not about to slow down. The IATA reported recently that demand for air travel will grow and that by 2016 airlines will carry 3.6 billion passengers, a 25% increase from 2011! We all know that travel nowadays is not without risks and for many reasons such as severe weather that can cancel a flight, the many post 9/11 travel restrictions or various health hazards at the destination.
In the past few decades many new services have surfaced to mitigate certain constraints, and no doubt, due to a legitimate demand from travellers. One such service is travel insurance, now offered by the vast majority of travel professionals and by airlines. Usually, travel insurance is intended to cover medical expenses, financial defaults of travel suppliers and other losses. This service was originally provided in response to the growth in international travel, to fill a requirement but has tripled in sales since 9/11. This particular industry has evolved rapidly and now offers kidnapping and ransom insurance as well as emergency evacuations. While 99.9% of travellers will never require these options, prevention and due diligence are appropriate under today's travel norms.
Another service for travellers is provided by some governments for their citizens who travel internationally and is comprised of advisories, tips and warnings. These services are free and offer good insight into the present situation for most countries worldwide and are generally intended to inform their citizens of what they need to know prior to travel. Some private firms, such as travel risk mitigation companies offer personalized reports for a fee that are often very comparable to government travel advice or other free services. They typically offer additional information and insight based on the current political situation of the traveller's destination with varying degrees of effectiveness.
Travel forums are always popular, are free and offer a wealth of tips, knowledge and peer sharing experiences that accurately supplement information requirements in often near real time and accessible from nearly anywhere.
A fourth alternative for travellers is very specific in nature and addresses the obvious requirements for corporations who operate in high threat environments or business travellers to countries at higher risks. The Algerian gas plant attack of 2013 or today's kidnapping of priests in the Cameroon tend to justify such services. These protective services are however very expensive and are obviously out of reach for most private travellers which is unfortunate because they best mitigate most unforeseen threats.
To summarize, today's traveller needs to know of safety related information prior to departure. Their government travel advice, obtaining visas, getting necessary immunization and purchasing travel insurance. Ready?
What is missing from the above is a predictive element that will provide additional insight into what is likely to happen in the next day, week or even month for the traveller once he or she is on the ground. Advance warning of likely coming events constitutes a full picture for travellers and remains a service that is rarely offered at this time. We offer the service which is achieved via accurate assessments of threats, hazards and other risks so the traveller can adjust accordingly, well in advance. Travellers now have access to a new service that is not reactive (we do not report the news) and will offer privileged knowledge and awareness of what is likely to occur next. Of course this service is not meant for everybody and during a first (free) consultation we will determine this. If you are a regular traveller to countries that are at a higher risk (or as defined by your government) or you judge that you have critical information requirements prior to travel our services will satisfactorily address your several security needs.
Every
travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate
research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against
the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can
determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.
We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
We
will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and
expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the
security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability
assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are
analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed.
If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The
goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research
that we do.
From 31 March:
1. Kenya update: It is likely that government forces will heighten clashes with
suspected Al-Shabaab & Somalis. Collateral risks possible. Mombasa area especially at risk. Consult us prior to travel there.
Our comment: On 01 April, the day after we tweeted our Kenya update, Kenyan authorities had reportedly arrested "more than 650 (Somalis) after bomb blasts", triggered by the death of six people by bomb attacks the previous day in Nairobi. This type of attack can usually be attributed to Islamist extremists as it follows clear trends. On Tuesday as well, a Muslim cleric with ties to al-Shabaab was killed, the third in two years. Kenya has been hit by a series of attacks
since sending troops into southern Somalia in October 2011 to battle
Al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab insurgents. The
prominent faith in the country is 84% Christian (of which nearly half
are protestants) while Islam amounts to approximately 11% or about 5 000
000 of the total population. Previously, on 28 March an attack against a church in the Mombasa area was reported, killing six. Back in September 2013, there was the mall attack. But enough of reporting the news!
Our outlook: Kenyan authorities have taken a "anti-terrorist" posture since last week, following a string of attacks from suspected al-Shabaab by issuing strong statements and stepping up security measures against terror suspects. Somali refugees were ordered to return to designated camps and press reports mentioned that a "shoot to kill" order had been carried out. The Somali community in Kenya has been especially targeted whenever attacks are suspected to be terrorist in origin. This is likely to lead Islamist extremist groups to react by furthering attacks against Kenya. Today, armed police began patrolling the streets of Mombasa, which is a popular tourist destination. For now.
Given the fact that the Kenyan government just announced that their troops
in Somalia will not end the war against Al-Shabaab until they are defeated, future attacks against Kenya are basically assured. We judge with confidence that this will lead to a degradation of the security situation for most parts of Kenya. An asymmetric insurgency is extremely difficult to effectively deal with and this will continue to be the likely fashion for future attacks. As a Muslim group is scheduled to have a peaceful protest set for Friday 04 April in Mombasa and given the fact that previous killings of clerics have sparked deadly riots, with supporters clashing with the police, the opportunities for retribution or revenge attacks will persist. Our outlook also includes a clear risk of collateral threat for travellers to urban areas of Kenya while kidnappings are highly likely to be reported.
Every
travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate
research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against
the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can
determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
We
will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and
expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the
security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability
assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are
analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed.
If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The
goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research
that we do. This week, our Round-Up will focus on prospective business partnerships with smaller travel agencies, or with any person in the process of starting this type of business.
From 24 March:
1. See how we offer info for travellers found nowhere else: From assessments to proven advice for some destinations.
2. Are you a small or start up travel agency? We will provide you with a key advantage over your competition!
3. We are actively seeking partnerships with start-up & small travel agencies to provide you with a competitive edge.
From 25 March:
1. Our services to the travel industry include vulnerability assessments
& aspects of travel surety. Ask us how we can make your business
grow!
Our comment: We have implemented a new service that can radically transform certain travel agencies in both competitiveness and popularity. We have observed that many travel professionals actively recommend government travel websites for safety and due diligence to their customers. However, based on the fact that government travel safety websites most always offer their advice and warning after events such as murders, violent protests or a wave of kidnappings have already happened, we know that their services are reactive in nature. Predictive elements or actual assessments of future events are not offered (or extremely rare) for their citizens. Most travel security companies offer similar services to government advice however they also promote an array of different services that are complicated or expensive, because they rarely - if ever - bring a predictive element. Where we are different is that we tell our clients what is likely to affect them while abroad, in a higher risk destination. We do this by studying past trends and patterns but also make sense of what it means for the traveller and we also include an accurate predictive element for what matters for the traveller so they can focus on what is needed. In the end, tourists and business travellers are left hanging for what can negatively affect them while on the ground. They were made aware that a specific area is dangerous based on a particular event. They were probably (hopefully) briefed on what it means for them and how to mitigate and prevent that particular event to happen to them. Besides that they do not know how the security situation will likely evolve and how to be pro-active in order to remain safer while enjoying the trip.
In a nut shell we are different from most travel security firms because we offer accurate assessments for our clients and provide them with easy to implement courses of action. There is a growing demand for these services. Why? Many travel risk management companies (actually the variations in naming is next to appalling!) offer a myriad of services in the hopes of circumventing important information gaps that they cannot answer for their clients. Let's not forget that the world has become - unfortunately - a much more dangerous place.
Our outlook: We are looking for new or small travel agencies for a durable partnership. We simply require that you offer travel packages to higher risk destinations, not countries such as Belgium, Canada, New Zealand, Croatia, etc. We are offering you a competitive edge that surely will empower your enterprise. For us it's all about committing our focus for a travel industry member on a recurring basis, to highlight our new concept in an exclusive manner and to witness the mutual rewards of teamwork. Our services are not meant for all travellers that must travel to unstable regions. Our services are cost effective and we are mindful of the competitive nature of the travel industry. All inquiries will be promptly answered at no obligations on your part. We wish to get our message out and are confident in the exclusivity of our services. As a goodwill gesture we will provide our services for free to any prospective partner as a proof of concept of our services, until they are confident to go forward with us.
If you believe that you are interested in a partnership with us, contact us with no obligations at:
parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Please read this prior to contacting us.
We have noted that many travel risk management companies make a liberal use of the word "intelligence" on their websites, which is part of advertising their numerous services for travellers abroad. We will itemize a few of many examples in this blog post and show that the use of the word intelligence is done erroneously. This will lead many readers to correctly conclude that the use of the term is indicative of a confused understanding of what exactly this important word means. When these companies do not fully grasp the basic elements of the trade while charging their clients expensive amounts of money for various services is ironic in the least...
By definition, intelligence can be outlined as "the gathering or distribution of information, especially secret information", "the collection of information of military or political value" or most evidently " intelligence is information that has been analyzed and refined so that it is useful to policymakers in making decisions". In essence, intelligence is a finished product that must be timely in its dissemination to the user. The key item in intelligence is the presence of a predictive element (an assessment) . In order to fully appreciate what intelligence exactly is, the "intelligence cycle" is a followed process. Depending on the agency or the country, the intelligence cycle typically has four, five or even six steps. We at PAR-SEC Consulting usually use four. They are, in order:
1. Direction;
2. Collection;
3. Processing, and
4. Dissemination.
These four steps constitute transforming raw information into actionable intelligence with a predictive element and delivered in a timely manner.
Direction: This is when our clients retain our services for us to advise them by way of a vulnerability assessment on the potential risks, threats and hazards at their specific destination. Through a request for information, we are able to vet what information is required from our client.
Collection: From our direction we can now collate pertinent information of relevance. We focus entirely on meeting the needs of the client, so the research carried out is usually very extensive. We also carry out "side collection" which can be used to disprove potential assessments due to several reasons such as biases.
Processing: This is probably the most important step in intelligence production. This is the phase in which information is fully exploited and also includes a "so what" factor. Analysis is carried out, the final stage prior to the full assessment (what is likely to occur next) to articulate the intelligence product.
Dissemination: This is when a finished product, referred to as an intelligence document is ready for our client. It must be actionable in nature and it must be timely or the intelligence provided is redundant.
So we now know the essentials about what exactly constitutes intelligence. It must be predictive in nature, its dissemination must be timely and it is the result of the transformation of raw information into an actionable product via analysis.It certainly cannot be confused for anything else! Of course, when we are talking about intelligence, we are referring to open source (OSINT) intelligence, although we generally have access to confidential sources that are on the ground.
This is how several travel risk management or travel security companies use (most properly how they misuse) the word intelligence:
1. "Regional Intelligence Package: Daily updates, incident
alerts, regional summaries and special reports on the world’s most volatile and
dynamic regions."
Our take: Updates suggest after fact information. The rest of the phrase implies reactive services. No predictive elements and no assessments are volunteered.
2. The Executive Daily Intelligence Brief (...) this is a summary of information and open-sources concerning significant global issues.
Our take: Information summary is not intelligence.
3. The Weekly Intelligence Summary (...) report highlighting major local events and global activity designed to address the different risk areas of your business and its operations.
Our take: This is alike regurgitating news reports tailored for clients.
4. Intelligence is gathered and analysed based on the travellers personal, business and operational travel itinerary to ensure....b
Our take: Intelligence is not gathered. Information is gathered.
We could keep going on this exercise however we believe that at this point, the misuse of the term intelligence has hereby been identified. We could speculate on the reasons why certain terms are bent into different purposes but we cannot avoid the fact that a certain discredit could be attributed to those who do not fully grasp basic comprehension of tools that constitute building blocs of their trade.
We carry out intelligence assessments for our clients. Those assessments are predictive in nature while we also quantify the probability for certain events to occur. We also provide clear courses of actions in order to mitigate risks, threats or hazards that are likely to occur, along with timeliness. We stand fully behind our intelligence assessments.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
Have you ever travelled somewhere abroad thinking that all would be fine? Have you ever thought that something bad could potentially happen to you? Share some of your anecdotes here in our comments section at the bottom. We have collected several tales of travel that could have went really bad.
Note: This is not about scaring tourists away from where they decide to travel, but is a reminder of the ugly stuff that can happen...
1. Maureen Webster has a great website pertaining to travel safety and risks to Mexico. Read her twitter feed here. She has accumulated countless stories of a well deserved vacation that went bad in Mexico.
2. This story happened to this guy while in Bogota, Colombia: "I had a pretty far out experience on my 1st day in Bogota, Colombia - i had just finished a full day of sightseeing around the city, and onroute back to my hotel @ around 4:30-5pm 2 locals approached from behind, 1 putting a knife to my throat and the other putting a gun to my back, demanding the bag off my back and the money from my pockets - without even having a chance to take my bag off, the guy with the knife cut the straps from my shoulder! then the guy with the gun put the it to my head while emptying my pockets. Before i knew what had happened they were in a car that was trailing behind us (i wasnt even aware it was there!) - it then dawned on me what exactly was in my bag, so through what i guess was frustration & emotion i let out a pretty loud curse word - now im guessing they thought i was shouting @ them, as this prompted them to put the gun out the window and shoot @ me - thankfully missing! but i saw the grass/dirt spit up around 2 metres away from me where the bullets hit - i found new levels of fear that day. Aside from this incident i found Colombia to be an amazing country to travel, and the locals which helped me with the police report are the true faces of the country, but as with many capital cities it has its issues! My advice, dont do anything alone in Bogota, this was my only mistake". (Grammar mistakes are his. We concur with his advice).
3. Crooked cops from Brazil story, just ahead of the FIFA World Cup: "'Roly' was partying it up in Rio de Janeiro with his mate Frank. After a night on the beers at a local backpackers, Roly and Frank hit the streets to take part in the rowdy block party. A Brazilian in a suit approached them and asked if they would be interested in purchasing a certain illegal substance. The obliging young Aussies took him up on his offer, and not a moment later found themselves pushed into the back of a police car. The policemen read the riot act in Portuguese, and rather than driving to the cop station, drove them to a dark alleyway on the outskirts of town. The trio were strip searched, revealing the contraband, a bankcard and 50 real (about $30AUD) in Roly's y-fronts. "They didn't speak any English, but our Portuguese was improving rapidly", says Roly. "If you ever want to learn a language quickly, put yourself in a position where the language is necessary to keep yourself out of a Brazilian prison! The crooked cops began with an offer of a 1000 real pay-out (roughly $700AUD), or a trip to federal prison. We weren't going to settle so easily, so we started to bargain. After a war of attrition we settled on a bribe of 550 real ($350AUD). It was decided that Frank and the businessman would take a taxi to the ATM to get the cash and I would be held hostage by the police at their station. Frank was driven out to the airport, where he swiped his card at an ATM, and watched in horror as it slipped into a gap in the machine and disappeared from sight, never to be seen again. Our freedom had just fallen through the cracks."
By dawn the police had gotten bored with Roly, and decided to send him on his merry way, with his 50 real, no less, to use as cab fare. Meanwhile, Frank was scouring the city in search of mates from the night before that would consider loaning him ransom money. He eventually gathered the bribe, returned to the police station, paid his dues and reunited with his friend."
4. A few scary stories that happened while vacationing in Thailand.
5. Finally, we have an NBC news report about tourists that were kidnapped in Kenya, back in 2011.
There are countless other horror stories that happen worldwide to travellers. They fortunately only constitute 1%. 99% are usually trouble free.
Is this account biased?
Tell us your horror travel story and/or suggestions by commenting below!
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
We will go back on some of our tweets of interest of the past week and expand further on the indicators that we presented, as they affect the security situation of a country. When we produce vulnerability assessments for our clients, six vulnerability (threats) factors are analyzed and assessed while four hazards are also analyzed and assessed. If gaps are identified they are covered by atmospherics elements. The goal of our tweets is to highlight and provide examples of the research that we do.
From 14 March:
1. Travelling soon to Armenia? Just abiding to your gov't travel warnings & advisories will not be enough: many information gaps exist. Consult us to stay safer & find out what your gov't has left out as critical info travellers must need prior & while in Yerevan & [other] areas.
From 15 March:
2. Going to the FIFA World Cup in Brazil? How about your safety? Why can't your government travel warning websites or your trusted travel agency tell you this? We can. Consult us prior to travel to higher risk destinations.
From 18 March:
3. How often your gov't travel advice can be off the mark: Canada's D-FAIT deletes travel warning [terrorism risks] for Sochi on 17 March [now that the Olympics are over]. Nil predictive elements [was ever provided], over cautious advice & important info gaps [were supplied]. Governments are not in the business to assess what could occur next for their citizens while abroad. We identify all info gaps & advise/assess what is likely to occur next & our security recommendations.
Our comment: Your government offers travel tips, services and advice for citizens who travel overseas. Private companies also offer similar services. In fact, there are hundreds of travel risk management companies worldwide these days and they can easily cater to the requirements of all types of travellers; business executives, the rich, tourists, interest groups, company employees, etc. They all have one sole common point: the desire to mitigate security risks of their clients. Some companies offer multiple services such as concierge services, duty of care on behalf of employers, emergency evacuation when it is time sensitive, to address possible unethical conducts to avoid or pre-travel advisories and briefings. Most of those services are very costly and can even be similar to some free services and advice supplied by many governments. Technology plays a great part in the capability of certain of those companies to support their clients while they are abroad. A very simple service of convenience are text alerts or e-mail updates but in some cases it is possible that cell phone coverage is non-existent.... Or internet support is archaic... While it may be true, some companies nonetheless carry titles such as "market leader" or "we use award winning technology" or some companies are very proud to highlight the fact that retired Generals, CEOs or high ranking government officials sit on their board of diectors. Sometimes, the services offered are complicated, are time consuming to execute, can be "gimmicky" in appeal or rarely practical. Often, clients who retain the services of these risk management companies have uncomplicated requirements and they need to know what is required to avoid being hurt, sick and to get out unharmed. They need to know before they travel there and nobody has a crystal ball to see the future.
That's when intelligence comes to play. That is what we do best.
That General on the board of a prestigious risk management company is there for his connections or for his administrative experience, not for his intelligence analytical competences. We will not explain at great length what we do or how we discern and collect information, study trends, analyze or do things in general. We have expanded on these topics in previous blog posts. It is generally admitted that several different intelligence techniques can be used by the hundreds of travel risk management firms out there. We have also concluded that many travel advice websites liberally use the word "intelligence" without making any assessments or offering an outlook! For example a "Travel Risk Intelligence Solution" company has a very confusing use of the word intelligence as they do not remotely come close to offer any assessment for what is likely to occur next for its clients. We have supported with success many military operations in hostile environments, being there ourselves for months at a time, assisting in the planning of combat involving thousands of troops and millions of dollars worth of mission essential equipment. Repeatedly. As former intelligence analysts we spent incalculable amount of time supporting military Commanders in their decision making process to save lives and to prevail. We did not acquire our experience wearing suits and ties, working out of a skyscraper. While we admit that we are not PHDs in geopolitics, international relations or formal academics that have worked for very successful and high profile institutions we offer a service that distinguishes us. Usually most travel risk management companies will tell their clients:
a) What happened, and
b) What it means.
Beyond that, they will want to exercise due diligence and update their clients when new threats, hazards or risks arise. Or... to paraphrase one of those companies, "to inform the client of evolving events often before they happen". Sometimes superfluous advice is provided, while at some other time non-committal assessments are made while using highly academic terminology. Overall most advice is reactive in nature, alike reporting the news and involves updating or modifying the advice they provide as required. While this can be normal, it may lack fundamental insight. This is what we provide for our clients, thus distinguishing us:
a) What happened;
b) What it means, and
c) What is likely to occur next.
As a reminder, we use Twitter mostly as a promotional platform however almost daily we will tweet indicators to the security situation of a country of monitoring interest or concern. Indicators constitute small pieces of raw information with which we can make sense, analyze and transform that information into intelligence. On occasions, not all assessments come to realization and to alleviate this outcome, we constantly carry out monitoring. Sometimes we do freely offer assessments via twitter or on this blog as a public service and for us to establish credibility as a newer travel security advice firm.
We tweeted this on 28 November: "South Sudan: NGOs should be advised that violent muggings and robbery reports are on the rise for Juba. Criminality rate likely to escalate."
In our first Weekly Round-Up we commented: " NGOs and gas & oil contractors should be very cautious about the rising criminality rate that has been escalating in recent weeks. The security situation is likely to degrade with little or no warning." This was not a lucky guess, a result of speculation or "a gut feeling". Within weeks, a political power struggle broke out, a serious security degradation occurred, expats were evacuated and hundreds of local nationals have died since.
This is not unique. We tweeted this on 05 December: " Central African Republic: The rebellion is likely shifting into a religion based conflict. Of the few eventualities, we judge that the region may suffer from the effects of a potential civil war. Worst outcome likely infiltration of AQ affiliated extremists from north." A month later, Amnesty International reported several massacres committed by the Christian group called Anti-Balaka against Muslim civilians (even if the Seleka rebels being Muslim did overthrow the government earlier in 2013, full fledged religious massacres had not begun yet). We all sadly know what is occurring there since. On 21 February we articulated on the probability that "It won't take long before an al-Qaeda offshoot appears in the CAR."
On 19 March (3 1/2 months after our first tweet), a representative of a Crisis Management Assistance company tweeted: "Some more mujahideen warnings issued in response to including from & "
By now, most of our followers are aware that we did assess that terror events at the sites of the Sochi Games were highly unlikely to occur. We assessed this accurately beginning back on 09, 11, 29, 30 December, again on 29 January, on 11 February and on 07 March via tweets. Again, these seven tweets did not constitute an "educated guess" on our part because that's when intelligence comes to play and that is what we do best. We are not aware of another travel "risk management company" that accurately assessed this outcome. A very reputed and successful Global Intelligence website based in Texas tweeted this on 29 December: "Today's attack shows it is unlikely that Moscow will be able to fully secure Russia before the ."
Another tweet from an "innovative global security company specialising in travel risk management, consultancy and assistance services" dated 24 February reminded us that `It is impossible to predict when a suicide bombing will occur. We do monitor Lebanon closely and report on incidents asap.` While we basically concur, that admission falls short. Trend analysis could have established a probability for future events, both in time and space and quantifying that probability could also be articulated with varying degrees of confidence.
We have also highlighted our assessed outcome for the 2014 FIFA World Cup to be hosted by Brazil beginning in three months. That information can be found here.
Finally, on 10 February, a gentleman from the RSA tweeted about his own nation: "I predict we'll have our spring in about 7 months".
We will check back in September...
Our outlook: We offer actionable, discreet and accurate vulnerability assessments. We do not offer complicated services of GPS tracking, emergency evacuation services, travel safety reports (your government offers this for free) or other complicated services that are costly and indicative of the reactive nature of most travel "risk management" companies. We, however, provide easy to implement guidelines and recommendations that will enable our clients to have a safe and successful trip. We offer probably the most cost effective advice available for travellers to higher risk countries. Ask us about our services. We are also particularly interested to partner with small, start-up companies that require to operate abroad or to collaborate with travel agencies who specialize in travel to those same destinations. We fully stand behind our intelligence assessments.
Every travel destination is uniquely different and requires adequate research, analysis and accurate assessments to properly advise against the possible threats and hazards. We welcome inquiries so we can determine your security needs. Your first consultation is always free.We invite you to review our past twitter posts @parsecconsult as well as this blog's entries.
We encourage feedback and questions to our e-mail: parsec.consulting@gmail.com
Our website: http://parsecconsulting.wix.com/parsecconsulting
Attribution: copies and redistribution of the above material in any medium or format is authorized providing full attribution is credited by using full link of present blog.
